Actually, I don't think this is a conspiracy theory but rather a fact; however, I don't know the actual numbers on a lot of these variables.
1. How many active users are there that will do their dailies each day? 10 million? 5? 1? Even if it's only 1 million, then
2. Most of the active players probably reroll their 50 gold and below quests. Nearly half of all the quest possibilites are 40 gold, so chances are after a reroll you might end up with 40.... but given the contest rules, we have to do that quest anyway to get the max amount of entries (instead of waiting a day to reroll that particular quest).
3. This will result in a loss of gold for pretty much every active Hearthstone user that would otherwise maximize their quest gold output. Figuring conservatively at 1 million active users and a loss of about 100 gold over 14 days (this is hard to estimate, but I always inevitably end up with 3x 40 gold quests and am forced into completing one after every few weeks ([another estimate]). 100 lost gold would be 7 lost gold a day from being forced into completing all those extra 40 gold quests during these two weeks. I believe this number to be a conservative number also.
4. 1 million users losing 100 gold over two weeks = 1 million packs. Way more than the 183,000 being given away. And this number is extremely conservative. I could see it being more like 5 million packs that are being taken out of the gold pool from this
5. Blizzard once again is proving how brilliant they are.
it's called gambling. you don't have to try it, you can play your way. if you get every quest you deem worthy to complete, can you gain an average amount, and are still in the drawing anyway. if you spam complete quests, you get the maximum potential draws, and you only get one re-roll a day anyway, and if you think about it, the only quest you can't afford to reroll is the last day set. so your rerolled quests still the the chance to roll out higher than 40. and you need to complete one every day anyway to maximize your gold production via quests.
the dip will likely not reach 1 million in worth of gold, and even if it does, it's a free currency, and that's the risk of a gamble.
or you could like, not care about the competition and just play the god damm game...
I'm playing the game a plenty. I was just pointing out how clever Blizzard is with this "giveaway". At the very, very worst they're "breaking even", but I think they absolutely do profit from this in the sense that they are preventing more gold from accumulating in most active users' accounts.
So if you reroll the quest, your chance for today is over?
I don't think so. I think what he's saying is that if you what the maximum number of entries you're going to be forced to complete some dailies for 40 gold whereas normally you would avoid completing those quests so you can keep changing it out until you get on worth more
So if you reroll the quest, your chance for today is over?
I don't think so. I think what he's saying is that if you what the maximum number of entries you're going to be forced to complete some dailies for 40 gold whereas normally you would avoid completing those quests so you can keep changing it out until you get on worth more
This. And we all know most of us active users are going to try and maximize our entries, myself included. I know that I am likely forfeiting a pack of cards or perhaps more to do this.
This is more akin to gambling and wagering a pack of cards or two to try and win the lottery. The funny thing is that the 50,000 getting the 3 packs are not doing much more than breaking even.
There is just one flaw in your theory: you are assuming that every player rerolls their quest to get not 40 gold usually. But most players don't do this.
I did mention that all the variables are estimates, but I don't think it's a stretch that out of 70 million accounts 1 million of them reroll their quests and hold their 40s to reroll for another day (assuming it's not Win 3 matches or deal 100 damage, etc).
I get what you're saying OP, the potential lose of gold 140g+*X millions of players > the total reward offered. Two things: one its digital so it cost blizzard nothing in the first place either way and two the max entry per day is one:
*Entries limited to a maximum of fourteen (14) per Battle.net account and one (1) entry per day.
Most players will still average 50-60g quests for the next 14 days. And more often than not most players, even those who hold quests to reroll for more gold, end up doing on average 1 per day. So if you have 3 quests and gold > completion at 3 days you'd be forced to complete 1 anyways. You cannot get more than one entry so unless you complete all your dailies (which clearly you don't if you have 40g and reroll into 40g) the whole argument is rather moot.
The only thing anyone has to lose is a few gold if, if you only keep one quest in your queue and really 14 days at 40g for the chance to win 3000packs I'll take the lose of 140-200g. That's very very minor in the grand scheme.
I would rather see more of these style of events tbh. So the first time one appears let's not get up in arms about it instantly. In basically rewards those who play regularly for doing what they do in the first place.
I would rather see more of these style of events tbh. So the first time one appears let's not get up in arms about it instantly. In basically rewards those who play regularly for doing what they do in the first place.
I never said I was upset so I'm certainly not up in arms about it. I have no issues forfeiting that potential 100-200ish gold for the measly chance at the 1st or 2nd place prize because ultimately it's like paying $2 for a lottery ticket. Plus, I want that Lich King helm! XD
I really think people overvaluate 50g over 40g quests and 60g over 50g quests way too much. These 10 gold are worth 1 tenth of a dollar. If that upsets you, think about all the other ways you could save that money and notice how little you actually care about 1 tenth of a dollar irl.
Instead of doing a really boring 60 gold quest, you can better finish a 50 gold quest with a deck you actually like and simultaneously win 3 times which combines to 60 gold and a lot of fun. You're much better of this way.
There is just one flaw in your theory: you are assuming that every player rerolls their quest to get not 40 gold usually. But most players don't do this.
Do you have a proof or a link to that?
Or is it just your inner stommach telling you ‘most players don’t do this’?
I don't reroll quests when the reward is too low, I reroll quests when it's to win games/play cards for a class I rarely use, and that's about it.
Sometimes I reroll the higher reward quests like "win 5 as X" and am happy to get a "Win 2 games as (a more favorable) X" quest cos I've got shit to do.
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Actually, I don't think this is a conspiracy theory but rather a fact; however, I don't know the actual numbers on a lot of these variables.
1. How many active users are there that will do their dailies each day? 10 million? 5? 1? Even if it's only 1 million, then
2. Most of the active players probably reroll their 50 gold and below quests. Nearly half of all the quest possibilites are 40 gold, so chances are after a reroll you might end up with 40.... but given the contest rules, we have to do that quest anyway to get the max amount of entries (instead of waiting a day to reroll that particular quest).
3. This will result in a loss of gold for pretty much every active Hearthstone user that would otherwise maximize their quest gold output. Figuring conservatively at 1 million active users and a loss of about 100 gold over 14 days (this is hard to estimate, but I always inevitably end up with 3x 40 gold quests and am forced into completing one after every few weeks ([another estimate]). 100 lost gold would be 7 lost gold a day from being forced into completing all those extra 40 gold quests during these two weeks. I believe this number to be a conservative number also.
4. 1 million users losing 100 gold over two weeks = 1 million packs. Way more than the 183,000 being given away. And this number is extremely conservative. I could see it being more like 5 million packs that are being taken out of the gold pool from this
5. Blizzard once again is proving how brilliant they are.
it's called gambling. you don't have to try it, you can play your way. if you get every quest you deem worthy to complete, can you gain an average amount, and are still in the drawing anyway. if you spam complete quests, you get the maximum potential draws, and you only get one re-roll a day anyway, and if you think about it, the only quest you can't afford to reroll is the last day set. so your rerolled quests still the the chance to roll out higher than 40. and you need to complete one every day anyway to maximize your gold production via quests.
the dip will likely not reach 1 million in worth of gold, and even if it does, it's a free currency, and that's the risk of a gamble.
or you could like, not care about the competition and just play the god damm game...
Unpopular opinion: Rogue is OP
So if you reroll the quest, your chance for today is over?
You sir have a very active imagination.
Imagine if people put as much thought into solving world hunger as they did into their Hearthstone conspiracy theories.
Sir... the rules in the terms and conditions don't specify amount of gold per quest, merely that it is only one quest per day.
If you luck out and get the 100 gold quest, that counts. If you reroll, you still are completing a quest today.
Got it. Thanks!
I get what you're saying OP, the potential lose of gold 140g+*X millions of players > the total reward offered. Two things: one its digital so it cost blizzard nothing in the first place either way and two the max entry per day is one:
RULES
*Entries limited to a maximum of fourteen (14) per Battle.net account and one (1) entry per day.
Most players will still average 50-60g quests for the next 14 days. And more often than not most players, even those who hold quests to reroll for more gold, end up doing on average 1 per day. So if you have 3 quests and gold > completion at 3 days you'd be forced to complete 1 anyways. You cannot get more than one entry so unless you complete all your dailies (which clearly you don't if you have 40g and reroll into 40g) the whole argument is rather moot.
The only thing anyone has to lose is a few gold if, if you only keep one quest in your queue and really 14 days at 40g for the chance to win 3000packs I'll take the lose of 140-200g. That's very very minor in the grand scheme.
I would rather see more of these style of events tbh. So the first time one appears let's not get up in arms about it instantly. In basically rewards those who play regularly for doing what they do in the first place.
Has the event started yet, or is it after nerf patch?
Mwahahaha, what will they do with all that virtual gold they just swindled us out of getting??
I really think people overvaluate 50g over 40g quests and 60g over 50g quests way too much. These 10 gold are worth 1 tenth of a dollar. If that upsets you, think about all the other ways you could save that money and notice how little you actually care about 1 tenth of a dollar irl.
Instead of doing a really boring 60 gold quest, you can better finish a 50 gold quest with a deck you actually like and simultaneously win 3 times which combines to 60 gold and a lot of fun. You're much better of this way.
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<3.14159265359 you!
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I don't reroll quests when the reward is too low, I reroll quests when it's to win games/play cards for a class I rarely use, and that's about it.
Sometimes I reroll the higher reward quests like "win 5 as X" and am happy to get a "Win 2 games as (a more favorable) X" quest cos I've got shit to do.