How is it even possible that in 23 Arena runs i have never been offered Demon Hunter once? Isn't that like sub 1% odds? Am almost starting to think am bugged or something.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice. Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice. Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug.
I didnt proof any bug because there is a chance that OP is just unlucky.
But when it comes to calculate the odds I am right. Maybe you are not familiar with the study of probalibity but chaining events like this results a probability that I have mentioned. So its very unlikely but it could happen.
BTW you can chain the odds of winning the lottery but its so low that on the long run it doesnt matter.
about math Poghy is right.This is distribution of Bernoulli of returned ball which is (p+q)^n where p and q are the probability to extract or not extract the right ball.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
Thank you for the math on this, i figured the odds of not getting offered a class in 23 runs was sub 1% odds.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice. Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug.
The chance of a penny flip coming up heads is (discounting "edge" results) 50%. The chance of nickel flip coming up heads is 50%. The chance of flipping a nickel and a penny and both coming up heads is 25%.
The chance of being offered a particular class during your first Arena run this month is 30%. Not 10%. The chance your second Arena run this month is also 30%. The chance of not getting that class for 23 Arena runs in a row, to two significant digits, is 0.027%.
You do have a better chance of winning the lottery buying five tickets than if you buy only one.
How is it even possible that in 23 Arena runs i have never been offered Demon Hunter once? Isn't that like sub 1% odds? Am almost starting to think am bugged or something.
Variance, you need a bigger sample size.
Do they claim even odds on the heroes? If so, the odds of not being offered DH in 23 runs is basically 0.
Every run is a so called independent event, which means that it is not influenced by the run before. The odds of getting Dh in the first run is 10% and it’s 10% in run number hundred even if you didn’t get dh in run 1 to 99
Yeah, well its not how math works. The chance to NOT get DH is 70%. The chance to not get DH in 23 runs is 0.7^23 so its a 0.027% chance.
The rolls are independant but when you look at the 23 run sample size, they are not.
Its either just very bad luck, or OP should contact the devs on the official forums because he might have a bug.
The percentage doesn’t matter, yeah you are right about 70%.forgot about the 3 class choice. Following your logic, my odds of winning lottery would increase with every time I play lottery but they don’t. The chance to get DH in the first run is 70%, in the second it’s 70% and in number 100 it’s 70% no matter how often you got it before. It seems unlikely to not get dh in run 100, but the chance is still 70% to not get it. The thing you did is how you calculate the odds for the whole chain of events (=for the event of not getting dh 10 times in a row) which does not change the probability to get it at try number 11 (still 70% to not get it). So what you did proof is that op was unlucky, but you didn’t proof any bug.
I didnt proof any bug because there is a chance that OP is just unlucky.
But when it comes to calculate the odds I am right. Maybe you are not familiar with the study of probalibity but chaining events like this results a probability that I have mentioned. So its very unlikely but it could happen.
BTW you can chain the odds of winning the lottery but its so low that on the long run it doesnt matter.
about math Poghy is right.This is distribution of Bernoulli of returned ball which is (p+q)^n where p and q are the probability to extract or not extract the right ball.
Thank you for the math on this, i figured the odds of not getting offered a class in 23 runs was sub 1% odds.
The chance of a penny flip coming up heads is (discounting "edge" results) 50%. The chance of nickel flip coming up heads is 50%. The chance of flipping a nickel and a penny and both coming up heads is 25%.
The chance of being offered a particular class during your first Arena run this month is 30%. Not 10%. The chance your second Arena run this month is also 30%. The chance of not getting that class for 23 Arena runs in a row, to two significant digits, is 0.027%.
You do have a better chance of winning the lottery buying five tickets than if you buy only one.
Who thought Wyrmrest Purifier was a good card to add to arena while there are also hero cards in the current sets pool?
There is a reason why hero cards where initially banned from arena since KotFT.
There is also a reason why class card offering is restricted to a certain percentage.
Tried to give arena a shot, but in this state, it's not worth the time nor the gold.
Nope.