So I am playing Odd Aggro Mage (yes hate away but climbing to 5 b4 I can play other decks). The thing is I opened a subject 9 (wasnt gonna really craft him), and I decided to tinker with the deck and add subject 9 + mirror entity instead of two nightblades. Immediately on a win steak from 10 to 5.
Now my question is if you ever felt like certain cards show up exactly on the turn they are supposed to be played. I mean I always drew Subject 9 either on turn 4 or turn 5! And he skyrockets my win rate. Do you feel blizzard secretly weight in more chance for certain cards to be drawn?
Im sorry I dont have videos to prove this but it was really weird and my win rate backs it up.
draw chance is just chance. if you got lucky then its because you were lucky. no other explanation works.
I undestand that, perhaps the title is misleading. I am asking if you feel there is a secret weight on cards? Don't you feel sometimes some cars hit the perfect curve?
So I am playing Odd Aggro Mage (yes hate away but climbing to 5 b4 I can play other decks). The thing is I opened a subject 9 (wasnt gonna really craft him), and I decided to tinker with the deck and add subject 9 + mirror entity instead of two nightblades. Immediately on a win steak from 10 to 5.
Now my question is if you ever felt like certain cards show up exactly on the turn they are supposed to be played. I mean I always drew Subject 9 either on turn 4 or turn 5! And he skyrockets my win rate. Do you feel blizzard secretly weight in more chance for certain cards to be drawn?
Im sorry I dont have videos to prove this but it was really weird and my win rate backs it up.
Haha for this topic i give you the legendary video of Raza priest :D entire video is great, but watch from 3:16 onward. And to answer your question, yes, some cards do and did feel like they show up exactly on the turn you need them. Confirmation bias is a thing, but it for sure makes for some funny moments :)
draw chance is just chance. if you got lucky then its because you were lucky. no other explanation works.
I undestand that, perhaps the title is misleading. I am asking if you feel there is a secret weight on cards? Don't you feel sometimes some cars hit the perfect curve?
You should ever base statistics on how you feel. It's cool that you drew well, but winning a few games in a row to lucky draws isn't evidence of anything. Until someone comes up with a large sample size of data showing that card draw aren't random (hsreplay would be able to see any disparities pretty easily), there is no reason to assume that draws aren't random.
I don't think that RNG is rigged, per se, but I do see strange coincidences that make me think that the RNG algorithm is not exactly random.
I see it most often when the same minion is generated by a random generation effect in related games, especially Arena. I saw a such a strange coincidence last night. I was playing Wild Casual to fool around with a Shudderwock C'thun deck. I went against the same Mage player twice in a row. The two games were remarkably similar in terms of the order of cards played. In both games she played Astromancer with nine cards in hand, and in both games Astromancer summoned Krul the Unshackled.
I know that there is always a chance of that, but it is a small chance. In Wild, it is smaller than in Standard. I don't think that an algorithm was trying to influence the outcome of the game, but I do suspect that the algorithm is not perfectly random.
With a very high number of games, you SHOULD expect spooky coincidences with a perfectly random system.
I guess. But when a pattern is noticeable, it raises suspicions as to the robustness of the RNG. Again, my subjective experience is that in similar environments like subsequent games in an Arena run, the RNG algorithm tends to produce identical cards (minions/spells) from recurring random generation effects more often than expected.
I know next to nothing about RNG programming techniques, but my understanding is that RNG from a computer program only simulates true randomness.
With a very high number of games, you SHOULD expect spooky coincidences with a perfectly random system.
I guess. But when a pattern is noticeable, it raises suspicions as to the robustness of the RNG. Again, my subjective experience is that in similar environments like subsequent games in an Arena run, the RNG algorithm tends to produce identical cards (minions/spells) from recurring random generation effects more often than expected.
I know next to nothing about RNG programming techniques, but my understanding is that RNG from a computer program only simulates true randomness.
It's impossible to simulate true randomness, correct. However, we can get pretty damn close.
What you're describing is a memory bias. Of course you're going to remember the times when you got the exact same minion twice in a row from a random effect or something like that - that's a 'pattern' your brain will pick up on. All the times you played cards and just got different, unrelated minions, you didn't notice or care, because why would you?
I remember the times when I managed to go Stonehill Defender into Stonehill Defender into Stonehill Defender all in one turn. I don't remember how many times I've gone Stonehill Defender into... Lord of the Arena, I guess, because that's nowhere near as interesting.
Anyway, premise of the thread has been discussed a million times. Unless you're going to bring hard data - proper hard data, not 'oh I played 100 games, is that enough' - then nothing new is going to be gained.
I found the thread because an in game tip screen said something like, "certain cards have a higher chance of being drawn."
So I was googling to try to figure out how to tell which cards those are and what exactly is meant by that.
Obviously, cards that you have more of are more likely to be drawn. Or if you have "draw a minion," then obviously it increases the likelihood of drawing a minion from your deck.
The tip could have just meant something like that, but it also makes sense to me that legendary, epic, and rare cards would have a higher probability of being drawn than base cards, which results in a higher draw rate.
I really don't know, but I've played a lot, and there are certain cards in some of my decks that I don't think I've ever drawn and others that show up basically every game.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
So I am playing Odd Aggro Mage (yes hate away but climbing to 5 b4 I can play other decks). The thing is I opened a subject 9 (wasnt gonna really craft him), and I decided to tinker with the deck and add subject 9 + mirror entity instead of two nightblades. Immediately on a win steak from 10 to 5.
Now my question is if you ever felt like certain cards show up exactly on the turn they are supposed to be played. I mean I always drew Subject 9 either on turn 4 or turn 5! And he skyrockets my win rate. Do you feel blizzard secretly weight in more chance for certain cards to be drawn?
Im sorry I dont have videos to prove this but it was really weird and my win rate backs it up.
draw chance is just chance. if you got lucky then its because you were lucky. no other explanation works.
Rejoice, for even in death, you have become children of Thanos.
I undestand that, perhaps the title is misleading. I am asking if you feel there is a secret weight on cards? Don't you feel sometimes some cars hit the perfect curve?
Feel free to play 100 games with your deck and tell us if some cards are more susceptible to be drawn !
But with only a few games, it could be bare luck (and I assure you it is)
There really needs to be a rigged RNG sub forum
Haha for this topic i give you the legendary video of Raza priest :D entire video is great, but watch from 3:16 onward. And to answer your question, yes, some cards do and did feel like they show up exactly on the turn you need them. Confirmation bias is a thing, but it for sure makes for some funny moments :)
- Click Here To Join Us On Discord! -
Aaaaaaand here we go again...
Sigh...
You should ever base statistics on how you feel. It's cool that you drew well, but winning a few games in a row to lucky draws isn't evidence of anything. Until someone comes up with a large sample size of data showing that card draw aren't random (hsreplay would be able to see any disparities pretty easily), there is no reason to assume that draws aren't random.
I don't think that RNG is rigged, per se, but I do see strange coincidences that make me think that the RNG algorithm is not exactly random.
I see it most often when the same minion is generated by a random generation effect in related games, especially Arena. I saw a such a strange coincidence last night. I was playing Wild Casual to fool around with a Shudderwock C'thun deck. I went against the same Mage player twice in a row. The two games were remarkably similar in terms of the order of cards played. In both games she played Astromancer with nine cards in hand, and in both games Astromancer summoned Krul the Unshackled.
I know that there is always a chance of that, but it is a small chance. In Wild, it is smaller than in Standard. I don't think that an algorithm was trying to influence the outcome of the game, but I do suspect that the algorithm is not perfectly random.
With a very high number of games, you SHOULD expect spooky coincidences with a perfectly random system.
I guess. But when a pattern is noticeable, it raises suspicions as to the robustness of the RNG. Again, my subjective experience is that in similar environments like subsequent games in an Arena run, the RNG algorithm tends to produce identical cards (minions/spells) from recurring random generation effects more often than expected.
I know next to nothing about RNG programming techniques, but my understanding is that RNG from a computer program only simulates true randomness.
It's impossible to simulate true randomness, correct. However, we can get pretty damn close.
What you're describing is a memory bias. Of course you're going to remember the times when you got the exact same minion twice in a row from a random effect or something like that - that's a 'pattern' your brain will pick up on. All the times you played cards and just got different, unrelated minions, you didn't notice or care, because why would you?
I remember the times when I managed to go Stonehill Defender into Stonehill Defender into Stonehill Defender all in one turn. I don't remember how many times I've gone Stonehill Defender into... Lord of the Arena, I guess, because that's nowhere near as interesting.
Anyway, premise of the thread has been discussed a million times. Unless you're going to bring hard data - proper hard data, not 'oh I played 100 games, is that enough' - then nothing new is going to be gained.
You can find me here! Good luck everyone!
I found the thread because an in game tip screen said something like, "certain cards have a higher chance of being drawn."
So I was googling to try to figure out how to tell which cards those are and what exactly is meant by that.
Obviously, cards that you have more of are more likely to be drawn. Or if you have "draw a minion," then obviously it increases the likelihood of drawing a minion from your deck.
The tip could have just meant something like that, but it also makes sense to me that legendary, epic, and rare cards would have a higher probability of being drawn than base cards, which results in a higher draw rate.
I really don't know, but I've played a lot, and there are certain cards in some of my decks that I don't think I've ever drawn and others that show up basically every game.