Hearthpwn

Quote from Kyradis »

had a bad run today, only 6 wins.

45g + 60 dust + 15 dust + 15 dust + pack

If thats a bad run I'm never going to have a good one :(

Just finished a warrior run...draft netted me 1 taunt minion (frostwolf grunt) no silences and a bunch of expensive minions. Yay me.

1/3 - 15g (5 + 5 + 5) 10 dust(10) and a pack.

Quote from ZenGalactic »

Quote from Kyradis »

had a bad run today, only 6 wins.

45g + 60 dust + 15 dust + 15 dust + pack

If thats a bad run I'm never going to have a good one :(

Just finished a warrior run...draft netted me 1 taunt minion (frostwolf grunt) no silences and a bunch of expensive minions. Yay me.

1/3 - 15g (5 + 5 + 5) 10 dust(10) and a pack.

I pretty much consider anything 6 and under as a bad run, since the run doesn't pay for the next round.

I can't consider a run where you loose gold as "good", though I guess some people actually care about the packs/dust/etc more than I do, lol.

well so far my worst run has been 5 wins, but yeah, same as TianZi i pretty much consider anything under 7 a fail run, although the gold and dust at least lets me break even cost-wise.  I'm up to 850 gold though so i'm not too worried when i don't hit that mark.

did another 7 win run today: 75g + 75g + 35g + 5g + Pack

5 wins

15G + 5G + 25 D + 45 D + pack

another 7 win this morning, this one was depressing, went 7-0 and then lost next 3

75g + 75g + 40g + 5 dust + pack

only 5 wins this round :(

20g + 25 dust + 10 dust + Gold Lightning Bolt + pack

I did good today! By my standards...

7 wins with mage!

75g + 75g + 45g + 5 arcane dust(ha) + 1 pack

Here is what I got for my 6 wins:

Just as a comment, you should all post the contents of each box, not sum up everything. This is really important if we wanna try to model the probabilities.

Just as an example of a quick analysis with current data:

Up to 6 wins it seems we have a pack, +4 random rolls (there are a few only gold and only dust)

7 win it seems: a pack, 2 gold rolls for 75G, +2 random

8 wins: a pack, 2 gold rolls for 75G+, +2 random

9 wins: a pack, 1 gold roll for 150G, +3 random

Are the 7 and 9 wins gold rolls fixed at 75 and 150 or they have a small probability of rolling higher? And it seems each crate roll independent for amount of gold and dust so having the value of each helps.

i got another 9-win last night

150g + 50g + 55g + 2 packs

Quote from gantonaci»

Just as a comment, you should all post the contents of each box, not sum up everything. This is really important if we wanna try to model the probabilities.

I did make the spreadsheet with gold and dust apart, but i could not find a better relation than what i said before:

"Couldn't find a connection between gold and dust but it appears that you get proportionally more gold as the number of wins grows up (until 4 wins you get in average the same amount of gold and dust, after that, you get more gold)".

Maybe with more data or more skillful look into it we may get it.

Help would be appreciated while analyzing the data, do you want to volunteer?

[]'s

Since you asked nicely. ;-)

I've done from 6 wins and up only, for now.

Edit: Included all wins. I've done a small summary at the first sheet.

A few assumptions:

Crates first roll to see if they contain gold, arcane dust, golden card or pack. After that the amount of gold or dust of each crate is rolled independently.

It may be that first crates roll for crate of little gold, crate of lots of gold, etc. and then when rolling for the amount these different crates would have different probabilities. However to test this hypothesis we would need much more data. So, for now, I'm assuming a simpler model.

For 7 wins, 2 crates will always contain 75G. The other 2 are random. For 8 wins 2 crates will always contain 75G+ and the other 2 are random. For 9 wins 1 crate will always contain 150G and the other 3 are random.

I'm assuming we can get more than 1 golden card or more than 2 packs. Since probabilities are really small we will not be sure of this for a long time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgFueuFKAvS8dHd0Z3c1MzFOMktBRTdRTzBhc09BS2c&usp=sharing

Oh, nice work.

We've found a born talent. :-)

4 wins

35d + 15d + 10d + 5d + pack

4 wins

40g + 15g + 10g + 5g + pack

2 wins

15g + 5g + 10d + 5d + pack

Night of arenas

5 wins

25g + 15g + 15d + Golden common + pack

4 wins

50g + 10g + 10d + 5d + pack

8 wins(so close ;_;)

80g + 80g + 40g + 50d + pack

5 wins

10g + 50d + 30d + 25d + pack

8 wins (DAMN YOU wzp)

80g + 80g + 70g + 45g + pack

7 wins

75g + 75g + 5g + 55d + pack

5 wins

30g + 5g + 30d + 30d + pack

8 wins, turn 1 shieldbearer turn 2 pintsized summoner OP.

85g + 80g + 40g + 45d + pack