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As Beta is live right now, let's collect info on the rewards.
Arena costs $2 or 150 gold.
If you get 7 wins, you get the money you invested back.
For reference, if you want to know the odds estimates for getting cards, check it here:
cards-rarity-chances-on-packs
CONCLUSIONS
EDIT: It may be out of date, as we had patches. The spreadsheet includes data from before the patch.
Spreadsheet. (with Chart)
2 packs: We had 2 pack rewards 3 times, only in 9 win runs, out of 15 times. So, we had a 1/5 chance of getting 2 packs when winning 9 times. But it doesn't seem to be an advantage, as you lose about 100 in gold and/or dust.
Golden common: We had golden common card reward in 6 opportunities out of 63 times. Looks like it may happen in all victory scenarios. It gives us around 10% chance of getting it each Arena run, or 2% for each prize (that is just the same for packs, 2% for each card).
Couldn't find a connection between gold and dust but it appears that you get proportionally more gold as the number of wins grows up (until 4 wins you get in average the same amount of gold and dust, after that, you get more gold).
Conclusions by Gantonaci
gantonaci has made a very nice work on the data (original post #96, page 7). His conclusions next:
Crates first roll to see if they contain gold, arcane dust, golden card or pack. After that the amount of gold or dust of each crate is rolled independently.
It may be that first crates roll for crate of little gold, crate of lots of gold, etc. and then when rolling for the amount these different crates would have different probabilities. However to test this hypothesis we would need much more data. So, for now, I'm assuming a simpler model.
For 7 wins, 2 crates will always contain 75G. The other 2 are random. For 8 wins 2 crates will always contain 75G+ and the other 2 are random. For 9 wins 1 crate will always contain 150G and the other 3 are random.
I'm assuming we can get more than 1 golden card or more than 2 packs. Since probabilities are really small we will not be sure of this for a long time.
Spreadsheet. (with Chart)
Data: updated to post #94
(this won't be updated anymore, as the updates are being done directly into the Spreadsheet)
0 wins: 5 g + 5 g + 5 arc + 5 arc = 10 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (darhoth, tx Erskow)
5 g + 5 g + 10 arc + 5 arc = 10 gold, 15 arcane, 1 pack (fluxflashor, tx)
5 g + 5 g + 10 g + 5 arc = 20 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (ZenGalactic, tx)
1 win: 5 g + 5 g + 5 g = 15 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (Blizz stream)
10 g + 10 g + 5 g = 25 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious)
20 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (tx ZenGalactic)
5 g + 10 g + 5 g + 10 arc = 20 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (darhoth, tx Erskow)
10 g + 5 arc + 5 arc + 5 arc = 10 gold, 15 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
5 g + 5 g + 5 g + 10 arc = 15 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (ZenGalactic, tx)
2 wins: 25 g + 10 g + 5 arc + 5 arc = 35 gold + 10 arcane + 1 pack (Noxious)
25 g + 5 g + 5 g + 10 arc = 35 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (Ezm0d, tx Erscow)
5 g + 10 g + 5 arc + 20 arc = 15 gold, 25 arcane, 1 pack (WarProphet, tx)
20 g + 10 arc + 10 arc + 5 arc = 20 gold, 25 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
5 g + 5 arc + 5 arc + 15 arc = 5 gold, 25 arcane, 1 pack (WarProphet, tx)
3 wins: 25 g + 5 g + 10 g = 40 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious)
5 g + 5 arc + 5 arc + 25 arc = 5 gold, 35 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious, 17/08)
25 arc + 10 arc + 5 arc + 5 arc = 45 arcane, 1 pack (darhoth, tx Erskow)
5 gold, 30 arcane, 1 pack (sanktanglia, tx)
25 g + 5 g + 5 arc + 5 arc = 30 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
10 g + 5 g + 15 arc + 5 arc = 15 gold, 20 arcane, 1 pack (ZenGalactic, tx)
10 g + 30 arc + 10 arc + 5 arc = 10 gold, 45 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
30 g + 5 arc + 5 arc + 5 arc = 30 gold, 15 arcane, 1 pack (gantonaci, tx)
4 wins: 10 g + 5 g + 5 arc = 15 gold, 4 arcane, 1 pack, 1 Golden common (Noxious, tx Flamedruid)
10 g + 30 g + 10 arc + 5 arc = 40 gold, 15 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious)
10 g + 50 arc + 15 arc + 10 arc = 10 gold, 75 arcane, 1 pack (gantonaci, tx)
40 g + 10 arc + 10 arc + 5 arc = 40 gold, 25 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
5 wins: 25 g + 25 g + 5 g + 50 arc = 55 gold, 50 arcane, 1 pack (WarProphet, tx - fixed)
20 g + 15 g + 55 arc + 30 arc = 35 gold, 85 arcane, 1 pack (Fluxflashor, tx)
55 g + 30 arc + 30 arc + 15 arc = 55 gold, 75 arcane, 1 pack (Ezm0d, tx Erskow)
15 g + 55 arc + 25 arc + 5 arc = 15 gold, 85 arcane, 1 pack (darhoth, tx Erskow)
30 arc + 30 arc + 30 arc + 10 arc = 100 arcane, 1 pack (darneous, tx)
25 g + 15 g + 30 arc + 25 arc = 40 gold, 55 arcane, 1 pack (snowhammer, tx)
25 g + 30 g + 10 g + 30 arc = 65 gold, 30 arcane, 1 pack (snowhammer, tx)
15 g + 5 g + 15 arc = 20 gold, 15 arcane, 1 pack, 1 Golden Common (Rabidwhale, tx)
15 g + 5 g + 25 arc + 45 arc = 20 gold, 70 arcane, 1 pack (gantonaci, tx)
20 g + 25 arc + 10 arc = 20 gold, 35 arcane, 1 Golden Common, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
6 wins: 55 g + 50 g + 15 g = 120 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (Shnackaran, tx)
50 g + 15 g + 5 arc = 65 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack, 1 Golden common (darhoth, tx Erskow)
75 gold, 50 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious, tx Knightsavior)
15 g + 5 g + 70 arc + 50 arc = 20 gold, 120 arcane, 1 pack (Redbeastmage, tx)
50 g + 5 g+ 15 g + 60 arc = 70 gold, 60 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
45 g + 35 g + 15 g + 5 arc = 95 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
15 g + 35 g + 70 g + 10 arc = 120 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack (Redbeastmage, tx)
45 g + 15 g + 5 g + 40 arc = 65 gold, 40 arcane, 1 pack (ZenGalactic, tx)
45 g + 60 arc + 15 arc + 15 arc = 45 gold, 90 arcane, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
35 g + 10 g + 50 arc + 5 arc = 45 gold, 55 arcane, 1 pack (NitroKoS, tx)
7 wins: 5 g + 75 g + 75 g = 155 gold, 1 pack, 1 Golden common (RoyInverse, tx)
75 g + 75 g + 50 g + 5 arc = 200 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (RoyInverse, tx)
75 g + 75 g + 10 arc = 150 gold, 10 arcane, 1 pack, 1 Golden Common (Noxious)
75 g + 75 g + 35 g + 5 g = 190 gold, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
75 g + 75 g + 40 g + 5 arcane = 190 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
75 g + 75 g + 45 g + 5 arc = 195 gold, 5 arcane, 1 pack (ZenGalactic, tx)
8 wins: 90 g + 80 g + 40 g = 210 gold, 60 arcane, 1 pack (darneous, tx)
85 g + 75 g + 40 arc + 50 arc = 160 gold, 90 arc, 1 pack (snowhammer, tx)
90 g + 75 g + 50 g + 50 g = 265 gold, 1 pack (Kripp, tx Dpsdoug)
100 g + 75 g + 50 g + 50 arc = 275 gold, 50 arcane, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
100 g + 80 g + 65 g + 45 g = 290 gold, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
9 wins: 150 g + 80 g + 65 g = 295 gold, 35 arcane, 1 pack (Ezm0d. - tx Erskow)
95 arc + 60 arc + 55 arc = 150 gold, 210 arcane, 1 pack (Ezm0d. - tx Erskow)
150 g + 50 g + 95 arc + 55 arc = 200 gold, 150 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious)
150 g + 50 g + 50 g + 90 arc = 250 gold, 90 arcane, 1 pack (Shnackaran, tx)
150 g + 30 g + 55 arc + 95 arc = 180 gold, 150 arcane, 1 pack (Jotto, tx Nirva)
150 g + 55 arc + 105 arc = 150 gold, 160 arcane, 1 Golden Common, 1 pack (WarProphet, tx)
150 g + 50 g + 40 arc = 200 gold, 40 arcane, 2 packs (GiefCat, tx FiendFellow)
150 g + 75 g + 50 arc + 90 arc = 225 gold, 140 arcane, 1 pack (Feenom, tx)
150 g + 100 g + 50 g + 65 arc = 300 gold, 65 arcane. 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
150 g + 40 arc + 40 arc = 150 gold, 80 arcane, 2 packs (Kripp, tx Dpsdoug)
150 g + 50 g + 100 arc + 50 arc = 200 gold, 150 arcane, 1 pack (Kyradis, tx)
150 g + 105 g + 70 g + 35 arc = 325 gold, 35 arcane, 1 pack (fr0d0b0ls0n, tx)
150 g + 40 g + 85 arc + 70 arc = 190 gold, 155 arcane, 1 pack (Noxious)
150 g + 90 arc + 70 arc + 40 arc = 150 gold, 200 arcane, 1 pack (fr0d0b0ls0n, tx)
150 g + 60 g + 65 arc = 210 gold, 65 arcane, 2 packs (Squishei, tx)
150 g + 50 g + 55 g = 255 gold, 2 packs (Kyradis, tx)
FWIW, there are 10 ranks of keys (you have to click the image in the posts to actually see the whole thing; for some reason they cut it to only show 6), and you go up a rank with each win. Anything 8 or higher (7+ wins) will guarantee enough gold to re-buy into another Arena run.
Since card packs cost 100 gold each (client strings), and Blizzard said they changed arena entry to be equal to the price of 3 card packs instead of card packs themselves, it is a reasonable assumption that the Area will cost 300 gold to enter.
Your arena information is a little outdated though.
This is a pretty good post to review to get updated on the arena.
Noxious ended with 3 wins and got 25 gold + 5 gold + 10 gold = 40 gold, 10 arcane and 1 pack.
It is almost as much as they got with 1 victory in the streaming.
So i guess the rewards will be a lot more humble than expected and 7 victories will really just pay you back.
I assume they are betting on the fun of Arena instead of the prizes you would get.
Ezm0d recently ended a 9/2 arena round, got 150,80 and 65 gold. Also 35 dust and a booster.
At least that tells us there is no guaranteed golden cards at 9 wins. (Unless 9/0?)
Well, well. Looks like at max you gain 4 boosters, then.
K, Noxious, 16/07:
2 wins: 25 g + 10 g + 5 arcane + 5 arcane + 1 pack
9 wins: 150 g + 50 g + 95 arcane + 55 arcane + 1 pack
I'm beginning the think 1 pack thing is fixed
Let me change your mind
Yeah, I think so too, and with the arena fee being 150 gold, it's pretty much a no brainer to me, to always play the Arena instead of purchasing packs, as you get back some of the added 50 gold, and it's so much fun.
I went 8-3 this morning with a Druid deck. I received...
1 Card pack, 90 gold, 80 gold, 40 gold, 60 arcane dust.
Reviewing Ezm0d's replay I see that he scored another 9/2 arena.
This time he earned 150 gold, with 95, 60 and 55 arcane dust with a booster pack on top.
Also, for the Blizz stream they went 1/1, they didn't lose all of them.
Have to agree that spending gold for the arena seems like the much more interesting option than using it purely for packs. Aside from possibly the first packs, all my gold will be funneled into the arena.
Darhoth did a 0/3 arena play, he got 5+5 gold and 5+5 dust with a booster. (Gets golden legendary from booster though.)
I didnt get a free arena play for some reason so i'm still saving up gold (ever so slowly) but a friend of mine played, went 1/3, got 20 gold, 5 arcane dust, and a pack of cards.
Definitely think the pack of cards is a constant.
I did a run last night with my first one's free drug deal, err, Arena entry. Went 5-3 and ended up with 1 booster pack, 1 x 50 arcane dust, 2 x 25 and 1 x 5 gold. Oddly it took a long time for the dust to show up in my collection. The booster was the third one I'd opened, and while the first two contained only the standard 4 commons and 1 rare, the pack I got from the arena contained 2 commons (Questing Adventurer and Wrath), 2 rares (Divine Favor and Nourish), and an epic (Sea Giant).
Ended the day with 340 gold so I'll be making another Arena run soon. It's either spend 100g on a booster or spend 50g more for a booster and an arena run.
Second round not as good, 2-3 with a terrible deck. 1 booster, 1 x 5 and 1 x 10 gold, 1 x 5 and 1 x 20 arcane dust. Also in the tally above it should be a total of 55 gold, 50 dust, and a booster pack for my 5 win round
0 Wins
Damn that Rogue deck was awful.
For a 2 win arena Ezm0d got 25+5+5 gold, 10 dust and 1 pack.
ok WarProphet, fixed.
Tx for everyone that is contributing.
Soon we can have a precise estimate.
5 Wins
http://i.imgur.com/Opqtw4y.jpg
Intresting so you gather 150 coins in order to *force* urself in Arnea for the better loots. Hmm hope they will add tournaments at some point :)