Here is the data reaper analysis of matchups. Look as the Crystal core rogue is entirely green except for matchups against token druid, pirate warrior and other aggressive decks. You can only beat Rogue by going face and killing them by turn 5. It is as easy as that.
'Entirely green' except for 7 red matchups though, and in a chart tracking 24 different deck match ups, 7 out 24 is about a third of the match ups and I wouldn't call that insignificant. In fact, Data Reaper has this to say in the write up that went along with that graph you shared (bold highlights are mine):
Let’s talk about Rogue, and start with the most talked about deck in the game, which is the quest driven, Crystal Core Rogue. This archetype’s matchup spread looks like a board of checkers. It counters any control deck that doesn’t have the capability to pressure it in the early game, but gets utterly destroyed by aggressive decks that do just that, as well as several of the Mage archetypes that carry burn damage and Ice Block. The fact its matchup spread is so polarizing means it will always be relevant to some degree, especially in the tournament scene, and at high legends ranks where counter-queuing is common. However, the deck that defined the Meta in the early days of Un’Goro, is not dominating it. It has glaring weaknesses that can be exploited.
With a match up spread like what Quest Rogue has, I'm not surprised that Quest Rogue isn't dominating. Right now we have a cyclical rock paper scissors meta: Aggro > Rouge > Control > Aggro, etc., and deck diversity is at an all time high, so I'd say things are pretty good right now.
You can only beat Rogue by going face and killing them by turn 5. It is as easy as that.
Early pressure is a good game plan against Quest Rogue, so I would agree with you there, but you almost make it sound like if you don't kill Quest Rogue by turn 5 its all over. I have about 20 ladder games of Quest Rogue so far and the average game length is 9 turns and many of them have felt like epic close games due to my opponent's aggressive game play. Quest Rogue wins in a Midrange'ish time frame, aiming to capitalize on some form of value between turns 7 and 10. Its not as fast as Pirate Warrior in my experience. Looking at my games from last season, my earliest wins with Pirate Warrior were between turns 4 and 6.
it's insane that they reliably have the quest done on turn 4...
Turn 4 with really good draws? Sure, that is fast. Reliably done by turn 4? Statistically less likely than what most people are saying. In about 20 or so ladder matches with Quest Rogue, I've completed the Quest on turn 4 exactly once. 20 games isn't a large sample size, but in my experience the quest is completed on average on turn seven and unless you also had preparation, you usually aren't going to have enough mana to also cast it the same turn you got it.
While others have commented that Dirty Rat only slows the Quest down for a turn, it is still an important tech card against Quest Rogue and a few other Quest decks and you should be able to kill whatever Dirty Rat pulls from a Quest Rogue deck if you have anything else on the board already. Seeing as Gadgetzan Ferryman and Youthful Brewmaster are minions, if anything you else you'll deny them some of their bounce if you miss the minion they have chosen as their four-of target.
quest rouge is just like jade druid except it gets rolling by turn 4 or 5. So thank you quest rouge for forcing the meta into aggro or nothing.
Me, you have forced me to play silence priest, so don't complain when you get hit with a 48 attack razor leaf on turn 4.
Like I mentioned earlier, Quest Rogue finishes the quest on average around turn 7 for me using Mk33r's legend list, which should be plenty of time to do something. I think Silence Priest is cool and would welcome a match against it, win or lose, so you won't hear me complaining. If you have replays of a turn four 48 attack razor leaf, I'd love to see it (not sarcasm because that sounds like an epic game to watch).
This comparison has probably been made a lot, but this deck really reminds me of Grim Patron Warrior.
I would agree that it feels similar, but the thing about Patron Warrior was that it had the tools to stall the game if it needed them and generally just has a better proactive gameplan. Quest Rogue's limiting factor is while they can bounce a bunch of charge dudes at you, they aren't running very high quality cards to contest the board. It's a deck that I'm certainly curious to see develop since I think there's room for a more flexible list that doesn't just go all-in, but I think the bounce approach just requires such a critical mass of clunky cards that it's hard to see it becoming the new Patron.
As long as it remains in its current state of dying to a stiff breeze, I don't really mind the list being good. I think it actually has an interesting win condition.
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It can be softcountered by dirty rat sure, aggro bumps on it .
BUT it's a really toxic mechanic wich is also design limitating. If they don't nerf it I wonder how the next expansion's one drops look like.(maybe they don't print any Kappa).
Been playing since Beta. Pirate Warrior was bad. Quest Rogue is worse. I'm uninstalling. Sad I put so much time into this game. If Blizz just would take advantage that their CCG is digital they would have less people quit. Brode showed how easy it was to tweek stats in excel. They need to do monthly tweeks. Let the community help. Stop removing cards from the game by 'nerfing' them into stupidity. Buff cards nobody plays. Why is this such a hard concept?
I'm convinced they have no reasons for these things and that because they are a business they have corporate logic.
I'm voting with my dollar, since that's the only thing they seem to understand.
For anyone interested in stats, VS, HSReplays and Metastats provide data sets which are updated every few hours - I won't bother linking to each site.
As of this morning, Quest Rogue has the 21st best win-rate on ladder from Ranks 5 through Legend. From Ranks 20 through 6, the deck bounces between the bottom of Tier 2 and the bottom of Tier 3. Miracle Rogue outperforms the deck considerably (often with a +2% win-rate) at nearly every rung on the ladder. While the deck might be frustrating to play against, claims regarding the power level of the Rogue quest appear to be losing traction.
The problem is how one sided the games are either your deck stomps and its 7 minutes of boring going through the motions or you get stomped by it again going through the motions on the chance they draw nothing.
This deck isnt the only issue but is the main issue I have with hearthstone in how polarized the match-ups are. The only 50-50 is the mirror and a 70-30 match-up which is basically a hard counter in MTG is the closest you will find in hearthstone.
Sadly, in this case, Rogue quest is Paper as well as Scissors. To beat it you need to specifically craft a deck for beating the rogue, and no one else. How is that fair to anyone?
Aggro decks beat quest rogue (favored vs any rogue) and have chance vs other matchs.
While the deck might be frustrating to play against, claims regarding the power level of the Rogue quest appear to be losing traction.
I would agree with you here that the statistics back you up in that observation and that it shows that Cavern Rogue has significant weaknesses that can be exploited. In the Who agrees that we probably have the healthiest meta yet? thread it was pointed out that Cavern Rogue belongs to the first order optimal strategy category of deck archetypes, which is any accessible deck that is easy to learn and can give you results but which can be easily countered by players and decks of a higher skill level.
Sadly, in this case, Rogue quest is Paper as well as Scissors. To beat it you need to specifically craft a deck for beating the rogue, and no one else. How is that fair to anyone?
Aggro decks beat quest rogue (favored vs any rogue) and have chance vs other matchs.
Yup, Aggro is favored against Rogue in general, which is favored against control. Each archetype has a chance to beat the others with enough skill and meta knowledge and I believe as time passes more and more people will understand what Cavern Rogue's weaknesses are, such as this next forum user:
I change my stance on the whole quest rogue please play it people because it is so easy to beat you get a free turn 1 and then whilst there bouncing like a clown at a kids party my board is full of beasts ready to feast on the face. Heaven
As you have discovered through your personal experience, an aggro deck doesn't have the limitation of having the quest in their opening hand, leaving you more mulligan choices than them, which also allows you to quickly curve out a strong early board presence while they are playing from behind having used their quest as their turn 1 play. Playing Quest Rogue is all about balancing the risk that the early tempo lost can be regained later by the large value swing of the Crystal Core. If you, as an aggro player, can stack up the face damage while they are doing this, your chances of winning can be very favorable. I have had some pretty exciting and epic feeling close games as Quest Rogue against Aggro because more and more people seem to understand this.
So yesterday I played against a rouge who got the quest on turn one using wisps, 2 shadow steps and that ferryman card. After that he played the quest the next turn because he just happened to top deck preparation I lost on turn 4. After this I played many games and counted 3 things every time I played this deck
1 what turn the quest was completed
2 what turn the quest was played
3 what turn I lost the game
the average turn for the quest completion was 2.1 so 2
the average quest played turn was 4.3, although most were on turn 3 there were a bunch of outliers
and the average turn for losing the game was 5.5
I had around a 9% win rate and played with many of the most popular current decks and pirate warrior. None f them really seemed to be a counter what so ever. This quest just needs to be nerfed into the ground immediately
the average turn for the quest completion was 2.1 so 2
the average quest played turn was 4.3
Both of these stats are absolutely incorrect. Suggesting that rogues complete the quest by turn 2 on average is ludacris. Also I find it hard to believe that the average turn the quest was played on was less than it's mana cost...... Yes prep into quest but that would hardly be the average.
Majority of the time it seems the quest is completed around turn 5 and played turn 6. I've seen very quick quests if the draw is right and when the quest is not completed until turn 9 it 10.
You can't use outliers and instances if perfect draw to give statistics.
Quest rogue is so damned wrong. Why the hell blizzard didn't make something like "play 6 cards from a different class". 4 minions take really nothing, or at least play 4 minions that cost 3 or more. Fuck this game. So, just because this awful card exist, everyone has ro play aggro, so that now we have pirate warriorwarrior,huntard, druidard,zoolock, all aiming to kill you by turn 7. Control works vs control, that's it. Those are the only games i enjoy
the average quest played turn was 4.3, although most were on turn 3 there were a bunch of outliers
Lol. I've probably played 50+ games against quest rogue by now, and I think once I saw a turn 3 completion. I have not been keeping stats, but I'd say turn 5-6 the average I see, closer to 5. Today I played a quest rogue who held the quest and didn't even play it until turn 4, though he completed it the next turn.
I think the reason most people hate this quest is that there are a couple cards that make it SO easy to pull off, Igneous Elemental being by far the worst offender, and there's really nothing you can do to stop it.
While I think the quest is a tad too strong atm. I wouldn't like to see Blizzard butcher a unique mechanic to the ground once again like they did with Warsong Commander and Molten Giant.
Haven't looked through the whole thread to see if these have been suggested, but I think either increasing the quest requirement to 5 or 6 minions or making the quest card an unkillable minion (like the Netherportal) so it couldn't be prepped, would be a decent nerf.
This comparison has probably been made a lot, but this deck really reminds me of Grim Patron Warrior.
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There is really nothing more great in this game than defeating Quest Rogues
I rly wonder what they do with the quest .
It can be softcountered by dirty rat sure, aggro bumps on it .
BUT it's a really toxic mechanic wich is also design limitating. If they don't nerf it I wonder how the next expansion's one drops look like.(maybe they don't print any Kappa).
Been playing since Beta. Pirate Warrior was bad. Quest Rogue is worse. I'm uninstalling. Sad I put so much time into this game. If Blizz just would take advantage that their CCG is digital they would have less people quit. Brode showed how easy it was to tweek stats in excel. They need to do monthly tweeks. Let the community help. Stop removing cards from the game by 'nerfing' them into stupidity. Buff cards nobody plays. Why is this such a hard concept?
I'm convinced they have no reasons for these things and that because they are a business they have corporate logic.
I'm voting with my dollar, since that's the only thing they seem to understand.
inb4 L2P kbye noob
freeze mage destroys this deck
Updating a previous post.
For anyone interested in stats, VS, HSReplays and Metastats provide data sets which are updated every few hours - I won't bother linking to each site.
As of this morning, Quest Rogue has the 21st best win-rate on ladder from Ranks 5 through Legend. From Ranks 20 through 6, the deck bounces between the bottom of Tier 2 and the bottom of Tier 3. Miracle Rogue outperforms the deck considerably (often with a +2% win-rate) at nearly every rung on the ladder. While the deck might be frustrating to play against, claims regarding the power level of the Rogue quest appear to be losing traction.
The problem is how one sided the games are either your deck stomps and its 7 minutes of boring going through the motions or you get stomped by it again going through the motions on the chance they draw nothing.
This deck isnt the only issue but is the main issue I have with hearthstone in how polarized the match-ups are. The only 50-50 is the mirror and a 70-30 match-up which is basically a hard counter in MTG is the closest you will find in hearthstone.
So yesterday I played against a rouge who got the quest on turn one using wisps, 2 shadow steps and that ferryman card. After that he played the quest the next turn because he just happened to top deck preparation I lost on turn 4. After this I played many games and counted 3 things every time I played this deck
1 what turn the quest was completed
2 what turn the quest was played
3 what turn I lost the game
the average turn for the quest completion was 2.1 so 2
the average quest played turn was 4.3, although most were on turn 3 there were a bunch of outliers
and the average turn for losing the game was 5.5
I had around a 9% win rate and played with many of the most popular current decks and pirate warrior. None f them really seemed to be a counter what so ever. This quest just needs to be nerfed into the ground immediately
i won agaist a quest rogue after 7 turns he got the reward,with kripp control pally
Quest rogue is so damned wrong. Why the hell blizzard didn't make something like "play 6 cards from a different class". 4 minions take really nothing, or at least play 4 minions that cost 3 or more. Fuck this game. So, just because this awful card exist, everyone has ro play aggro, so that now we have pirate warriorwarrior,huntard, druidard,zoolock, all aiming to kill you by turn 7. Control works vs control, that's it. Those are the only games i enjoy
If they ever do more Quests, a Burgle style quest would be nice for Rogue, though they kinda used that theme already for Mage's quest.
I can't wait for the day when rogue can actually beat aggro decks without playing an aggro deck.
While I think the quest is a tad too strong atm. I wouldn't like to see Blizzard butcher a unique mechanic to the ground once again like they did with Warsong Commander and Molten Giant.
Haven't looked through the whole thread to see if these have been suggested, but I think either increasing the quest requirement to 5 or 6 minions or making the quest card an unkillable minion (like the Netherportal) so it couldn't be prepped, would be a decent nerf.
I think it's simple
make it 5 minions
and make it so that it can't be prepped
still a good deck, just not auto concede anymore