Hearthpwn

Quote from GiefCat »

Considering I mostly cube and draft when I play card games nowadays, I feel like I'm going to do well in Forge :)

How many cards in your Cube?

I'll probably just play with the basic deck, until I get a good collection for a Shaman once, then just build upon that until I have all the cards I want for my perfect deck. From there I'd probably just mess around with other classes but focus of the Shaman as my main deck.

Quote from Apollo »

Quote from GiefCat »

Considering I mostly cube and draft when I play card games nowadays, I feel like I'm going to do well in Forge :)

How many cards in your Cube?

535

Quote from GiefCat »

Quote from Apollo »

Quote from GiefCat »

Considering I mostly cube and draft when I play card games nowadays, I feel like I'm going to do well in Forge :)

How many cards in your Cube?

535

Thumbs up.

Quote from Apollo »

Quote from GiefCat »

Quote from Apollo »

Quote from GiefCat »

Considering I mostly cube and draft when I play card games nowadays, I feel like I'm going to do well in Forge :)

How many cards in your Cube?

535

Thumbs up.

I cube with my friend's cube most of the time. http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=297540

I worry I might tire of a hero if I focus early on. So I'm thinking of doing a kind of hybrid strategy by getting a semi-rough deck for maybe three heroes and then work the forge with the cards that don't fit any of the three chosen heroes. Sure the building phase will take much longer. But it'll make sure I don't give up if I get tired of a hero. 

Quote from Xskarma »

Quote from panacco »

I worry I might tire of a hero if I focus early on. So I'm thinking of doing a kind of hybrid strategy by getting a semi-rough deck for maybe three heroes and then work the forge with the cards that don't fit any of the three chosen heroes. Sure the building phase will take much longer. But it'll make sure I don't give up if I get tired of a hero. 

This is mostly why I won't be going all in on 1 deck. If you then want a change, or something gets nerfed and ruins the gameplay for you or something, then you are stuck with that 1 functional deck.

My vote went to making 1 rough deck, and then keep cards. This should allow me to play decently competitive games, while still having the fun of getting random cards for other decks that will make them better. That way if I tire of a hero or deckstyle and I want to change it up, I'll have other avenues open to me.

Besides that, there's an odd sense of thrill of getting random cards, that loses it's luster a bit if you are just going to d/e everything to craft the cards you need.

I am with you there. I am not going to get all sentimental on one particular class. I know the playstyle I want to focus on though, that being very aggressive burn/aggro. I suppose I will be having to go with whatever hero will be best suited for that playstyle at a given time. Yes this will likely mean having to switch out which class/hero I play as my card collection evolves and as Blizz "modify" cards.

Quote from Xskarma »

That's the beauty of this game I think. It's easy to evolve and have waves in where something works well and is used more and more, untill a counter-deck and playstyle gets more dominant, and then that gets countered, and all the while Blizz is balancing cards and powers and bringing in new expansions full of cards that up set the general norm.

If Blizz handles the game wisely, I don't think we'll have much time to get set in our ways and stuck in a rut with 1 deck and playstyle.

One thing to bear in mind, and it is something that makes TCG/CCG interesting in my opinion... is that there WILL be FotM decks. As new cards are released, new cookie cutter decks are developed by the community. It gets to the point where most people will be running a core deck that is known, with their own little tweaks/options. I suppose this is no different to "specs" on WoW really.

One thing to bear in mind, and it is something that makes TCG/CCG interesting in my opinion... is that there WILL be FotM decks. As new cards are released, new cookie cutter decks are developed by the community. It gets to the point where most people will be running a core deck that is known, with their own little tweaks/options. I suppose this is no different to "specs" on WoW really.

That being said, "Gimmick Decks" can be hella fun, just not always competitive ;)

That being said, "Gimmick Decks" can be hella fun, just not always competitive ;)

I'll probably be playing Forge when I have packs and constructed otherwise with whatever cards I have from Forge to earn more packs to play more Forge.

Note, though, that even if you don't care about golden cards it might still be worth-while to open packs directly. If you do get a gold card you could probably DE it for quite a bit and use that dust to craft a couple other cards you want.

Quote from fr0d0b0ls0n»

You need >70% victory rate on the Forge mode to get the 3 packs back.

Actually, I think ~63% is the break-even point for Forge play. I threw some numbers into a google spreadsheet a while back to calculate the probabilities: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkSe3VorFrh6dFhvRkE0V0pqenczcjU4SUxxa3l0bHc&usp=sharing

It looks like a median player that wins 50% of their Forge games will walk away with ~0.7 packs per run after playing roughly 6 games on average (~77% of the time they don't win anything, and half the time they don't even make it to 3-3. You are most likely to finish either 1-3 or 2-3, and hit 20 wins every ~16,500 runs.)

With a 63% win rate you should be getting at least to the 5-win mark roughly half the time, playing about 8 games per run, and earning an average of ~3 packs. (You are most likely to finish 3-3, and hit 20 wins every ~280 runs.)

At 70% you'd be getting to that 5-win mark ~65% of the time, playing just under 10 games per run, and earning an average of ~6.5 packs. (You are most likely to finish 4-3, but hit 20 wins every ~50 runs.)

(The "Bonus Packs" column tracks how many of the earned packs come from the extra bonuses you get for 10/15/20 wins. The prizes at those points seemed excessive to me, but it turns out not to have a huge impact until you're win rate gets really high.)

Quote from chippydip »

I'll probably be playing Forge when I have packs and constructed otherwise with whatever cards I have from Forge to earn more packs to play more Forge.

Note, though, that even if you don't care about golden cards it might still be worth-while to open packs directly. If you do get a gold card you could probably DE it for quite a bit and use that dust to craft a couple other cards you want.

Quote from fr0d0b0ls0n»

You need >70% victory rate on the Forge mode to get the 3 packs back.

Actually, I think ~63% is the break-even point for Forge play. I threw some numbers into a google spreadsheet a while back to calculate the probabilities: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkSe3VorFrh6dFhvRkE0V0pqenczcjU4SUxxa3l0bHc&usp=sharing

It looks like a median player that wins 50% of their Forge games will walk away with ~0.7 packs per run after playing roughly 6 games on average (~77% of the time they don't win anything, and half the time they don't even make it to 3-3. You are most likely to finish either 1-3 or 2-3, and hit 20 wins every ~16,500 runs.)

With a 63% win rate you should be getting at least to the 5-win mark roughly half the time, playing about 8 games per run, and earning an average of ~3 packs. (You are most likely to finish 3-3, and hit 20 wins every ~280 runs.)

At 70% you'd be getting to that 5-win mark ~65% of the time, playing just under 10 games per run, and earning an average of ~6.5 packs. (You are most likely to finish 4-3, but hit 20 wins every ~50 runs.)

(The "Bonus Packs" column tracks how many of the earned packs come from the extra bonuses you get for 10/15/20 wins. The prizes at those points seemed excessive to me, but it turns out not to have a huge impact until you're win rate gets really high.)

This is all very speculative at the moment, as I don't believe Blizzard have finalized the rate at which "Bonus Packs" will be acquired via the forge.
On that note, any probability statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.

Quote from Xdega

This is all very speculative at the moment, as I don't believe Blizzard have finalized the rate at which "Bonus Packs" will be acquired via the forge.
On that note, any probability statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.

Those numbers are based on the rewards visible in one of the videos from PAX:

From wins 5+ you ear a pack per level, win 10 gives you an extra 5, win 15 and extra 15, and win 20 an extra 30. Obviously the numbers could change, but for now this is what they are. Looking at the consequences of those numbers might even provide some insight on how they might be changed in the future and why. For example, I originally thought that being able to win 66 packs in a Forge run was excessive, but after looking at the number it seems a lot more reasonable. It's like winning the lottery--it doesn't happen often, but when it does it should be really exciting.

Regarding the statistics, it's definitely a very rough approximation. In reality, your win chance will probably start higher and then decrease as you get farther into the Forge run since you get matched against people with similar W-L records for their current runs. The average skill level/deck quality of people with a 0-0 record is going to be quite a bit lower than the people with 19 wins who are trying to hit 20. Unfortunately, modeling that is a lot harder, so I just kept it simple and hope that the results are somewhat meaningful.

Yeh, it's good that you are attempting to estimate. Will be nicer when the game goes beta, and we can start collecting some user statistics.