Hearthpwn

Today we try to determine the most popular set in Standard mode, and try to disprove the myth that Classic Packs are the best choice for new players. To do this, we collected a huge amount of statistics and carried out special calculations. Also, we will announce the results of a large-scale Packs Value Experiment. As you all know, there is no universal advice on choosing a set to buy. There are many different factors that are significant. Only you can make the right decision, but we can help you find packs with the best cards and maximum profit. So which sets have the most value? Let's talk about each set in more detail.

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Basic − 12.4% (55\132) cards played -  42%

Traditionally, we will start with the basic cards. Basic cards always have a stable share of presence in the meta-game; from 12 to 15%. Nerfs, new expansions, or rotations generally have no effect on this. In general, 42% of all basic cards are used in the Meta game.Here are the top 8 most popular cards. Each class has several very strong cards that are a solid foundation for the game, but the Rogue uses basic cards more often.

Witchwood − 7.4% (47\129) Legendary Popularity - 6%,

Cards played -  36%, Pack Benefit - 32%.

Now let's talk about the worst set. Unfortunately this is The Witchwood. This set has never had a global influence on the meta-game. After its release, it occupied only 15% of the popular decks. Subsequently, the cards were used less and less with each new nerf and new set. The only exceptions are two legendary cards, which had an incredible negative impact on the game. Now only 7 and a half percent of the cards in popular decks come from this set. This means that a 30 card deck contains only 2 Witchwood cards. Currently 47 out of 129 cards are used by players, which is only 36% of the cards. Also, on the screen you can see the number of cards distributed by rarity. Pay attention to epic and legendary cards. It shows the number of cards that have more than 1% popularity.The popularity of all legendary cards is only 6%. This means that only every 16th legendary card in the meta-game is a card from The Witchwood. The most popular of them is Hagatha The Witch.

Surely the premature movement of very popular legendary cards such as Baku and Genn to Wild had a negative effect on this set’s statistics. The Potential Benefit of Pack for the Witchwood is only 32%.

Every video we try to give you as much useful information as possible. This time we decided to add one new indicator. This is the Potential Benefit of Pack Buying. This indicator is affected by: popularity of cards in set, drop rate of this cards, and cost in arcane dust Using this indicator as a percentage, you can imagine how many useful card you can potentially receive in one pack. So, if this indicator is 100%, then all the cards from the set are used in the meta-game and you are guaranteed to get all 5 useful cards from your pack. If this figure is 20%, then potentially only one card from the pack may be useful.

Rastakhan's − 8.0% (53\135) Legendary Popularity - 6% (10)

Cards played -  39%, Pack Benefit - 31%.

Now let's talk about another outsider.

Rastakhan's Rumble is the least impactful set of cards we’ve ever seen. The use of these cards in the meta-game has fallen from the moment of the expansion’s release, from a maximum 12% to a minimum of 8% after the Rise of Shadows release. The Potential Benefit of a Rastakhan's Pack is only 31%, this is the lowest of any set.

Classic − 27.3% (99\237) Legendary Popularity - 38% (14)

cards played -  42%, Pack Benefit - 36%. 

The Classic set is the invariable main component of the game, and always was the best choice for new players. Every guide claimed this. Even our past guide is no exception. But is this really true? We should pragmatically review this issue.

In general, more than 27% of the cards in the meta-game are from the Classic Set. This figure increased significantly after the rotation. This is definitely the highest result. In other words, on average, each deck contains 8 classic cards out of 30. But we always forget that this set contains almost two times more cards than other sets. But only 99 cards out of 237 are played. So, 42% of the cards are involved in the meta. The Potential Classic Pack Benefit is only 37%. This means that potentially only every third card in packs will be useful to you. We predict that this figure will decline with the release of each new expansion this year. In addition, every year the Classic Set gradually loses some powerful cards, which are sent to the Hall of Fame.

All this does not look very valuable for new players, so what’s the benefit of the classic packs? Certainly, the main advantage of the Classic cards is that they do not rotate out of the Standard format, aside from some cards that get added to the Hall of Fame. In any case, we came to the conclusion that the need to invest resources in classic packs for new players is greatly exaggerated.

Boomsday − 21.0% (68\135) Legendary Popularity - 14% (12)

Cards played -  50%, Pack Benefit - 43%.

Next in line is Boomsday. This set has experienced the most dramatic fall after the release of Rastakhan, but after the rotation and release of Rise of Shadows, the cards from this set provoked a huge explosion in the meta. The overall popularity of the legendary cards in this set is 14%. The main place is occupied by Zilliax. This card might be the most popular card we’ve ever seen. Every second popular deck uses it. Also, you should pay attention to Dr. Boom, Mad Genius. Almost all Warrior decks use this hero card. And do not forget about Whizbang, the most unique legendary card, which definitely remains a favorite for a large number of players. Whizbang will be useful if you don’t have a large collection, or if you love fun. Besides this, 7 other Legendary cards have more than 1% popularity. The Potential Benefit of a Boomsday Pack is 43%

Rise of Shadows − 23.9% (98\135) Legendary Popularity - 35% (23)

Cards played -  73%, Pack Benefit - 62%.

 And finally, in first place is the Rise of Shadows. There are several reasons why this set is the best to buy. First of all, currently 73% of the cards are involved in competitive play. The second reason is that all 23 legendary cards are used with varying popularity in meta-decks. And now for the last reason. This set has the highest Potential Benefit ratio, with a potential of almost 62%. In other words, 3 out of 5 cards in your pack may be useful.

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Recommendations

So, what should players do with their resources?  This is an interesting question, and we can formulate several recommendations.

If you’re new to the game, it’s worth buying up to 10 packs of every set until you get a guaranteed legendary card. Do not buy The Witchwood and Rastakhan. The best solution is to craft the necessary cards from these sets. We also do not recommend buying Classic Packs if you want to get the maximum benefit. You will get a certain number of packs for free as a reward from quests and Tavern Brawls.

At the moment, the best set to buy is Rise of Shadows, and don’t forget that the cards from this set will be relevant for two years! You can also save your resources for the next expansion, or for solo content.

 

 

Thanks for this thread, this informations i really useful! 

Hope we can see another post with Hearhstone Maths, and that people give some love to a post so useful like this one, ive became F2P after buying all the pre-purchase expansions until un'goro where i gave up since i always hit the pity timer of 40 packs for a legendary, and ended fed up with Blizzard drying money system to their players (Playing since beta), and this kind of post helps on keeping up with collecting cards easier and at the same time be able to craft any deck basically.

Kind Regards,

Thank you so much, I am very glad! :]

Very nice editing man. Thought this was an official blizzard video or something

What Hearthstone packs should buy in winter 2019.

I have compiled a list, for the seventh time, of the most popular sets from Standard mode.
Every week I process the results of differents meta reports and calculate the popularity of decks, strong archetypes, and cards on the ladder, as well as the packs popularity ratio.
(vicioussyndicate.com, tempostorm.com, hsreplay.net)
 

1 Classic − 19,9% (109\236) Legendary Popularity - 18% (15) Cards play - 46%
2 Kobolds & C. − 18,8% (76\135) Legendary Popularity - 11% (14) Cards play - 56%
3 Ungoro − 11,4% (57\135) Legendary Popularity - 7% (13) Cards play - 42%
4 F. Throne − 11,3% (50\135) Legendary Popularity - 25% (15) Cards play - 37%
5 Rastakhan's − 10,0% (69\135) Legendary Popularity - 13% (19) Cards play - 51%
6 Witchwood − 7,4% (51\135) Legendary Popularity - 13% (13) Cards play - 38%
7 Boomsday − 7,2% (64\135) Legendary Popularity - 12% (14) Cards play - 47%

Conclusion

If you’re new to the game you should always remember that Blizzard guarantees a Legendary card in the first 10 packs that you open for a specific expansion.  It’s worth buying up to 10 of every card pack. Buy packs from the store one at a time, until you get a guaranteed legendary card. After that buy only classic sets and build a strong foundation.

Do not buy Journey to Un'Goro, Knights of the Frozen Throne or Kobolds & Catacombs. These sets are the most popular for now, but in April they will leave the Standard mode and go to the Wild format. If you have a desire to play Wild, you can consider buying packs from the Frozen Throne set in order to obtain strong legendary cards, and Kobolds for obtaining strong epic cards.

At the present moment, I do not recommend investing in the Year of the Raven sets. The best solution is to craft the necessary cards from these sets. If you have a great desire to buy packs, then the best solution would be to buy from the Rastakhan set. It is the most popular among the sets that will remain in the game in April.

So what should I do with my resources? I have several options. Save your gold until the new expansion in April, or you can replenish your classic collection. Now is the moment to fill in the gaps. Besides, you will get a lot of dust that you can save or use to create cards from the Raven Year sets. Or you can play in Arena mode.

What Hearthstone packs should buy in spring-summer 2019.

Every week I process the results of differents meta reports and calculate the popularity of decks, strong archetypes, and cards on the ladder, as well as the packs popularity ratio.
(vicioussyndicate.com, tempostorm.com, hsreplay.net)
 

Set Popularity - determines the percentage of cards from the set in the meta game.
(For example, 20% means that every fifth card in popular meta decks belongs to this set.)

Legendary Popularity - determines the percentage of legendary cards from the set in the meta game.
(For example, 20% means that every fifth legendary card in popular meta decks belongs to this set.)

Potential Benefit is affected by: popularity of cards in set, drop rate of this cards, and cost in arcane dust Using this indicator as a percentage, you can imagine how many useful card you can potentially receive in one pack. So, if this indicator is 100%, then all the cards from the set are used in the meta-game and you are guaranteed to get all 5 useful cards from your pack. If this figure is 20%, then potentially only one card from the pack may be useful.

1 Rise of Shadows − 23.9% (98\135), Cards played - 73%.
Legendary Popularity - 35% (23\23)
Pack Benefit - 62%.

2 Boomsday − 21.0% (68\135), Cards played - 50%.
Legendary Popularity - 14% (12\23)
Pack Benefit - 43%.

3 Classic − 27.3% (99\237) Cards played - 42%.
Legendary Popularity - 38% (14\31)
Pack Benefit - 37%.

4 Rastakhan's − 8.0% (53\135), Cards played - 36%.
Legendary Popularity - 6% (10\23)
Pack Benefit - 31%.

5 Witchwood − 7.4% (47\129), Cards played - 36%.
Legendary Popularity - 6% (7\21)
Pack Benefit - 32%.

Conclusion

If you’re new to the game, it’s worth buying up to 10 packs of every set until you get a guaranteed legendary card. Do not buy The Witchwood and Rastakhan. The best solution is to craft the necessary cards from these sets. We also do not recommend buying Classic Packs if you want to get the maximum benefit. You will get a certain number of packs for free as a reward from quests and Tavern Brawls.

At the moment, the best set to buy is Rise of Shadows, and don’t forget that the cards from this set will be relevant for two years! You can also save your resources for the next expansion, or for solo content.

 

The calculations are based on whats being played at the time of the post. One thing it doesnt take into account, or at least I didnt see it, is the longevity of the cards. While I agree that at some point in the second year of paying for Classic packs is not a good buy. People in the first year of playing though should be buying for long term collection building. They should be buying Classic packs in addition to the current year sets.

Quote from IDBY >>

The calculations are based on whats being played at the time of the post. One thing it doesnt take into account, or at least I didnt see it, is the longevity of the cards. While I agree that at some point in the second year of paying for Classic packs is not a good buy. People in the first year of playing though should be buying for long term collection building. They should be buying Classic packs in addition to the current year sets.

 Their metrics don't take many things into account, they're mostly for fun and shouldn't be taken seriously.  It's just complied data, take it for what it is people.

Quote from IDBY >>

The calculations are based on whats being played at the time of the post. One thing it doesnt take into account, or at least I didnt see it, is the longevity of the cards. While I agree that at some point in the second year of paying for Classic packs is not a good buy. People in the first year of playing though should be buying for long term collection building. They should be buying Classic packs in addition to the current year sets.

 You are right, this data may change. I have been doing calculations every week for almost two years, and most often, the coefficient of popularity of sets does not change significantly, but may occur changes in the popularity of cards. Significant changes occur only after the release of the new expansion or after the global nerf. If this happens, I will publish new calculations. :]

 

I love these videos!  For me, I personally tend to open enough at launch that I have all the common and rares, most of the epics, and then around 15 legendaries from the set.  I then hold dust, wait to see what I want to craft, and go from there.

I also track how many packs I've opened from each set without a legendary opening.  That way if I am close to getting a legendary card from the "pity timer" I can decide if I want to buy packs in that set.  Which I tend to do buying one at a time since I am really just going after the legendary and don't want to waste gold on extra "dust packs".

EDIT: I also tend to start hoarding gold about halfway through the expansion.

As a new player, I just found out about your channel. I am truly overwhelmed. The quality - content and production wise - simply blew my mind. Please keep doing this fantastic work and never stop!

Thank you very much. I'm very flattered :]