Arcane Missiles can go face, so the number of potential targets increases by 1, lowering the odds something is hit multiple times. To hit the same target (minion A, minion B, or face) all three times will be 1/9, if we don't care which target things are hitting.
I just tested this out in a quick throwaway game. I used 3 Devolving Missiles, each time on 2 enemy minions. On all three events, the missiles hit both minions.
I think we can put this particular Conspiracy theory to bed :-)
Yes, but there is another serious bug here - I keep loosing games for no apparent reason, although I play hard.
I just lost three games in a row again, that is obviously impossible. I tested it several times, I keep loosing so many games in a row, even against different players - thus it is not bias.
Yes, but there is another serious bug here - I keep loosing games for no apparent reason, although I play hard.
I just lost three games in a row again, that is obviously impossible. I tested it several times, I keep loosing so many games in a row, even against different players - thus it is not bias.
Blizzard must fix this bug immediately!
Wow, I just won three in a row! I guess I was queued against you three times in a row to make that happen. At least if my math is right....
Yes, but there is another serious bug here - I keep loosing games for no apparent reason, although I play hard.
I just lost three games in a row again, that is obviously impossible. I tested it several times, I keep loosing so many games in a row, even against different players - thus it is not bias.
Blizzard must fix this bug immediately!
Wow, I just won three in a row! I guess I was queued against you three times in a row to make that happen. At least if my math is right....
My God, it is worse than I thought!
So we were queued three times in a row, but our usernames were mixed up and I thought I played three different players, but it was always you. Math does not lie!
Yes, but there is another serious bug here - I keep loosing games for no apparent reason, although I play hard.
I just lost three games in a row again, that is obviously impossible. I tested it several times, I keep loosing so many games in a row, even against different players - thus it is not bias.
Blizzard must fix this bug immediately!
Wow, I just won three in a row! I guess I was queued against you three times in a row to make that happen. At least if my math is right....
My God, it is worse than I thought!
So we were queued three times in a row, but our usernames were mixed up and I thought I played three different players, but it was always you. Math does not lie!
Pft, small indie company...
That's why they don't show usernames unless you are legend. Or something like that.
Nothing to see here, just full blown confirmation bias party.
Unless you have collected sufficient statistical data to disprove this your opinion is just as unfounded.
But reason IS on his side. There is no logical reason for Blizzard to deliberately make DM non-random. It makes them no money, nor does it make any difference to them who wins or loses a given game. So the only way this could happen is if there's a bug in the code causing this problem. Unfortunately for this theory:
1. I don't write code, but this has to be trivially easy to write; and
2. Blizzard is almost certainly using exactly the same code it uses for Arcane Missiles, just making it hit only minions and changing the effect of a hit.
But your response is too common:
Poster #1: "The game is rigged."
Poster #2: "Where's your data proving it's rigged?"
Poster #1: "I don't have to prove it. YOU have to prove it's not."
Poster #2: "......" [Smacks his head on the desk, begins weeping at the utter failure of the educational system.]
Nothing to see here, just full blown confirmation bias party.
Unless you have collected sufficient statistical data to disprove this your opinion is just as unfounded.
But reason IS on his side. There is no logical reason for Blizzard to deliberately make DM non-random. It makes them no money, nor does it make any difference to them who wins or loses a given game. So the only way this could happen is if there's a bug in the code causing this problem. Unfortunately for this theory:
1. I don't write code, but this has to be trivially easy to write; and
2. Blizzard is almost certainly using exactly the same code it uses for Arcane Missiles, just making it hit only minions and changing the effect of a hit.
But your response is too common:
Poster #1: "The game is rigged."
Poster #2: "Where's your data proving it's rigged?"
Poster #1: "I don't have to prove it. YOU have to prove it's not."
Poster #2: "......" [Smacks his head on the desk, begins weeping at the utter failure of the educational system.]
I guess I should have winked or something. I was just being a smart ass turning the default argument on itself.
There's going to be a significant bit of confirmation bias going on with this. Every time it happens as you expect, you won't remember it. Why would you? Just the card doing "what it should". However, the times it does something unexpected, you'll take note of that. Not to mention, what's being talked about isn't that statistically unlikely. Not given how often that card gets played.
Nothing to see here, just full blown confirmation bias party.
Unless you have collected sufficient statistical data to disprove this your opinion is just as unfounded.
That's...not how unfounding of opinions work. It's up to the party making the positive claim to actually provide the statistical data for it to be anything more than conjecture.
Considering single cards taking all missiles despite not being the only card on the field is a fairly likely outcome on a statistical level (25% on a 2 minion board, ~11% on a 3 minion board, 6.25% on a 4 minion board, etc), just saying because you've seen them happen a few times in a small sample size does not make a good argument. It's a statistical guarantee due to the odds not being negligible that there are people out there who will see only triple hits in a lot of games. Those people are going to get a pretty skewed view of the card, but that is just how statistics work. They need to be based off of thousands of games to collect a solid sample size.
It is worth pointing out there is going to be some collection bias on the card as well. Due to its' random nature, it's more likely to be used on smaller boards than larger boards, so it's going to be played in situations that are increasing the odds of it multi-hitting cards. You're never going to play it against a 5+ minion board unless you're really desperate, but those are the boards where it becomes significantly less likely to multi-hit, and should actually be the game state that this should be tested in if we think it's a mechanical bug.
Why doesn't the same happen with arcane missiles? They are pretty random? Thus it is not bias....
Below 2 games, where indeed 2 minions on other side and all 3 missiles hitting just 1:
https://hsreplay.net/replay/9X3ZSBJ6kvaCB3XkjtswkM
https://hsreplay.net/replay/H8QGtBwTfd8cLCKFHsKvyc
It happened again! I rolled a 4 on a D4!
Arcane Missiles can go face, so the number of potential targets increases by 1, lowering the odds something is hit multiple times. To hit the same target (minion A, minion B, or face) all three times will be 1/9, if we don't care which target things are hitting.
I just tested this out in a quick throwaway game.
I used 3 Devolving Missiles, each time on 2 enemy minions.
On all three events, the missiles hit both minions.
I think we can put this particular Conspiracy theory to bed :-)
6 ouit of 6 Devolving Missiles, everytime with multiple cards on board, hitting the same target this morning again.
I think there is something really broken.
from only two minions as targets, 12.5% the chance is to hit the same 3 times. Is my math right?
I noticed this too
Your math is right in the case where you call the target beforehand.
The probability of hitting the same random target out of two possible targets three times is 25%.
Yes, but there is another serious bug here - I keep loosing games for no apparent reason, although I play hard.
I just lost three games in a row again, that is obviously impossible. I tested it several times, I keep loosing so many games in a row, even against different players - thus it is not bias.
Blizzard must fix this bug immediately!
Wow, I just won three in a row!
I guess I was queued against you three times in a row to make that happen. At least if my math is right....
My God, it is worse than I thought!
So we were queued three times in a row, but our usernames were mixed up and I thought I played three different players, but it was always you. Math does not lie!
Pft, small indie company...
Unless you have collected sufficient statistical data to disprove this your opinion is just as unfounded.
Deleted..
From two minions as targets, there is
50%25% chance to hit one minion 3 times.Edit: fixed my bad math, sorry :)
That's why they don't show usernames unless you are legend. Or something like that.
But reason IS on his side. There is no logical reason for Blizzard to deliberately make DM non-random. It makes them no money, nor does it make any difference to them who wins or loses a given game. So the only way this could happen is if there's a bug in the code causing this problem. Unfortunately for this theory:
1. I don't write code, but this has to be trivially easy to write; and
2. Blizzard is almost certainly using exactly the same code it uses for Arcane Missiles, just making it hit only minions and changing the effect of a hit.
But your response is too common:
Poster #1: "The game is rigged."
Poster #2: "Where's your data proving it's rigged?"
Poster #1: "I don't have to prove it. YOU have to prove it's not."
Poster #2: "......" [Smacks his head on the desk, begins weeping at the utter failure of the educational system.]
I guess I should have winked or something. I was just being a smart ass turning the default argument on itself.
Crying about missiles hitting same target. Someone wins in lottery and do u even know odds for that?
There's going to be a significant bit of confirmation bias going on with this. Every time it happens as you expect, you won't remember it. Why would you? Just the card doing "what it should". However, the times it does something unexpected, you'll take note of that. Not to mention, what's being talked about isn't that statistically unlikely. Not given how often that card gets played.
That's...not how unfounding of opinions work. It's up to the party making the positive claim to actually provide the statistical data for it to be anything more than conjecture.
Considering single cards taking all missiles despite not being the only card on the field is a fairly likely outcome on a statistical level (25% on a 2 minion board, ~11% on a 3 minion board, 6.25% on a 4 minion board, etc), just saying because you've seen them happen a few times in a small sample size does not make a good argument. It's a statistical guarantee due to the odds not being negligible that there are people out there who will see only triple hits in a lot of games. Those people are going to get a pretty skewed view of the card, but that is just how statistics work. They need to be based off of thousands of games to collect a solid sample size.
It is worth pointing out there is going to be some collection bias on the card as well. Due to its' random nature, it's more likely to be used on smaller boards than larger boards, so it's going to be played in situations that are increasing the odds of it multi-hitting cards. You're never going to play it against a 5+ minion board unless you're really desperate, but those are the boards where it becomes significantly less likely to multi-hit, and should actually be the game state that this should be tested in if we think it's a mechanical bug.
It not a bug just very unlucky I had 2 cast of it both hit Same target so I hit a imp 4x