Almost every time, this card seems to hit the same target if there's two targets. Almost everytime! Has anybody else noticed this? Either the card is bugged or I am just realllyyyy unlucky.
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
I totally agree, I was not bothered to make a post about it because you have a lot nerds coming around claiming to be RNG. But yes my missiles always hits the same target.
I totally agree, I was not bothered to make a post about it because you have a lot nerds coming around claiming to be RNG. But yes my missiles always hits the same target.
'always hits the same target'. No they don't. At worst you're lying to try to make your point and at best you're being lazy and exaggerating. Maybe the reason you're clearly so frustrated with people calling bs on things you say is because you spout bs. If you're argument is valid you don't need to exaggerate, lie or make hyperbolic claims to back it up. If they literally always hit the same target, from a decent sample size then just upload the replays on here and the evidence speaks for itself. You won't need to make snide insults at anyone who won't believe you because you've... You know... Actually bothered to provide some evidence?
It might be weighted to favour hitting the target it initially hit on the follow up missiles, I wouldn't absolutely dismiss that. It might not. If people bothered evidencing these things then we might be able to actually discuss it.
But you lot never do. Just a lot of confirmation bias, counting the misses and not the hits. It's very clear that you don't actually want to know, you just want some validation from online strangers that you're right to feel the way you do. Get some evidence together and let's all take a look together.
Some things in life must be a real struggle if this is how you rationalise things, it's a way to be very gullible and believe a lot of nonsense.
Funnt though how many cards Blizzard supposedly rigs to be unfair when that actually makes zero sense. Imprisoned Felmaw is just one example off the top of my head that you lot will insist is 'rigged' to always hit face. Along with also rigging your games to make you play against a deck that counters yours, rigging your decks so you draw badly, rigging your opponents deck so they draw well and the list goes on and on.
They are doing a really poor job of hiding all this rigged stuff in their game because you lot are right on their case about it and yet amazingly haven't been pulled up for it because if it's all true, it's pretty scandalous. Maybe gaming publications and journalists are all paid off by Blizzard so they don't report on it! Maybe Blizzard controls the elections as well?! Will only let people into office that will help them in pulling the wool over the eyes of the gaming community.
Hitting the same one of two targets with all three missiles will happen 1 out of every 4 times. First missile is irrelevant. 50% chance the 2nd missile hits the same one, 50% of the 3rd missile. Multiply this together, and it's a 25% chance. Hitting the "worse" of two minions with all 3 missiles will happen 1 in 8 times, half as often, since then the first missile actually matters.
So you cast a few Devolving Missiles against boards of two. With two casts, there's a 44% chance that one of those casts will lead to one minion being hit all 3 times.
It's going to be fairly common that something hinky will happen, something that looks unlikely. But there are enough outcomes that look unlikely that it's really easy to trick our minds into thinking something more complicated is going on.
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
I believe 1/16 would be two missiles, not three in my example.
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
I believe 1/16 would be two missiles, not three in my example.
First missile has 100% chance to hit a minion. Second and third missile each have 25% chance to also hit that minion. So the probability is
Best thing to do is start taking notes of whenever you play the card if you want to verify for yourself if your theory is correct. I would suspect it isn't, but that's just my opinion. I mean, I had an occurrence the other day when I played the card against a board with 3 minions. It hit the two minions I didnt care about (one of them twice) and ignored the huge divine shield taunt monster. I could have blamed it on a "bug" (or worse, that somehow Blizzard was coding the game to make me lose; yes, some actually believe this is a thing that happens, lol...), but in reality, it was likely just unfortunate happenstance.
Almost every time, this card seems to hit the same target if there's two targets. Almost everytime! Has anybody else noticed this? Either the card is bugged or I am just realllyyyy unlucky.
I'm not sure if there's a bug but I have definitely noticed that the vast majority of the time the devolving missiles will hit the same target. In the GM game earlier (I believe between Surrender and Blitzchung) where the card was played, out of 4 possible options it hit the same minion 3 times. That's a 1/64 chance, I believe. Would be interesting to see the results of all the times it was played in GM if anyone can be bothered.
It could just be being unlucky but yes in my experience (maining tempo mage currently) is it definitely happens more often than not.
I've noticed the same. Assumed I was unlucky, but it was crazy how it would constantly hit the same minion with all 3 missiles.
I totally agree, I was not bothered to make a post about it because you have a lot nerds coming around claiming to be RNG. But yes my missiles always hits the same target.
This seems to be like Imprisoned Facemaw and Rag shots.
'always hits the same target'. No they don't. At worst you're lying to try to make your point and at best you're being lazy and exaggerating. Maybe the reason you're clearly so frustrated with people calling bs on things you say is because you spout bs. If you're argument is valid you don't need to exaggerate, lie or make hyperbolic claims to back it up. If they literally always hit the same target, from a decent sample size then just upload the replays on here and the evidence speaks for itself. You won't need to make snide insults at anyone who won't believe you because you've... You know... Actually bothered to provide some evidence?
It might be weighted to favour hitting the target it initially hit on the follow up missiles, I wouldn't absolutely dismiss that. It might not. If people bothered evidencing these things then we might be able to actually discuss it.
But you lot never do. Just a lot of confirmation bias, counting the misses and not the hits. It's very clear that you don't actually want to know, you just want some validation from online strangers that you're right to feel the way you do. Get some evidence together and let's all take a look together.
Some things in life must be a real struggle if this is how you rationalise things, it's a way to be very gullible and believe a lot of nonsense.
Funnt though how many cards Blizzard supposedly rigs to be unfair when that actually makes zero sense. Imprisoned Felmaw is just one example off the top of my head that you lot will insist is 'rigged' to always hit face. Along with also rigging your games to make you play against a deck that counters yours, rigging your decks so you draw badly, rigging your opponents deck so they draw well and the list goes on and on.
They are doing a really poor job of hiding all this rigged stuff in their game because you lot are right on their case about it and yet amazingly haven't been pulled up for it because if it's all true, it's pretty scandalous. Maybe gaming publications and journalists are all paid off by Blizzard so they don't report on it! Maybe Blizzard controls the elections as well?! Will only let people into office that will help them in pulling the wool over the eyes of the gaming community.
Hitting the same one of two targets with all three missiles will happen 1 out of every 4 times. First missile is irrelevant. 50% chance the 2nd missile hits the same one, 50% of the 3rd missile. Multiply this together, and it's a 25% chance. Hitting the "worse" of two minions with all 3 missiles will happen 1 in 8 times, half as often, since then the first missile actually matters.
So you cast a few Devolving Missiles against boards of two. With two casts, there's a 44% chance that one of those casts will lead to one minion being hit all 3 times.
It's going to be fairly common that something hinky will happen, something that looks unlikely. But there are enough outcomes that look unlikely that it's really easy to trick our minds into thinking something more complicated is going on.
Check my latest reply @P4dge
https://hsreplay.net/replay/9X3ZSBJ6kvaCB3XkjtswkM
Just watched it happen to thijs in GMs with two minions on board. Im not saying its bugged, but ita kinda shady
1/16, but yeah, it's gonna happen sometimes
I don't know what would be the reason to code it to not be truly random, though...
I believe 1/16 would be two missiles, not three in my example.
Its 1/16 to hit any of the 4 minions 3 times, 1/64 to hit a specific minion 3 times.
You're both right, although the 1/16 stat is more applicable to this situation.
First missile has 100% chance to hit a minion. Second and third missile each have 25% chance to also hit that minion. So the probability is
1*.25²=.0625
Or 1/16.
This. There's a big issue of "what question are folks asking" here.
//
Anyhow, general formula:
Hit any minion all three times? 1/ (n^2) where n is the number of minions on board. 1/1, 1/4, 1/9, 1/16, etc.
Hit a specific minion all three times? 1/ (n^3). 1/1, 1/8, 1/27, 1/64, etc.
Best thing to do is start taking notes of whenever you play the card if you want to verify for yourself if your theory is correct. I would suspect it isn't, but that's just my opinion.
I mean, I had an occurrence the other day when I played the card against a board with 3 minions. It hit the two minions I didnt care about (one of them twice) and ignored the huge divine shield taunt monster. I could have blamed it on a "bug" (or worse, that somehow Blizzard was coding the game to make me lose; yes, some actually believe this is a thing that happens, lol...), but in reality, it was likely just unfortunate happenstance.
I noticed the same thing, while arcane missiles feels actually random but devolving missiles will hit same target most of the time
I wouldn't believed u but i saw the curent HS tournament. RNG fest with missles failing spectacularly.
Thought I was the only one noticing this behaviour.
I, once again think, that it is bad coding.
Nothing to see here, just full blown confirmation bias party.
And it happened again:
https://hsreplay.net/replay/H8QGtBwTfd8cLCKFHsKvyc