There really is no need to panic. If you really like a deck the way it is, just play wild. Also, there will be a new expansion coming up, and there is a good chance that existing decks will get some sort of replacement for key cards.
So, let's go through some decklists and see what will need replacements. I'll start with Mage.
Mech Mage, Mech Shaman, Mech <anything>
Bad news first, mech decks simply won't be viable in standard, until there is a new mech-themed expansion (unlikely). With decks that are at least 50% GvG, there is just no way that we'll see replacements for all cards. So for what it's worth, don't expect mech decks outside of "wild" mode for a long time.
Tempo Mage
Tempo Mage will survive at least until the end of BRM. Mad Scientist is a big hit to the secret package, so unless we see a new card that tutors secrets, you'll have to get by with Kirin Tor Mage or just remove secrets. No GvG is also the end to spare parts, with Clockwork Gnome, Mechanical Yeti and Toshley gone. Expect lists that feed Archmage Antonidas with Arcane Missiles, Mirror Image and Arcane Blast. Dr. Boom will be gone too as an alternative finisher. What will be the new standard finisher? Classic Ragnaros? Rafaam? Rhonin into Malygos?
Freeze Mage loses Mad Scientist, but the deck isn't really mana starved, so lists can just add more card draw to make up for lost cycling. Maybe even play Jeweled Scarab to discover extra Ice Blocks. Also, nearly all of the key spells have already seen a round of nerfs, so it's unlikely Blizz will target them again. All in all, Freeze Mage will defend its position as the oldest nearly unchanged archetype.
Sooo, let me get this right. I'm gonna buy more cards to replace the cards that I already had that did basically the same thing? Not sure I follow the logic in that.
I haven't played the deck much but since Elka mentioned it... The key card of the deck is Mysterious Challenger, which will be with us for at least another year. Unless MC itself is nerfed (unlikely), the deck will adjust.
Whatever standard-mode secret pally will look like, it will be a completely different deck. I expect that we'll see quite a bit of experimentation, with new versions ranging from aggro to midrange, until the meta settles on a new "standard" list.
Midrange Paladin
The part of Secret Pally that got removed is essentially the Midrange shell. So how will midrange pally do?
This is pretty bad. Midrange is supposed to be the "standard" paladin, with the other decks being the funky weird ones.
MMRRRGGGLLLL Paladin
As a great news to everyone who plays HS just for the lulz, this deck will easily transition into standard, at least the first year. It will have to replace Antique Healbot and Sludge Belcher, but those cards are a staple in so many decks that we're almost guaranteed to see a replacement in the new set. In the very worst case, they'd have to use Sen'jin Shieldmasta and Guardian of Kings. Oh the humanity murlocity.
Aggro Pally
This deck loses Shielded Minibot, Coghammer, Muster for Battle, Loatheb. So they'll need a new OP 2-drop, a token generator, an early-game weapon (Argent Lance?) and optional a tech card against spell combos. If Muster for Battle sees a reprint or useful replacement, this deck is in a good shape.
Control Warrior is a pretty flexible archetype that has adjusted to many expansions and metas. I don't expect this deck to have any trouble to reshape itself in standard. The big losses are Death's Bite and Shieldmaiden, as well as Sludge Belcher and Dr. Boom like everyone else.
If Warrior doesn't get a good weapon in the new set, I'd expect King's Defender to take the spot. For Shieldmaiden, I hope we get a new minion that gives armor as a battlecry. I'd expect something more small-scale, like a 3 mana 3/3 that gives 3 armor.
Patron Warrior
This deck is still reeling from the Warsong Commander nerf, and I don't expect it to ever return to Tier 1. Grim Patron will be around for another year, but once that is out of standard, the deck will be gone. Blizz seems to move Warrior away from self damage and Whirlwind effect, so I don't expect any new support here. If Death's Bite or at least Unstable Ghoul doesn't see an equivalent reprint, the deck won't even hang on for another year. Just with Whirlwind itself, it won't have enough triggers.
Dragon Warrior
Dragon Warrior is nearly fully built on Classic, BRM and TGT, so it has a full year to shine in standard. The loss of Sludge Belcher and Boom don't matter because they are replaced by the dragon suite already. The only card that requires a replacement is Death's Bite, but the deck typically doesn't use the deathrattle outside of clearing tokens so it just might not miss it. With enough other ways to generate burst from Corruptors, Bash and Alex Champions, it might just end up not running more weapons than 2x Fiery Waraxe.
Zoolock is hit hard. The current tempostorm list loses only 4 cards, Haunted Creeper, Nerubian Egg, Imp-losion and Loatheb, but they are all key cards for filling the board with cheap, sticky minions and tokens. To save Zoo in its current form, the next expansion would have to bring new cheap deathrattle minions. If you prefer a Zoo version with Voidcaller and Mal'Ganis, you'll have to stick to Wild.
Classic Handlock
This deck might see a comeback, because all its key cards are in the classic sets. Darkbomb will be missed, but I wouldn't be surprised if Warlock gets a new damage spell in the new set after losing both Darkbomb and Implosion.
The bad news is that Demon Handlock with Mal'Ganis will be limited to Wild.
Renolock
The version with Stalagg and Feugen is gone no matter what. The more common versions will have to replace Zombie Chow, Darkbomb, Implosion, Piloted Shredder, Antique Healbot, Loatheb, Sludge Belcher, Dr. Boom. Looks like a long list but let's not forget that these are all one-offs, so we're talking about 8 of 30. The big question is whether there will be a powerful neutral heal card and a new Warlock damage spell. The rest will find replacements somehow, since they have to be replaced in so many decks anyway.
Malylock
Similar to Renolock decks, this deck will look to replace Zombie Chow, Darkbomb and Healbot. We'll have to see what the new set brings.
Danksteed Warlock
Even though Dreadsteed will be with us for another year, the deck loses Baron Rivendare, which is so far the only way to make more steeds outside of Faceless Manipulator. It also loses Voidcaller to pull the steeds from hand, and the Mal'Ganis finisher. Unless the new expansion creates a miracle, this deck is gone.
The biggest change to druid then is the announced nerf to classic cards, where druid was explicitely called out. It's very, very unlikely that the Force of Nature and Savage Roar combo will make it into standard without any changes. This is really where the future viability of combo druid is decided.
Egg Druid
Without Echoing Ooze, Haunted Creeper, Nerubian Egg and Jeeves, this deck is unlikely to make it in standard. Especially if Savage Roar is hit with a nerf bat.
Aggro Druid
With Fel Reaver gone, and its potential replacement Druid of the Fang gone too, this deck is dead. I'm sure we'll see aggressive druid decks in standard, but they will be very different.
Wailing Soul Druid
Wailing Soul is a Naxx card, so this deck won't make it to standard.
Ramp Druid
A classic archetype that has fallen a bit out of favor, it could make a serious comeback if FoN+SR is nerfed and druid players go back to an old, non-combo archetype. This is even more likely if Big Game Hunter is also nerfed. That said, it's less likely but the nerfbat could also hit Innervate and Wild Growth, in which case druid will pretty much be left without viable archetype for a while.
Sooo, let me get this right. I'm gonna buy more cards to replace the cards that I already had that did basically the same thing? Not sure I follow the logic in that.
When did they say they were just going to remake the exact same cards that rotated out? You're also acting like Standard is suddenly the only format in the game.
Piloted Shredder and Loatheb will find replacements, as in every other deck. Tomb Pillager is a very likely candidate. The real loss is of course Tinker's Sharpsword Oil, the card that gave the deck its name. Without it, the deck misses both its finisher and most powerful board clear, which is very hard to recover from. The best hope is that the new set will see a worthy reprint or replacement of the card.
Miracle Rogue / Maly Rogue
Like all other combo decks, these two will need new cards to keep them alive, a replacement Antique Healbot and Sludge Belcher. With so many decks missing these cards, chances are high there will be new options.
Otherwise they won't be missing any cards, which just shows how shitty Rogue was treated in GvG and Naxx (and TGT for that matter).
Pirate Rogue
Not that this was ever a viable deck, but the loss of Ship's Cannon in addition to Tinker's Sharpsword Oil is the last nail in the coffin. Maybe we'll get a pirate-themed adventure at some point (like BRM was centered on dragons) and pirates will be back on the high seas tiers, but just some random minions with the pirate tag like in TGT will not make a deck.
Raptor Rogue
This deck's main strategy was to copy the deathrattles of Nerubian Egg, Haunted Creeper or Piloted Shredder on curve. These cards are gone and we're unlikely to see a new set of cheap minions with powerful deathrattles to replace them. It's unlikely that someone will dig up that Raptor for standard.
Mill Rogue
The core cards of this deck all make the transition to standard, with only Deathlord and Sludge Belcher needing replacement. This certainly weakens a deck that already has a huge problem with holding its ground against aggro decks. Its ongoing viability then rather depends on how aggressive the new standard meta will be, and how many defensive tools will be in the new expansion.
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Control Priest
Control Priest will have to completely rethink their deck building. Zombie Chow, Deathlord, Dark Cultist, Velen's Chosen, Sludge Belcher and Lightbomb are all very powerful options to lose, especially for the crucial early game. That's three turn 3 options gone. Somewhat less obvious is that Museum Curator will also lose a lot of good discoverable options. Ideally, Priest gets new strong 1 and 3-drops in the new expansion, and a new buff spell.
Dragon Priest
Dragon Priest will be heavily affected if BRM is cycled out next year, but until then, he is going strong. Sure, the deck is losing some options, especially Velen's Chosen, but they are all "borrowed" from Control Priest. The dragon shell remains strong, and will just see some new variants with different cards teched in. The loss of Lightbomb is fine, Excavated Evil should work too.
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Face Hunter
Mad Scientist is a big loss for Face Hunter, since the deck is all about optimal use of its early-game mana. Playing secrets from hand is just bad for the deck, even if they are only 2 mana. I hope we see a new hunter minion that does something similar.
The loss of Glaivezooka hurts even more, because Hunter only ever got 3 weapons (WTF Blizz!?) and there is no way FH can use a 7 mana Gladiator's Longbow. The new expansion better have a cheap hunter weapon, otherwise this deck will have a really hard time.
The loss of Haunted Creeper doesn't hurt FH as much as Zoo, and plenty of versions of the deck don't even use it.
The good news for FH is that many of the cards designed to stop it will be rotated out (Belcher, Healbot, Deathlord...). FH's ongoing viability will depend on the new defensive and healing options for other decks.
Midrange Hunter
Midrange Hunter runs many of the "best for their mana cost" minions that will be rotated out, namely Piloted Shredder, Loatheb, Dr. Boom. Like other decks, it will have to adapt with whatever turns out to be the new best option. It will also have to look for a new 1-drop, since Webspinner is no longer available. My candidates would be Abusive Sergeant, Tomb Spider and Azure Drake, with the 7-slot hopefully filled by the first viable hunter legendary in the history of Hearthstone.
Feign Death / Hat Hunter
With Feign Death, Baron Rivendare, Nerubian Egg and Haunted Creeper gone, the core of the deck and the important ability to multiply hats won't make it to standard, even though the hat itself is still around. The new expansion is unlikely to have a big deathrattle theme, unfortunately, this deck will not just be pining for the fjords, it will be an ex-deck.
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Aggro Shaman
The deck will be missing Crackle, which is bad because it's their best burn spell. However, it's a pretty straightforward card, so if the new expansion doesn't give Shaman new burn options, they can always add Arcane Golems or similar.
Midrange Shaman
This deck will be missing the same midrange suite as a bunch of other decks. Haunted Creeper, Piloted Shredder, Loatheb, Dr. Boom. If we don't get a new range of dominant midrange minions in the new expansion, the deck might evolve towards a totem focus that some players tried after TGT but just couldn't compete at the time. Maybe Shaman will even get the "Muster for Totems" card that Shaman players wanted for so long.
Murloc Shaman
With both Neptulon and Siltfin Spiritwalker being cut, that deck will be DOA in standard. It never was and never will be.
Reincarnate Shaman
Kel'Thuzad gone, Reincarnate gone... Sorry to say, but nothing will bring this deck back to life.
When did they say they were just going to remake the exact same cards that rotated out? You're also acting like Standard is suddenly the only format in the game.
They didn't. But in MTG, some of the old cards came back later. So eventually (probably not soon), we will see either the same cards or very similar cards. Rusty Healbot- 4 mana 2/2 Battlecry: Restory 5 health. Something like that.
How about refreshment Vendor for replacement heal.
It will see play if there are no other options. I don't think I need to explain how much better the bot is.
Frankly, I think non-Reno decks that try to stay alive and assemble a combo will have a problem unless we get equally powerful replacements for healbot and belcher.
What are you talking about, DrFelip? Assuming there are any decent anti-aggro tools in the new set, Malygos miracle rogue goes literally untouched, a deck which I would say is only marginally worse than oil rogue, and even has some advantages. Throwing together lists to see what cards were dropped, rogue is second after druid as the least affected class by rotation. The only thing that would keep miracle decks from being top tier in my mind is Face Shaman. I also find it some what scary that miracle rogue decks have been somewhat immortalized by leaving all the classic cards available. I feel that a number of strong archetypes shaped by classic cards have been more or less untouched, and that these longstanding decks will likely make up a chunk of every meta for years to come, which is a bad thing in my mind, because I would like standard to be new and fresh. Maybe they will address some of the powerful combo potential of rogue basic and classic cards when they start nerfing, but that also scares me because it means certain rogue decks I like now won't even exist in WIld :(
I went back through the list and added a few fringe decks like Reincarnate Shaman and Feign Death Hunter, most of which unfortunately won't make it.
All in all, we end up with 4 categories...
Smooth Transition: These decks will have to replace 2-3 staples, that are likely to have some sort of replacement in standard. Their core mechanic is kept intact, so they will be viable from day one with little rework. Note that this does not take the announced nerfs to classic cards into account, because we just don't have that info yet. Freeze Mage, Murloc Pally, Handlock, Ramp Druid, Miracle / Maly Rogue, Dragon Priest, Dragon Warrior, Aggro Shaman
Rework: These decks will lose key cards that they will have to replace. Depending on available cards, this might bring new strategies or workarounds that could seriously boost or hamper these decks. Most likely, they will be viable, but expect them to play quite different in standard. Tempo Mage, Aggro Pally, Control Warrior, Malylock, Oil Rogue, Mill Rogue, Control Priest, Face Hunter, Combo Druid
Reinvent: These decks will remain viable as archetypes, but they lose a third or even half of the cards from their current standard list. The new deck will really be a reinvention that mimics the strategies of the old one. Secret Pally, Midrange Pally, Zoolock, Renolock, Aggro Druid, Midrange Hunter, Midrange Shaman
Pining for the Fjords: These decks are dead in standard. They are ex-decks. Most of them are niche decks that are build around a certain card or strategy that is unlikely to see a new version in upcoming standard. Mech Mage, Mech Shaman, Mech <anything>, Echo Giants Mage, Patron Warrior, Dreadsteed Warlock, Egg Druid, Wailing Soul Druid, Pirate Rogue, Raptor Rogue, Feign Death / Hat Hunter, Murloc Shaman, Reincarnate Shaman
If Warrior doesn't get a good weapon in the new set, I'd expect King's Defender to take the spot.
I don't see King's Defender seeing any play, it's just not that good. I think it is very likely that we will see warrior return to gorehowl, and possibly an arcanite reaper as well.
If BGH sees a nerf then obsidian destroyer may also seem some play. Fierce monkey may also see some play as it is a pretty good 3 drop.
I took a moment tonight to load up my Midrange Hunter deck from a couple of seasons back, trying the Tomb Spider in place of Piloted Shredder to just get a sense for that slot change. I have to say I am really liking the potential of the Spider here and hit a few high quality discovers.
Honestly, a concern I have for those of us who prefer to avoid the strictly aggro Hunter is that Savannah Highmanemight not make it out of the upcoming nerfs unscathed. They haven't indicated it that I know of, and I don't know that it limits their sense of design space, but it is definitely among the super-powered cards in the Classic set that has received some player criticism over time.
I don't see King's Defender seeing any play, it's just not that good. I think it is very likely that we will see warrior return to gorehowl, and possibly an arcanite reaper as well.
If BGH sees a nerf then obsidian destroyer may also seem some play. Fierce monkey may also see some play as it is a pretty good 3 drop.
Yes. If Control Warrior doesn't get any interesting cards from the new expansion, this is likely to happen. Maybe we'll even see the Sparring Partner + Black Knight combo more regularly.
How can you do an analysis when you don't know what changes will come and what new cards will be released?
Simple, stick to what we know: The decks that are played right now and the cards that won't be available in standard. There are two big unknowns: the announced nerf to basic / standard cards and the new set. So yeah, you can already predict that Reincarnate Shaman will be gone, but Aggro Shaman will still be available. What Shaman decks will be the best in standard? Who knows. If you had read the posts, you'd see that I don't speculate about that.
You will insert cards from new expansions which will probably have simillar effects like the ones which are terminated from Standard format. This change also brings less thinking and brainstorming for card ideas when designing expansions... They will just make another Death's Bite, another Lightbomb with different artworks and littlebit different effect but with same impact on the board. So people will be paying for new cards which they already have, but can't play them in the main format and that is a successful business model ;)
There really is no need to panic. If you really like a deck the way it is, just play wild. Also, there will be a new expansion coming up, and there is a good chance that existing decks will get some sort of replacement for key cards.
So, let's go through some decklists and see what will need replacements. I'll start with Mage.
Mech Mage, Mech Shaman, Mech <anything>
Bad news first, mech decks simply won't be viable in standard, until there is a new mech-themed expansion (unlikely). With decks that are at least 50% GvG, there is just no way that we'll see replacements for all cards. So for what it's worth, don't expect mech decks outside of "wild" mode for a long time.
Tempo Mage
Tempo Mage will survive at least until the end of BRM. Mad Scientist is a big hit to the secret package, so unless we see a new card that tutors secrets, you'll have to get by with Kirin Tor Mage or just remove secrets. No GvG is also the end to spare parts, with Clockwork Gnome, Mechanical Yeti and Toshley gone. Expect lists that feed Archmage Antonidas with Arcane Missiles, Mirror Image and Arcane Blast. Dr. Boom will be gone too as an alternative finisher. What will be the new standard finisher? Classic Ragnaros? Rafaam? Rhonin into Malygos?
On the spells side, Flamecannon will be gone, but Forgotten Torch can replace it.
Interesting times ahead.
Freeze Mage
Freeze Mage loses Mad Scientist, but the deck isn't really mana starved, so lists can just add more card draw to make up for lost cycling. Maybe even play Jeweled Scarab to discover extra Ice Blocks. Also, nearly all of the key spells have already seen a round of nerfs, so it's unlikely Blizz will target them again. All in all, Freeze Mage will defend its position as the oldest nearly unchanged archetype.
Echo Giants Mage
Echo Mage loses both Duplicate and Echo of Medivh. That means the deck is dead in standard.
So much for Mage... How do you see your favorite decks adjusting?
Secret retardins lose avenge!! I'm quite happy with that.
Warrior lose... Death bite? Not so happy about it.
Everyone lose Dr. Boom. I'm not even sure how i feel about that.
Sooo, let me get this right. I'm gonna buy more cards to replace the cards that I already had that did basically the same thing? Not sure I follow the logic in that.
Secret Paladin
I haven't played the deck much but since Elka mentioned it... The key card of the deck is Mysterious Challenger, which will be with us for at least another year. Unless MC itself is nerfed (unlikely), the deck will adjust.
That said, "Standard" Secret Pally will have quite a bit of adjusting to do. Avenge, Haunted Creeper, Shielded Minibot, Coghammer, Muster for Battle, Piloted Shredder, Loatheb, Sludge Belcher, Dr. Boom... The deck will have to replace 14 of 30 cards. Nearly the entire early and mid-game. (based on the current tempostorm list)
Whatever standard-mode secret pally will look like, it will be a completely different deck. I expect that we'll see quite a bit of experimentation, with new versions ranging from aggro to midrange, until the meta settles on a new "standard" list.
Midrange Paladin
The part of Secret Pally that got removed is essentially the Midrange shell. So how will midrange pally do?
Zombie Chow, Haunted Creeper, Shielded Minibot, Coghammer, Muster for Battle, Piloted Shredder, Antique Healbot, Quartermaster, Sludge Belcher, Dr. Boom. 16/30. Even worse, the loss of Muster+Quartermaster kills the core of the deck. Unless we see an entirely new set of midrange minions for Paladin, this deck is dead. There may be a new midrange-ish Paladin rising from the ashes, but it will look very different.
This is pretty bad. Midrange is supposed to be the "standard" paladin, with the other decks being the funky weird ones.
MMRRRGGGLLLL Paladin
As a great news to everyone who plays HS just for the lulz, this deck will easily transition into standard, at least the first year. It will have to replace Antique Healbot and Sludge Belcher, but those cards are a staple in so many decks that we're almost guaranteed to see a replacement in the new set. In the very worst case, they'd have to use Sen'jin Shieldmasta and Guardian of Kings. Oh the
humanitymurlocity.Aggro Pally
This deck loses Shielded Minibot, Coghammer, Muster for Battle, Loatheb. So they'll need a new OP 2-drop, a token generator, an early-game weapon (Argent Lance?) and optional a tech card against spell combos. If Muster for Battle sees a reprint or useful replacement, this deck is in a good shape.
Control Warrior
Control Warrior is a pretty flexible archetype that has adjusted to many expansions and metas. I don't expect this deck to have any trouble to reshape itself in standard. The big losses are Death's Bite and Shieldmaiden, as well as Sludge Belcher and Dr. Boom like everyone else.
If Warrior doesn't get a good weapon in the new set, I'd expect King's Defender to take the spot. For Shieldmaiden, I hope we get a new minion that gives armor as a battlecry. I'd expect something more small-scale, like a 3 mana 3/3 that gives 3 armor.
Patron Warrior
This deck is still reeling from the Warsong Commander nerf, and I don't expect it to ever return to Tier 1. Grim Patron will be around for another year, but once that is out of standard, the deck will be gone. Blizz seems to move Warrior away from self damage and Whirlwind effect, so I don't expect any new support here. If Death's Bite or at least Unstable Ghoul doesn't see an equivalent reprint, the deck won't even hang on for another year. Just with Whirlwind itself, it won't have enough triggers.
Dragon Warrior
Dragon Warrior is nearly fully built on Classic, BRM and TGT, so it has a full year to shine in standard. The loss of Sludge Belcher and Boom don't matter because they are replaced by the dragon suite already. The only card that requires a replacement is Death's Bite, but the deck typically doesn't use the deathrattle outside of clearing tokens so it just might not miss it. With enough other ways to generate burst from Corruptors, Bash and Alex Champions, it might just end up not running more weapons than 2x Fiery Waraxe.
Zoolock
Zoolock is hit hard. The current tempostorm list loses only 4 cards, Haunted Creeper, Nerubian Egg, Imp-losion and Loatheb, but they are all key cards for filling the board with cheap, sticky minions and tokens. To save Zoo in its current form, the next expansion would have to bring new cheap deathrattle minions. If you prefer a Zoo version with Voidcaller and Mal'Ganis, you'll have to stick to Wild.
Classic Handlock
This deck might see a comeback, because all its key cards are in the classic sets. Darkbomb will be missed, but I wouldn't be surprised if Warlock gets a new damage spell in the new set after losing both Darkbomb and Implosion.
The bad news is that Demon Handlock with Mal'Ganis will be limited to Wild.
Renolock
The version with Stalagg and Feugen is gone no matter what. The more common versions will have to replace Zombie Chow, Darkbomb, Implosion, Piloted Shredder, Antique Healbot, Loatheb, Sludge Belcher, Dr. Boom. Looks like a long list but let's not forget that these are all one-offs, so we're talking about 8 of 30. The big question is whether there will be a powerful neutral heal card and a new Warlock damage spell. The rest will find replacements somehow, since they have to be replaced in so many decks anyway.
Malylock
Similar to Renolock decks, this deck will look to replace Zombie Chow, Darkbomb and Healbot. We'll have to see what the new set brings.
Danksteed Warlock
Even though Dreadsteed will be with us for another year, the deck loses Baron Rivendare, which is so far the only way to make more steeds outside of Faceless Manipulator. It also loses Voidcaller to pull the steeds from hand, and the Mal'Ganis finisher. Unless the new expansion creates a miracle, this deck is gone.
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Midrange / Combo Druid
Druid is surprisingly unaffected by the new format, with nearly all of their key cards already in the classic set and still going strong. Shade of Naxxramas, Piloted Shredder, Loatheb and Dr. Boom are gone, but they can just be replaced with the new best 3/4/5/7 drop after the new expansion hits. Mounted Raptor and Savage Combatant will fill the 3/4 slots if nothing better comes along. The Loatheb and Boom slots might see anything in the 5-7 range, like Nexus-Champion Saraad or Justicar Trueheart, or even old classics like Sylvanas Windrunner, Cairne Bloodhoof and The Black Knight. I'm also expecting that the new druid legendary is in that range.
The biggest change to druid then is the announced nerf to classic cards, where druid was explicitely called out. It's very, very unlikely that the Force of Nature and Savage Roar combo will make it into standard without any changes. This is really where the future viability of combo druid is decided.
Egg Druid
Without Echoing Ooze, Haunted Creeper, Nerubian Egg and Jeeves, this deck is unlikely to make it in standard. Especially if Savage Roar is hit with a nerf bat.
Aggro Druid
With Fel Reaver gone, and its potential replacement Druid of the Fang gone too, this deck is dead. I'm sure we'll see aggressive druid decks in standard, but they will be very different.
Wailing Soul Druid
Wailing Soul is a Naxx card, so this deck won't make it to standard.
Ramp Druid
A classic archetype that has fallen a bit out of favor, it could make a serious comeback if FoN+SR is nerfed and druid players go back to an old, non-combo archetype. This is even more likely if Big Game Hunter is also nerfed. That said, it's less likely but the nerfbat could also hit Innervate and Wild Growth, in which case druid will pretty much be left without viable archetype for a while.
How about refreshment Vendor for replacement heal.
I love scrubs
Oil Rogue
Piloted Shredder and Loatheb will find replacements, as in every other deck. Tomb Pillager is a very likely candidate. The real loss is of course Tinker's Sharpsword Oil, the card that gave the deck its name. Without it, the deck misses both its finisher and most powerful board clear, which is very hard to recover from. The best hope is that the new set will see a worthy reprint or replacement of the card.
Miracle Rogue / Maly Rogue
Like all other combo decks, these two will need new cards to keep them alive, a replacement Antique Healbot and Sludge Belcher. With so many decks missing these cards, chances are high there will be new options.
Otherwise they won't be missing any cards, which just shows how shitty Rogue was treated in GvG and Naxx (and TGT for that matter).
Pirate Rogue
Not that this was ever a viable deck, but the loss of Ship's Cannon in addition to Tinker's Sharpsword Oil is the last nail in the coffin. Maybe we'll get a pirate-themed adventure at some point (like BRM was centered on dragons) and pirates will be back on the high
seastiers, but just some random minions with the pirate tag like in TGT will not make a deck.Raptor Rogue
This deck's main strategy was to copy the deathrattles of Nerubian Egg, Haunted Creeper or Piloted Shredder on curve. These cards are gone and we're unlikely to see a new set of cheap minions with powerful deathrattles to replace them. It's unlikely that someone will dig up that Raptor for standard.
Mill Rogue
The core cards of this deck all make the transition to standard, with only Deathlord and Sludge Belcher needing replacement. This certainly weakens a deck that already has a huge problem with holding its ground against aggro decks. Its ongoing viability then rather depends on how aggressive the new standard meta will be, and how many defensive tools will be in the new expansion.
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Control Priest
Control Priest will have to completely rethink their deck building. Zombie Chow, Deathlord, Dark Cultist, Velen's Chosen, Sludge Belcher and Lightbomb are all very powerful options to lose, especially for the crucial early game. That's three turn 3 options gone. Somewhat less obvious is that Museum Curator will also lose a lot of good discoverable options. Ideally, Priest gets new strong 1 and 3-drops in the new expansion, and a new buff spell.
Dragon Priest
Dragon Priest will be heavily affected if BRM is cycled out next year, but until then, he is going strong. Sure, the deck is losing some options, especially Velen's Chosen, but they are all "borrowed" from Control Priest. The dragon shell remains strong, and will just see some new variants with different cards teched in. The loss of Lightbomb is fine, Excavated Evil should work too.
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Face Hunter
Mad Scientist is a big loss for Face Hunter, since the deck is all about optimal use of its early-game mana. Playing secrets from hand is just bad for the deck, even if they are only 2 mana. I hope we see a new hunter minion that does something similar.
The loss of Glaivezooka hurts even more, because Hunter only ever got 3 weapons (WTF Blizz!?) and there is no way FH can use a 7 mana Gladiator's Longbow. The new expansion better have a cheap hunter weapon, otherwise this deck will have a really hard time.
The loss of Haunted Creeper doesn't hurt FH as much as Zoo, and plenty of versions of the deck don't even use it.
The good news for FH is that many of the cards designed to stop it will be rotated out (Belcher, Healbot, Deathlord...). FH's ongoing viability will depend on the new defensive and healing options for other decks.
Midrange Hunter
Midrange Hunter runs many of the "best for their mana cost" minions that will be rotated out, namely Piloted Shredder, Loatheb, Dr. Boom. Like other decks, it will have to adapt with whatever turns out to be the new best option. It will also have to look for a new 1-drop, since Webspinner is no longer available. My candidates would be Abusive Sergeant, Tomb Spider and Azure Drake, with the 7-slot hopefully filled by the first viable hunter legendary in the history of Hearthstone.
Feign Death / Hat Hunter
With Feign Death, Baron Rivendare, Nerubian Egg and Haunted Creeper gone, the core of the deck and the important ability to multiply hats won't make it to standard, even though the hat itself is still around. The new expansion is unlikely to have a big deathrattle theme, unfortunately, this deck will not just be pining for the fjords, it will be an ex-deck.
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Aggro Shaman
The deck will be missing Crackle, which is bad because it's their best burn spell. However, it's a pretty straightforward card, so if the new expansion doesn't give Shaman new burn options, they can always add Arcane Golems or similar.
Midrange Shaman
This deck will be missing the same midrange suite as a bunch of other decks. Haunted Creeper, Piloted Shredder, Loatheb, Dr. Boom. If we don't get a new range of dominant midrange minions in the new expansion, the deck might evolve towards a totem focus that some players tried after TGT but just couldn't compete at the time. Maybe Shaman will even get the "Muster for Totems" card that Shaman players wanted for so long.
Murloc Shaman
With both Neptulon and Siltfin Spiritwalker being cut, that deck will be DOA in standard. It never was and never will be.
Reincarnate Shaman
Kel'Thuzad gone, Reincarnate gone... Sorry to say, but nothing will bring this deck back to life.
What are you talking about, DrFelip? Assuming there are any decent anti-aggro tools in the new set, Malygos miracle rogue goes literally untouched, a deck which I would say is only marginally worse than oil rogue, and even has some advantages. Throwing together lists to see what cards were dropped, rogue is second after druid as the least affected class by rotation. The only thing that would keep miracle decks from being top tier in my mind is Face Shaman. I also find it some what scary that miracle rogue decks have been somewhat immortalized by leaving all the classic cards available. I feel that a number of strong archetypes shaped by classic cards have been more or less untouched, and that these longstanding decks will likely make up a chunk of every meta for years to come, which is a bad thing in my mind, because I would like standard to be new and fresh. Maybe they will address some of the powerful combo potential of rogue basic and classic cards when they start nerfing, but that also scares me because it means certain rogue decks I like now won't even exist in WIld :(
I went back through the list and added a few fringe decks like Reincarnate Shaman and Feign Death Hunter, most of which unfortunately won't make it.
All in all, we end up with 4 categories...
Smooth Transition: These decks will have to replace 2-3 staples, that are likely to have some sort of replacement in standard. Their core mechanic is kept intact, so they will be viable from day one with little rework. Note that this does not take the announced nerfs to classic cards into account, because we just don't have that info yet. Freeze Mage, Murloc Pally, Handlock, Ramp Druid, Miracle / Maly Rogue, Dragon Priest, Dragon Warrior, Aggro Shaman
Rework: These decks will lose key cards that they will have to replace. Depending on available cards, this might bring new strategies or workarounds that could seriously boost or hamper these decks. Most likely, they will be viable, but expect them to play quite different in standard. Tempo Mage, Aggro Pally, Control Warrior, Malylock, Oil Rogue, Mill Rogue, Control Priest, Face Hunter, Combo Druid
Reinvent: These decks will remain viable as archetypes, but they lose a third or even half of the cards from their current standard list. The new deck will really be a reinvention that mimics the strategies of the old one. Secret Pally, Midrange Pally, Zoolock, Renolock, Aggro Druid, Midrange Hunter, Midrange Shaman
Pining for the Fjords: These decks are dead in standard. They are ex-decks. Most of them are niche decks that are build around a certain card or strategy that is unlikely to see a new version in upcoming standard. Mech Mage, Mech Shaman, Mech <anything>, Echo Giants Mage, Patron Warrior, Dreadsteed Warlock, Egg Druid, Wailing Soul Druid, Pirate Rogue, Raptor Rogue, Feign Death / Hat Hunter, Murloc Shaman, Reincarnate Shaman
I took a moment tonight to load up my Midrange Hunter deck from a couple of seasons back, trying the Tomb Spider in place of Piloted Shredder to just get a sense for that slot change. I have to say I am really liking the potential of the Spider here and hit a few high quality discovers.
Honestly, a concern I have for those of us who prefer to avoid the strictly aggro Hunter is that Savannah Highmane might not make it out of the upcoming nerfs unscathed. They haven't indicated it that I know of, and I don't know that it limits their sense of design space, but it is definitely among the super-powered cards in the Classic set that has received some player criticism over time.
How can you do an analysis when you don't know what changes will come and what new cards will be released?
This thread is fairly useless, sorry. Until details on balance changes and new content comes along, there is nothing to discuss.
We can be fairly certain standard druid cards will see some change (since it is the most classic-heavy top competitive deck), and that's about it.
You will insert cards from new expansions which will probably have simillar effects like the ones which are terminated from Standard format. This change also brings less thinking and brainstorming for card ideas when designing expansions... They will just make another Death's Bite, another Lightbomb with different artworks and littlebit different effect but with same impact on the board. So people will be paying for new cards which they already have, but can't play them in the main format and that is a successful business model ;)
I am not a morning person.
I am not a morning person.