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HAHA I see that and agree with that. So now we know its not 50% for the faerie dragon right? 3/7
Sure I was wrong its cool. Thought process was skewed.
truly not trying to troll. And yes I'm not qualified to discuss the processes of statistics. however I still don't see 50% if the grizzly is 12.5%
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Card Design ChampionEdit: apologies for being rude. Editing this out as to not sound like a douche. Anyway, here's a dumbed down explanation why it's 50%.
Possible Faerie Dragon scenarios
F=Face
D=Dragon
DDD0% (can't happen)Now, why does DDF have a 25% chance and DDD have 0%? I'll oversimplifying this for clarity. It's because DDD can't happen since the faerie dragon dies after DD_ and the third missile is forced to go to the face. So in this instance, you can pretend that in a world where DDD would have happened, it forces the outcome DDF. In essence, DDD and DDF are the same outcome. Because of this, DDF is twice as likely to happen as the other scenarios.
So now, we take the percentage of each scenario where the FD dies and add them together. The FD dies in scenarios 1, 2 and 3. So, 12.5%+25%+12.5%=50%
May I ask what you used to create that?
So I just tried to kill 10 million faerie dragons with arcane missiles and managed to kill 4,998,271, that's 49.983% Although I'm quite positive the 3/7 crowd will still not be convinced...
For those interested, I used Matlab:
close all;clear all;clc;
ntimes = 10000000;
nhits = 3;
health = 2;
for j=1:ntimes
h=health;
for i=1:nhits
if h >0
h=h-round(rand(1));
end
end
health_vec(j) = h;
end
number_killed=sum(health_vec==0)
probability = number_killed/ntimes
Did the same in C. 49-51% (0.49, 0.51) outputs.
const int player = 0;
const int faerie_dragon = 1;
srand(time(NULL));
int faerie_lives = 0;
int faerie_dies = 0;
for (int tests = 0; tests < 1000000; tests++)
{
int player_hit = 0;
int faerie_hit = 0;
for (int misiles = 0; misiles < 3; misiles++)
{
if (rand() % 2 == player || faerie_hit > 1)
player_hit++;
else
faerie_hit++;
}
if (faerie_hit > 1)
faerie_dies++;
else
faerie_lives++;
}
printf("faerie lived: %d times, died %d times %.02f%%", faerie_lives, faerie_dies, float(faerie_lives) / (faerie_lives + faerie_dies));
Um... how the hell did I start all of this? I was just making a simple comment, I didn't realize that it had turned into this huge debate until just now.
Anyway, to give you some reference of where I was coming from, here is the link to the Reddit thread that I originally got my information from. If you read through the whole post, his math makes sense,
Want to stay ahead of the metagame? Check out my decks! I'm a deckbuilder who likes to counter the current meta and define the meta of tomorrow.
The amount of math failure in this thread is truly disappointing. The chance is exactly 50%,
H = hit, M = miss.
This thread is... so... facepalm