Hearthpwn

There is something weird with Zephrys after latest expansion. It really have given me idiotic options after that.

Like I was facing lethal against hunter, he had enough leper gnomes + hero power to finish me off. I could have clear the table with my own minions and I needed just one heal to survive, but I got 3 nonsense options, all without heal. It was just unbelievable how zephrys couldn't calculate obvious next turn lethal and how to survive it.

Quote from Wokitiki >>

There is something weird with Zephrys after latest expansion. It really have given me idiotic options after that.

Like I was facing lethal against hunter, he had enough leper gnomes + hero power to finish me off. I could have clear the table with my own minions and I needed just one heal to survive, but I got 3 nonsense options, all without heal. It was just unbelievable how zephrys couldn't calculate obvious next turn lethal and how to survive it.

 I guess it's working based on data from registered games. Since the expansion is new, it hasn't yet "learnt" the new game, hence its algorithm can be a bit lost sometimes. 

Assuming it indeed uses dara from played games and not just strict coding.

Quote from Wokitiki >>

There is something weird with Zephrys after latest expansion. It really have given me idiotic options after that.

Like I was facing lethal against hunter, he had enough leper gnomes + hero power to finish me off. I could have clear the table with my own minions and I needed just one heal to survive, but I got 3 nonsense options, all without heal. It was just unbelievable how zephrys couldn't calculate obvious next turn lethal and how to survive it.

 Pretty sure Blizzard didn't code Zephrys to look at deathrattles. There was an issue with 10+ mana minions. "Mechanical Whelp is an expensive card for a minion with 1 drop stats. This makes Zephrys think the deathrattle is worth 5 mana." While it doesn't really tell too much about how Zephrys work it might mean that he can't read what deathrattle does. I would suggest making lethal obvious from board with NO gnomes on it. I know it's annoying, but Zephrys coding has it's flaws.

Quote from rasmusm20 >>

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

 

 So I say I really think you murdered someone. I know you did because you could do it.  Now you have to prove you haven't done it because I said you did.

In any semi civilized country you are innocent until proven guilty, and all you have offered is at the very best circumstantial evidence for you being unlucky a few times. 

I don't know why you feel the need to discredit Blizzard, but you seem extremely salty at the moment, and honestly you seem like a person trying to win an argument by shouting the loudest. 

A lesson everyone should learn but you obviously haven't "When you are trying to make a claim and miscredit someone, you should have the evidence to back it up, not the other way around"

 So, to address your post.

I posted a circumstancial case as to why it made sense that blizzard manipulates the game. You say if I call you a murderer you have to prove you are not. If you see those as equivalent, i cannot help you. 

If you perceive my posts as angry, again I cannot help you. I'm not, though you seem to be.

As to your lesson. I did bring evidence, i also built foundation as to why the evidence should be considered by a thinking person. If you are unable to understand it, again I cannot help you. 

 

in b4 lock....lol

 Are you stupid or just trying to be?

I am not angry. Not at all, but you have given NO real evidence to support your claim, even though you apparently think you have. 

And obviously it was to compare your style of argument to something even you could understand was wrong...

 

Honestly I think we would all be happy if you could prove you are right, but for some reason you don't seem to either be able or willing or both

Seems like he is the type of person who always wants to have the last word, no matter what. Childish, but funny! XD

You are right,the amount of times that the right cards appear in this game is absolutely insane and totally against real odds

Quote from sigtrent >>

They are not attempts to shut down the discussion, they are counter-arguments. That's how arguments work, you present a view, others present a competing view. 

Git Gud etc... that's more an insult etc...  But pointing out valid statistical modeling is not.

Having played HS since the first set, I feel nothing in terms of card draw being non-randomized. Sometimes I top deck the card I need, sometimes I get complete crapola. Play 100 games with one deck and count the card draws, then compare it to expected odds, see what you get. It will never match perfectly but if it is wildly off you may have something. 

That said, I do think matchmaking is rigged to some degree. Blizzard is trying to smooth out the experience of winning and losing such that folks don't win too much or lose too much. The little spinner always lands on "worthy opponent" because that's more or less what the system is trying to ensure, you get someone that will offer you about the right amount of challenge for how well you are doing. Getting crushed, you get a little gimmie if they can find one for you. On a super hot streak? They will try to find you some hardcore challenge. Playing a crap deck (I often do) you may well get someone else dicking around. Play a total agro smasher deck and you won't get quite so many agro opponents because that would make things very lopsided. But you will get a few because sometimes it wants to stomp agro down a notch when it's running wild. That's my opinion, I can't back it up with facts. 

But I've not had any experiences that felt like they were tinkering with the in-game randomness and I've seen a lot of variation in the results of RNG rolls in similar situations. 

 I don't think its as simple as looking at the overall average. After all, an average is what a theoretical algorithm would be trying to achieve. You would have to look at the average draws on a game-by-game basis over a period of 100 games. If an algorithm wanted to make things harder on you over time, you would see good draws mostly in the first portions of those 100 games, you would then see an overall decline in good draws as games progressed. If you were to envision a graph where the better the draws, the higher the plot (on a 1-10 scale), it would start high and taper off as it progressed. If it were not the case, you would see a neutral line over time with their draws. This would be difficult to track as there are also other variables. But the fact that SO MANY people claim that draws just seems to be rigged, and myself also experience so many games where I get the absolute perfect draw at just the right time, ensuring certain victory, only for the other guy to get an even better, even more, perfect draw and get lethal - it just seems too surreal to be a coincidence. 

It’s pretty silly to think Blizzard isn’t manipulating this game to promote more money spent on it. The legendary drop rate is one well known example. 

They can never release the extent of the manipulation or a class action lawsuit would result. 

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

Quote from Biccus >>

Quote from sigtrent >>

They are not attempts to shut down the discussion, they are counter-arguments. That's how arguments work, you present a view, others present a competing view. 

Git Gud etc... that's more an insult etc...  But pointing out valid statistical modeling is not.

Having played HS since the first set, I feel nothing in terms of card draw being non-randomized. Sometimes I top deck the card I need, sometimes I get complete crapola. Play 100 games with one deck and count the card draws, then compare it to expected odds, see what you get. It will never match perfectly but if it is wildly off you may have something. 

That said, I do think matchmaking is rigged to some degree. Blizzard is trying to smooth out the experience of winning and losing such that folks don't win too much or lose too much. The little spinner always lands on "worthy opponent" because that's more or less what the system is trying to ensure, you get someone that will offer you about the right amount of challenge for how well you are doing. Getting crushed, you get a little gimmie if they can find one for you. On a super hot streak? They will try to find you some hardcore challenge. Playing a crap deck (I often do) you may well get someone else dicking around. Play a total agro smasher deck and you won't get quite so many agro opponents because that would make things very lopsided. But you will get a few because sometimes it wants to stomp agro down a notch when it's running wild. That's my opinion, I can't back it up with facts. 

But I've not had any experiences that felt like they were tinkering with the in-game randomness and I've seen a lot of variation in the results of RNG rolls in similar situations. 

 I don't think its as simple as looking at the overall average. After all, an average is what a theoretical algorithm would be trying to achieve. You would have to look at the average draws on a game-by-game basis over a period of 100 games. If an algorithm wanted to make things harder on you over time, you would see good draws mostly in the first portions of those 100 games, you would then see an overall decline in good draws as games progressed. If you were to envision a graph where the better the draws, the higher the plot (on a 1-10 scale), it would start high and taper off as it progressed. If it were not the case, you would see a neutral line over time with their draws. This would be difficult to track as there are also other variables. But the fact that SO MANY people claim that draws just seems to be rigged, and myself also experience so many games where I get the absolute perfect draw at just the right time, ensuring certain victory, only for the other guy to get an even better, even more, perfect draw and get lethal - it just seems too surreal to be a coincidence. 

 It's not. It is obvious to anyone who is paying attention. Even the people here with 7000 posts who fit the profile of a blizzard community manager seldom assert that it is not rigged. 

Instead they call people paranoid. They bring up inherent bias. They say it is not proven so it cannot be believed. They move the thread to a less viewed forum. All of which are tactics to silence a point of view. This game is manipulated, so are nearly all f2p games on the internet. This was a contentious and shocking discussion to be had in 2016. In 2020 it is pretty common knowledge. 

If this is so obvious to you, so much that there is no room for doubt (because let's be real, that is what you are trying to say in every single post you make here), I'm pretty sure you can give all of us a detailed and exact explanation on where the game is rigged/manipulated and how. I don't want stupid excuses or some missing points, you must be 100% accurate with a very long explanation. I'll be waiting for your reply. Let's see how much obvious all of this is to you. ;)

Quote from Biccus >>

But the fact that SO MANY people claim that draws just seems to be rigged, and myself also experience so many games where I get the absolute perfect draw at just the right time, ensuring certain victory, only for the other guy to get an even better, even more, perfect draw and get lethal - it just seems too surreal to be a coincidence. 

Who cares if even one million people on the internet claim something seems rigged, that proves nothing. How do you know most of them are not lying? We are not in court where you must tell the truth, we are on the internet, a cesspool of liars and bullshit.

As I said several times already, chances of this game being rigged in some way are high, but it must be proved. If it is so obvious as some claim here, a detailed and precise expanation on exactly where and how games are manipulated shouldn't be a problem, don't you think?

There is something I dont understand about these conspiracy theories. If I win a game my opponent loses a game. If I lose a game my opponent wins a game. Seriously, why would it matter to blizzard who gets the win?

It takes a lot of effort, time and money to make a "shadow code" that rigs the game and what are the gains? Getting everyone closer to 50% winrate is something that makes any profit for blizz? Is it worth the time and effort to rig the game from their perspective? Is it worth the risk of losing the entire playerbase if someone can confirm that its rigged?

If I was that evil money-hungry CEO who wants to rig the game for more profits, I would tell my employees to rig arena so no one could go infinite, because it would allow some f2p players to have a full collection without spending any money on the game and its unacceptable. But as we know, good players can go infinite in arena. If they dont rig arena why would they rig ranked?

Just my 2 cents, but Im obviously some blizzard employee since I dont think the game is rigged.

Dude: two times in a row my game (android) has crashed when in lethal for Diamond 5. First time was like "NOOOoooOoooOoooOo", but now this is kinda fishy.

By the way, I've also felt the matchup pattern you describe. 

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

Quote from beuzmaun >>

I find it very annoying that card draw is not completely RNG based. Obviously, cards needed for lethal are computed after each move and it's okay, but when it affects the top-deck or discover results I think that's not good. I think there's even a punish/reward algorithm that triggers this effect. You will start feeling it after a couple thousand games.

Opinion: If there's RNG, let it be pure RNG.

Before my kids were born i used to play physical MTG. I played competively, even made to 100 in the world at one point. Thousands of games over years. So I had a pretty good sense of what random felt like. 

When I first found hearthstone, I was overjoyed. Sure the game was simpler, but it was fun, it was deep enough and I decided to take it up. First I was limited by my collection, so I would not get past rank 8-10 in a given season. But then I crafted Dr. Boom and soon was knocking on the door of legend. 

But around that time I started really noticing funky things going on. The game giving me the worst possible hands and topdecks it could find time after time if I played too long. I would have a rush deck and get my 3 high casting cost cards in my opening hand, mulligan them away and then have them come back like boomerangs. 

I actually came on here years ago and asked the same question you were asking and I was met with a storm of insults, tinfoil hat memes, recommendations to git gud etc. At that point I did a lot of research into game design, reading about frustration plateaus and how they increase spending (candy crush is famous for this). I was also playing a phone game called clash Royale that had a card collecting mechanic. I could see how gaining cards in that game was not random, which made me question whether it was random here. 

What I came to realize is that hearthstone is engineered like all the other micro transaction games. Activision has patented methods that have proven successful to inspire spending. Blizzard gives symposiums on how to tinker the matchmaker to maximize 'player engagement'. What that really means is that they want to keep as many players playing and spending as possible. All parts of their game are built around this.

With the discover mechanic in general, and zephry's in particular. You can see they are perfectly capable of manipulating the results in a myriad of ways. And if you wanted to take a fair look at it, as a corporation with a responsibilty to their stockholders, they would be fired if they were not doing these things. So to me, it is simply common sense to assume that they do. And it is their right. 

The only part of it that bothers me, are the people here and on reddit etc. who will just act insanely aggressive if you talk about this stuff. They will try to get mods to ban it, they will try to engage you in a flame war simply for asking a legitimate question.

Now i am sure you will see a bunch of answers in this thread about perception bias, you will see some answers saying that you cannot assume that hearthsone isn't random because you have not spent thousands of hours running tests, you will see all kinds of attempts to shut down the discussion. Which is really troubling because kids play this game, and they should know the reason that they are having such insanely bad luck is that the game is trying to make them buy cards. 

 

 You don’t think that all of those answers are as naive as it seems right. As a game dev company they need to keep comments as they would like to see. So there has to be some people in here from blizzard too.

Quote from LordYaraxxus >>

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

Quote from beuzmaun >>

I find it very annoying that card draw is not completely RNG based. Obviously, cards needed for lethal are computed after each move and it's okay, but when it affects the top-deck or discover results I think that's not good. I think there's even a punish/reward algorithm that triggers this effect. You will start feeling it after a couple thousand games.

Opinion: If there's RNG, let it be pure RNG.

Before my kids were born i used to play physical MTG. I played competively, even made to 100 in the world at one point. Thousands of games over years. So I had a pretty good sense of what random felt like. 

When I first found hearthstone, I was overjoyed. Sure the game was simpler, but it was fun, it was deep enough and I decided to take it up. First I was limited by my collection, so I would not get past rank 8-10 in a given season. But then I crafted Dr. Boom and soon was knocking on the door of legend. 

But around that time I started really noticing funky things going on. The game giving me the worst possible hands and topdecks it could find time after time if I played too long. I would have a rush deck and get my 3 high casting cost cards in my opening hand, mulligan them away and then have them come back like boomerangs. 

I actually came on here years ago and asked the same question you were asking and I was met with a storm of insults, tinfoil hat memes, recommendations to git gud etc. At that point I did a lot of research into game design, reading about frustration plateaus and how they increase spending (candy crush is famous for this). I was also playing a phone game called clash Royale that had a card collecting mechanic. I could see how gaining cards in that game was not random, which made me question whether it was random here. 

What I came to realize is that hearthstone is engineered like all the other micro transaction games. Activision has patented methods that have proven successful to inspire spending. Blizzard gives symposiums on how to tinker the matchmaker to maximize 'player engagement'. What that really means is that they want to keep as many players playing and spending as possible. All parts of their game are built around this.

With the discover mechanic in general, and zephry's in particular. You can see they are perfectly capable of manipulating the results in a myriad of ways. And if you wanted to take a fair look at it, as a corporation with a responsibilty to their stockholders, they would be fired if they were not doing these things. So to me, it is simply common sense to assume that they do. And it is their right. 

The only part of it that bothers me, are the people here and on reddit etc. who will just act insanely aggressive if you talk about this stuff. They will try to get mods to ban it, they will try to engage you in a flame war simply for asking a legitimate question.

Now i am sure you will see a bunch of answers in this thread about perception bias, you will see some answers saying that you cannot assume that hearthsone isn't random because you have not spent thousands of hours running tests, you will see all kinds of attempts to shut down the discussion. Which is really troubling because kids play this game, and they should know the reason that they are having such insanely bad luck is that the game is trying to make them buy cards. 

 

 You don’t think that all of those answers are as naive as it seems right. As a game dev company they need to keep comments as they would like to see. So there has to be some people in here from blizzard too.

You must be that kind of people who love to follow their heart instead of their mind in cases like this. Good for you, bro, but I'm not like that. If I am going to accuse someone of something like this, I have to be 100% certain of what I'm talking about, because those are the rules and I would never go against them, especially for my own good and those who I care about. We live in a society of human beings, not monkeys.

Quote from Poghy >>

There is something I dont understand about these conspiracy theories. If I win a game my opponent loses a game. If I lose a game my opponent wins a game. Seriously, why would it matter to blizzard who gets the win?

Because if I let you win all the time with the one or two decks you can build without grinding you ass off, you'd keep being a f2p. If you look at it, it's damage control, which business-wise is a good move. I don't know if they do or don't, but until proven and extent, I've seen weirder luck playing around in real life cards than I saw here. 

Quote from Benom_2207 >>

Quote from Poghy >>

There is something I dont understand about these conspiracy theories. If I win a game my opponent loses a game. If I lose a game my opponent wins a game. Seriously, why would it matter to blizzard who gets the win?

Because if I let you win all the time with the one or two decks you can build without grinding you ass off, you'd keep being a f2p. If you look at it, it's damage control, which business-wise is a good move. I don't know if they do or don't, but until proven and extent, I've seen weirder luck playing around in real life cards than I saw here. 

 I think you are missing the point. If I win a lot that means that my opponents are losing a lot which means they will have the urge to buy more packs (maybe). If they see f2p success as a damage, they can do a lot of other things to do "damage control" instead of rigging the game. Like printing OP legendary cards, as they always do.

Also in the past it was proven by many streamers that you can get to legend with a f2p deck, and they didnt grind their ass out by doing it.

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

they would like to see. So there has to be some people in here from blizzard too.

You must be that kind of people who love to follow their heart instead of their mind in cases like this. Good for you, bro, but I'm not like that. If I am going to accuse someone of something like this, I have to be 100% certain of what I'm talking about, because those are the rules and I would never go against them, especially for my own good and those who I care about. We live in a society of human beings, not monkeys.

This is the language of evasion and supression. The community managers here hate to see conversations about how rigged this game is because it is bad for business. So they continue to engage in the same tactics to shut it down. Name calling and denial, same thing over and over. 

 

Imagine if you lived in a society where it was people's job to hide manipulative tactics that prey on children....what a life your living......

Denial of what though?  The only so called evidence presented so far are stories of losses and top decks.  OMG, he got the perfect card - when in reality there are often several cards that would have had a similar enough result.  You switched decks after facing your worst matchup 3 times in a row only to play your current decks worst matchup - well I have switched decks before and continued to play against what I saw before...so why did Blizzard cheat you and not me?

All your theories about how it's rigged can be disproved with very little time investment.  Why is it that you can't present better evidence and theories?

I'm not denying the possibility of blizzard rigging the system in some way.  They almost certainly could if they wanted to.

And this hardly counts as a conversation for rigged game play.  People post there stories while others try to use that story to justify their own bad beat.  If we took everything in just this thread as evidence of rigging, then Blizzard is rigging - Starting Hand, mulligans, every draw after that(got to make the game feel competitive after all), every single randomly generated effect, who wins, who has losing/winning streaks, who gets to progress through the ranks, who wins tournaments, who gets disconnected(lol at that one, fix your internet kid)...you get the point.

If this isn't ALL happening, why should I give your claims any more credit than the rest?

Quote from 3nnu1 >>

they would like to see. So there has to be some people in here from blizzard too.

You must be that kind of people who love to follow their heart instead of their mind in cases like this. Good for you, bro, but I'm not like that. If I am going to accuse someone of something like this, I have to be 100% certain of what I'm talking about, because those are the rules and I would never go against them, especially for my own good and those who I care about. We live in a society of human beings, not monkeys.

This is the language of evasion and supression. The community managers here hate to see conversations about how rigged this game is because it is bad for business. So they continue to engage in the same tactics to shut it down. Name calling and denial, same thing over and over. 

 

Imagine if you lived in a society where it was people's job to hide manipulative tactics that prey on children....what a life your living......

"Manipulative tactics that prey on children"? LMAO! XD

Imagine if you lived in a society where it was some people's hobby to try to damage others reputation for pure pleasure and fun... what a life your living... ;)