Hearthpwn

Quote from sanchogrande >>

Speaking of the grind, here's some info.

If you have a 55% win rate, on average it will take 117 games to climb from D5 to legend. 

BUT, the standard deviation on that is huge. A decent # of 55% win rate players will get there in 20 games, and about the same number of similarly skilled players will require over 400 games. So luck is the largest determining factor in the grind. Of course, those who get lucky and get there in 20 games will naturally believe that they are extremely skilled.

With a 51% win rate, the average goes up to 220 games, and the standard deviation is more than double.

 

 

 And there it is - its a joke to think there is any skill, like once you're past silver levels.  Its just a casino and grinding with a cancer deck.  Those are the facts.

Quote from NaweG >>

Have made it to Diamond 5 for only the second time since the new Ranking Ladder came out, and am thinking with a couple weeks left this may be my chance to finally make Legend.

I understand that once you pass D5 you no longer get extra stars for win streaks, right? So any suggestions for getting through the slog? Better to go with a fast deck to get you through more games in a day, or a slower deck with a slightly higher win rate? Any other suggestions?

 

 You'll get a bonus from D5 to Legend once you get to legend the first time or if your winrate is very good and you get close to legend. 2 months ago I got to D2 and I just didn't have enough time to get to legend but I only lose 3 games on the way there and I ended up with a 10 stars bonus for the next season.

I used odd DH and well went smooth to legend at 64% win rate from D5 to legend.

Quote from Mackie264 >>

 You'll get a bonus from D5 to Legend once you get to legend the first time or if your winrate is very good and you get close to legend. 2 months ago I got to D2 and I just didn't have enough time to get to legend but I only lose 3 games on the way there and I ended up with a 10 stars bonus for the next season.

 True, you only need to get lucky once (or grind once), and then you're in the club forever.

Sorry Double Post

Quote from NaweG >>

Would be curious to know how many games you had to play from D5 with that deck to get ahead. I'd be concerned about the number of Murloc Shaman and Pirate Warrior decks that can clean your field faster than you can kill theirs. Or maybe the MMR doesn't pull them up as much if you're playing Paladin as opposed to Mage :-)

Thanks for the suggestion.

 

I am not sure exactly how many games I play after D5. It took me about 5 days to get to D5 (9 Bonus Stars), and I got to Legend about the 15th. My goal was to get 10 to 15 games in every day. I only play on mobile so I am not sure what my win rate was

It was rough going for a few days after hitting D5. I messed around with a few different decks before I settled on the Odd Paladin that got me over the top. First I tried with Even Hunter, then Buff Paladin, and finally Odd Paladin. One of the reasons I think Odd Paladin work for me was that I have been playing a version of it on and off for a few years, so I was very familiar with the play style.

Murloc Shaman and Pirate Warriors did not show up much. My biggest problem deck was Stealer of Souls Warlock, so I really lucked out with the ban. I think one of the strengths of the deck is that it can out value some of the faster aggro decks and is faster then many of the midrange and control decks.

Quote from sanchogrande >>

Speaking of the grind, here's some info.

If you have a 55% win rate, on average it will take 117 games to climb from D5 to legend. 

BUT, the standard deviation on that is huge. A decent # of 55% win rate players will get there in 20 games, and about the same number of similarly skilled players will require over 400 games. So luck is the largest determining factor in the grind. Of course, those who get lucky and get there in 20 games will naturally believe that they are extremely skilled.

With a 51% win rate, the average goes up to 220 games, and the standard deviation is more than double.

 

 

 You are wrong.

First of all, you are mixing up the cause and effect. There is no such thing as "55% winrate skilled players". The winrate is the effect of your deck, skill and luck combined, its not the cause.

Secondly, you cant apply standard deviation in a situation when winning is always getting you a star but losing doesnt always make you lose one. A good winstreak can get you to legend faster for sure, but a bad losing streak cant get you below diamond 5. If you cant climb to legend in 400 games from diamond 5 then there is probably no amount of luck that can get you there in 20 games with the same deck and skill.

It's just a simple simulation. None of the numbers in my post do anything other than illustrate two things:

1. Even if you are good at this game, getting from D5 to legend can take a ton of games.

2. Two equally good players can have very different experiences getting from D5 to legend. 

I could have just written those two points, but I think the numbers are illustrative. You can definitely calculate a standard deviation on average number of games required to get to legend. I took into account that you can't fall below D5. 

Finally, I never said "55% winrate skilled players", so you probably shouldn't put that in quotes.

Quote from sanchogrande >>

It's just a simple simulation. None of the numbers in my post do anything other than illustrate two things:

1. Even if you are good at this game, getting from D5 to legend can take a ton of games.

2. Two equally good players can have very different experiences getting from D5 to legend. 

I could have just written those two points, but I think the numbers are illustrative. You can definitely calculate a standard deviation on average number of games required to get to legend. I took into account that you can't fall below D5. 

Finally, I never said "55% winrate skilled players", so you probably shouldn't put that in quotes.

 The amount of sheer variance, polarized matchups and incredible amount of luck really takes skill out of it completely.  Even once you to get to D5 Platinum.  There is NOTHING special at all about the play level of players from D5 versus P5 or even G5.  None.  Its the decks that do the work as you climb, not the players.  How do I know - because thats whats happening right in front of me game after game.  I use a Reno Hunter variant because I dont care to abuse the try-hard decks like most do.  Winning with clearly broken decks doesnt have as much satisfaction as doing it with something off beat. 

The problem is that from D5 down its split between 4-5 brutally ridiculous decks that are soaking with cancer.  Some form of recruit/divine shield Paladin, Secret Mage, Rez priest & Control Warlock.  Then, you'll get a mix of that fucking Druid deck that sets each player to 1 mana crystal , Some face hunter variant & an OTK mage.  Maybe a Kingsbane Rogue.  Of course, my deck has a very high win rate against a few of those but then has like a 0% win rate against others.  Games are over usually when they start.  I know how its going to go or I need to draw 1-2 key cards early to have a chance. Or its over.  Thats the decks & draws deciding games, not players. Cant play cards you dont have in hand.  Cant counter full boards of buffed minions if you dont have the cards to do so.  If your Dirty rat doesnt pull XXXXX card then you lose.  If your discover or their discover does or doesnt pull the right "out" or card then the game ends there.  Those are the facts.   Its just a casino.  Climbing at these ranks is simply just using one of the big 5(or a few select others) busted decks and grinding it out.  You'll luck your way there eventually, even each season. Doesnt mean you're better than anyone else at the game though. If you choose to try and do it without a busted deck its not going to go well. 

Take it slowly and easy because patience is key. Grind ,grind ,grind and grind. It can be frustrating but trust me - being persistent gets you there. Don't change decks too often, even if you lose - take a break and the return to the grind. Always play with a deck tracker which helps a lot. Use maximum of 2-3 decks which you play the best, make changes to your metagame, if you face mages add a secret eater, if you face demon hunters put in some low-cost removal, change your deck in a way to adress your  opponents. Have i told about being patient?

Quote from Saber_L >>

Take it slowly and easy because patience is key. Grind ,grind ,grind and grind. It can be frustrating but trust me - being persistent gets you there. Don't change decks too often, even if you lose - take a break and the return to the grind. Always play with a deck tracker which helps a lot. Use maximum of 2-3 decks which you play the best, make changes to your metagame, if you face mages add a secret eater, if you face demon hunters put in some low-cost removal, change your deck in a way to adress your  opponents. Have i told about being patient?

 That all sounds good but you are at the mercy of the matchups & draw.  Thats how it works.  Changing your deck is BS advice.  That NEVER works. As soon as you tech something in you'll never face whatever you teched for.  Ever.  Changing your deck is the same issue: It doesnt work.  

Got up to D1 and 2 stars, and was thinking today might finally be the day. Queue up and get a Priest, as well as they get the coin. I mulligan hard, but no secrets in my initial cards or after mulligan. But I did have both Kabal Lackey's so figured it wouldn't be too bad. I then went 10 turns, and the only secret I got by then was the Rigged Faire - which was the one secret I didn't want with a hand full of cards needing a secret to activate.

I know it's all in the "random" shuffle of the cards, but that one really hurt :-(

Quote from NaweG >>

Got up to D1 and 2 stars, and was thinking today might finally be the day. Queue up and get a Priest, as well as they get the coin. I mulligan hard, but no secrets in my initial cards or after mulligan. But I did have both Kabal Lackey's so figured it wouldn't be too bad. I then went 10 turns, and the only secret I got by then was the Rigged Faire - which was the one secret I didn't want with a hand full of cards needing a secret to activate.

I know it's all in the "random" shuffle of the cards, but that one really hurt :-(

 

 Today could still very much be the day man, sometimes you just get screwed by RNG. Just don't let the bad luck get you down, it happens to everyone including the best players in the world. You are so close now, I really think you can get there today. If you need any help by all means hit me up. I was top 300 with secret mage as recently as 2 days ago, although I haven't qued at all since so I've definitely fallen down a bit.

Keep playing. That is an outlier game/bad draw. Secret mage is consistent and if you are at D1/D2 an hour of games will get you to legend

Quote from sanchogrande >>

It's just a simple simulation. None of the numbers in my post do anything other than illustrate two things:

1. Even if you are good at this game, getting from D5 to legend can take a ton of games.

2. Two equally good players can have very different experiences getting from D5 to legend. 

I could have just written those two points, but I think the numbers are illustrative. You can definitely calculate a standard deviation on average number of games required to get to legend. I took into account that you can't fall below D5. 

Finally, I never said "55% winrate skilled players", so you probably shouldn't put that in quotes.

 I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.

On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.

Quote from Poghy >>

 I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.

On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.

 Share deck list?

Quote from eskimodavid >>

Quote from Poghy >>

 I agree with your points but disagree with your numbers.

On topic, I have reached legend yesterday with even hunter. I have tried many versions of the deck over the years, both homebrewed and netdecked ones, and its not the first time I had success with it. The current deck is Corbett's version which he used to climb to top 10 legend. I know that a late season legend is not a big deal, but I was playing mostly battlegrounds this month. Next month I will try to reach legend ASAP with the deck to prove that its certainly tier 1 material.

 Share deck list?

 https://hearthstone-decks.net/even-hunter-10-legend-corbettgames/

Just dont complain to support team about freeze and disconnect bugs. First time i did that i was banned from playing and now, maybe thats just my view, but my winrate is about 20%. Have worst possible rng.

And if you ask me did i get any help fixing those bugs, not a single hint what it can be.

And i also have to mention that they were so rude all the time.

Played OTK controll warrior to legend.

Yes, I made my push to Diamond last month and this month with a similar Even Hunter. That list seems to fix some of the problems I was having with it. I got a 12 Win streak with the deck I was running. Main advantage I had was people just did not know how to play against it.