Fresh off a brand new expansion, Witchwood, comes into the picture while removing a couple of sets, Karazhan, Old Gods, and Mean streets are removed from Arena standard.
Patch 11.2 - 6/12 Meta Update - TAVERNS OF TIME
Some general observations:
1) Dragonslayer triggers very frequently - lots of new targets for it.
2) Drafting a bit lighter with value options makes more sense then over valuing larger cards unless you have a lot of AOE to catch up.
3) Be aware of burst potential (you and your opponent), more discover options and general hand options gives you some random combinations.
4) Play around popular cards and cards that have fallen off the grid ex. Cavern Dreamer - 2 mana, 3/2s more important then 2/3s / Kidnapper, Vilespine Slayer, and Sap have reduced occurrence rates.
5) Drafting around Shaman is similar to playing around Paladins previously. Small AOEs, larger HP minions, and playing around turn 6 Fire Elemental is key. The class is slightly different then Paladin since they have a viable control archetype compared to Paladin.
As per Hsreplay the following class tier list appears to be the following:
Tier 1 - Mage, Shaman
After receiving new help from the exclusive cards, Cavern Dreamer and Master of Realities, seems as though Mage and Shaman have separated from the pack, Mage especially is hard to deal with considering they can play both tempo and value in the same deck and synergizes well with the neutral exclusive cards so draft consistency is no longer an issue. Timeway Wanderer is especially hard to deal with in Mage with it's high value spells all reduced by 5. .
Tier 2 - Paladin, Warlock, Hunter, Rogue
Paladin falls off the horse a bit (or should I say turtle?), but is still very competitive. Same story with Rogue, while the new cards have uses, they are not the powerhouse cards of the top classes right now. Hunter rising in win rate has held Rogue down. Cards like Chronoshot give Hunter a new threat for classes looking to stabilize their health behind taunts.
Tier 3 - Warrior, Priest, Druid
It's a bit surprising to see Priest and Druid at the bottom here considering the tempo swing of the strong neutral common Timeway Wanderer. However, I'm guessing the new exclusive cards just haven't been overly impactful for Priest and Druid and so their draft options end up a bit underwhelming. It also doesn't help that multiple classes have received value options so Priest's game plan is a bit weak right now.
Quick predictions: Hunter, Shaman, and Priest all get superb cards in the exclusive set, barring any horribly poor bucketing on Blizzard's part, we might see some movement in their win rates, but these new cards should not hurt their chances.
In terms of meta effect, on a quick glance, I can tell that Dragonslayer will be even more highly valued then it already is. There are a ton of mid sized and large dragons in the exclusive arena set. Also, there are lots of value options (lots of draw minions, lots of draw, lots of buff future draw type cards), so having decks with enough value to sustain your attack will be a must. I don't see a full out "control" meta like the previous KnC meta, but drafting too many small cards will most likely lead to you burning out and succumbing to late game value cards.
Patch 11.1 - Review 5/11/18
An adjustment to the appearance of cards specifically mentioning Paladin was put into place May 8th. The patch aims to lower Paladin's runaway performance while increasing the lesser classes win rates. The biggest gainers for this patch has to be Warlock, Druid and to a lesser extent Priest. Warlock and Druid can do pretty well against Rogue as well, further keeping the top 2 classes in check. The top classes pre patch had most of their premium offerings reduced, while worse classes had them slightly increase. Cards like Despicable Dreadlord, Mind Control. Starfall all see boosts to their picked rates. As of today, the stats across the board seem to be evening out fairly well, however not much movement from the top, the middle and lower classes has been a bit more fluid with Druid and Warlock shuffling into the middle of the win rates. I've updated the tiering below.
Hotfix 11.0.1 - Review 4/22/18
It looks like Blizzard is trying to fix several issues with 1 sweeping change: reduced Rare card occurrences. The greatest benefactor of rare cards is probably Paladin with insane cards like Vinecleaver, Spikeridged Steed, and Aldor Peacekeeper. The reduced rare changes is also likely to address the frequency of Mind Control Tech, and Stonehill Defender which are other strong problem cards as well. With reduced rare offerings, and increased common and below average buckets, it would appear that Blizzard is further adjusting power level of decks and to keep Paladin from running every class over. With that said, the power rankings for each class is RELATIVELY close, outside of Paladin and Rogue at the top, and Hunter at the bottom.
Patch 11.0 - Review 4/12/18
Blizzard continues to update the offering buckets in it's new revamped drafting system. Hit or miss, it's a sign they are working on things and listening to our feedback. With so many old sets removed, the card pool is further diluted causing some interesting things to happen in Arena. Since card pools are limited, the likelihood of drafting the same premium card multiple times increases. We will most likely see cards like Flamestrike, and Spikeridged Steed many times in a single game since they are so premium. Here are some other things that i've noticed:
Mind Control Tech occurrence has increased dramatically about 2x. This could the result of being in a greatly reduced pool, or being in the incorrect bucket.
There is a seriously lack of early one and two drop plays.
Longer value games are happening, possibly due to Echo cards
Less AOE - with a ton of old sets removed, the stronger AOE were also removed.
Most WW cards are in inappropriate buckets
Here is the current tier list with some of my quick comments on each class, statistics are derived from hsreplay.
Tier 1
Paladin
11.0.1 Update- Paladin mostly seems un-phased by an update indirectly targeting their superiority. We still see Spikeridged Steed and Vinecleaver at insane draft rates (although slightly less then before), and the classes win rate are still incredible high compared to the other classes. Paladin's can make use of junkier generic minions with their solid common class cards like Blessing of Kings, and Potion of Heroism. I believe the sheer volume of powerful cards makes the class too adaptable to get toppled by a small hot fix. Notable rares: Spikeridged Steed, Equality, Vinecleaver, Silver Sword, Stonehill Defender, Aldor Peacekeeper, Unidentified Maul
WW release - Right now, this is in a class by itself, much like how Hunter was when KnC was released. With ultra premium cards throughout all of it's curve including the new surprisingly powerful Sound the Bells!, and Silver Sword, the class is running over every class right now. Old staples like Vinecleaver and Spikeridged Steed that just give people nightmares have been seen more often in all Paladin Drafts, likely due to the reduced pools. The class is also helped by Rush minions from WW to help regain the board when they are behind. Don't forget about Tirion Fordring and Sunkeeper Tarim which are knock out closers, Paladin right now is the class to beat.
Rogue
11.0.1 Update- With the softening of Paladin, it looks like Rogue has seized her opportunity to close the gap in win rates. Just like Paladin, Rogue can make due with sub-par decks and run classes over with their powerful common class cards like Sap, Backstab, and Eviscerate. Elven Minstrel appears to the key rare card for Rogue drafts. It's ability to help refill your hand while providing a body is helpful in a more mid ranged meta like this.
WW release - She's back. Sorta. With Paladin on top, Rogue is it's natural counter. The new WW has gave Rogue some new tools which have been performing well such as Cursed Castaway and Blink Fox. The problem with Rogue has always been AOE, and getting low on health due to using the Dagger. With that said, Rogue probably still has plenty of options to keep the board under control, just draft accordingly.
Tier 2
Mage
11.0.1 Update - Not much movement on Mage's position. A small dip in Blizzard and Explosive Runes should make some people happy. Mages are not overly reliant on rare cards, and can carry generally mediocre cards far in a run which should explain their lack of movement. The class also has solid common cards so a boost there isn't the worst thing for them.
WW release - The same old mage has come back, now with a smaller draft pool. So you'll be seeing lots of premium AOE in most mage drafts. Multiple Meteor, Flamestrike and Blizzard will surely wreck your day. Other surprises include more chances to draft burn cards like Fireball and Explosive Runes to take your health down real fast. Book of Specters has performed well for Mage as a refill for the home stretch. With less reliance on RNG in this new Meta, mage has been able to win by brutal force.
Druid
11.0.1 Update - Not much has changed for Druid, but the class has benefited slightly from the patch, mainly through other classes being weakened. Druid still relies on their strong Epic cards like Ultimate Infestation and Ancient of War to stack the wins. Offering boosts on common class cards like Swipe and Druid of the Claw are also welcomed by Druids. Most of their Rare cards are mediocre and can be substituted, so makes sense that the class hasn't been overly hurt by the hot fix.
WW Release - Receiving probably the worse set of cards i've ever seen in any expansion for a set, Druid hasn't been able to get out of the bottom ranks of Arena. The class struggles against wide boards and lacks large single target removal. A strong Druid draft basically must have Ultimate Infestation in order to go far in the win column.
Warlock
11.0.1 Update - This is a class that relies heavily on their rare cards to win games, but I feel the reason why this class hasn't totally fallen off a cliff is because most of the cards do generally the same thing. The class is full of removal and cards like Defile, Shadowflame, Feeding Time and Lesser Amethyst Spellstone can be substituted with one another to fill the gaps during the drafts. The key card is still Despicable Dreadlord which is hard to replace and should be a priority for Warlock to draft.
WW Release - Another class that has struggled recently has been Warlock. I believe the class struggles unless it picks up AOE and Healing together. Right now the top classes are very aggressive with high burst capabilities that constantly pressure throughout the game. Its hard for Warlock to get a footing so that it's hero power can win games. Best card so far not surprisingly for Warlock has been Despicable Dreadlord. Best WW card so far over a meaningful sample size? Curse of Weakness actually. Might be worth a try.
TIER 3
Warrior
11.0.1 Update - The classes strong collection of common weapons and minions like Tar Lord and Ornery Direhorn keep Warrior in the middle of the pack. The reduced rare offerings don't necessarily hurt the class that much, but does reduce the frequency of one of their common win conditions: Lesser Mithril Spellstone.
WW Release -Coming into the meta I expected Warrior to keep up its strong showing from before the rotation. They did slip a bit even with the help of the brand new Woodcutter's Axe and Militia Commander which have ended up being very good cards for Warrior. The draft strategy is still look out for a solid early game weapons, strong AOE or whirlwind effects, and closer cards like Lesser Mithril Spellstone.
Priest
11.0.1 Update - This class is one of the biggest movers since the Hotfix. Most notable rare reduction would be one of their win conditions Free From Amber which still shows up quite a lot in Priests, but appears to be slightly less. While hard to explain the reason for their fall, digging deeper, my guess would be that the class cannot carry poor minion quality and cards deep into a run without their power cards. So having increased below average buckets could be the reason for the drop for Priest.
WW Release - Gone are the days of Dragonfire Potion and Potion of Madness. Losing a big mid-game AOE, and their early game come back card makes Priest a little bit weaker then previously. However, they've developed into a more board centric class gaining value through their hero power as the game progresses. New cards like Nightscale Matriarch and Holy Water have shined so far in win rates from WW. Usual power cards for Priests still include their powerful AOE, cost efficient removal, and their rage inducing steal your stuff cards.
Shaman
11.0.1 Update - Fire Elemental and Hex are notable common cards for Shaman that have great win rates relative to it's other class cards, so a boost here could explain an uptick in win rate. However, Shaman love their AOE cards Lightning Storm and Volcano, which are both rares and should be reduced, so not entirely sure about their recent success (although marginal).
WW Release - Losing the Jade and evolve package give Shaman less ways to steal wins which has likely resulted in a bit of a dip in overall win rate. Another huge loss from the rotation is Maelstrom Portal which use to take care of Divine shields and 1/1 dudes, but now having 1 HP isn't as scary against Shaman. Lightning Storm is still super premium for Shaman appearing is 85% of all Shaman decks so play around this card best you can.
Hunter
11.0.1 Update - Unfortunately for Hunter, it's still in the bottom tier, considerably farther then the other classes. The Hotfix certainly would not have helped them out considering their top class cards are rares. Notables include Savannah Highmane, Eaglehorn Bow and their secrets package along with Lesser Emerald Spellstone. The good news is, they didn't get any worse, and with Rogue match ups popping up a bit more frequently to counter Paladins, Hunter could snatch up a couple more wins on that front.
WW Release - They've done it again. What seemed to be a strong set of cards from WW, has been tempered by the overpowering presence of Paladin. The new WW cards just haven't had much impact actually which is a bit surprising. Some notables: Carrion Drake, Hunting Mastiff and Vilebrood Skitterer have been decent additions. A bit surprising is the win rate performance of Wing Blast which is under performing at the moment compared to the previous 3 mentioned. Either way, none of these cards are even as good as cards from previous sets like Flanking Strike so it's going to be a long arena meta for Hunter unless Blizzard nerfs Paladins + buffs Hunters.
Let me know what you guys think is the top class in the set. Thanks for reading! GL in the Arena!
I know it is too soon for any definitive analysis, but curious which classes people find are performing well in Arena post-WW release. I looked around the forums here and generally online to see if anyone had ranked them into groups of top-performing to weakest, and didn't find anything.
Again, I know it is early, but informally:
So far which classes do you think are strongest from what you've played at this point? I have a Druid, Rogue, Paladin choice at the moment, and I'm going to go with the Pally....
[Edited to add: thanks for moving my post to this thread! The above post answers my question completely.]
I love how new shaman plays, it got so much control tools and value generation to make the playstyle similar to my previous top classes Mage and Priest. Discover cards been fantastic for me.
But yeah, statistics claim that 75% of paladins have a spikeridged steed, that's just stupid. But... you can get a hex to counter that.
Have been liking warrior, interesting that it's so far down - I've had drafts with three of the new axes, multiple 4 mana rush guys, and other rush stuff. Rush is, unsurprisingly, strong. Paladins are rampant, you need to prioritise silences much higher than otherwise. Think warr is much better than Mage, never liked mage drafts because you get a couple of powerhouse spells in the entire draft and a bunch of chaff. Always been the way for me with mage.
I agree, Warrior does feel good and do have some good options from the new expansion. The Frothing Berserker and Warpath combo is really devastating if you have a wide board.
The win rate differences are relatively close between, Mage, Priest, Warrior and Shaman, so take whichever you feel most comfortable with. Personally I prefer Mage just based on familiarity.
I've had some unbelievably bad draft RNG this expansion, so I may have to wait until variance catches up with me, but so far Mage is the only class I've managed to do respectable with. (7.33 on 3 runs) We won't talk about my other classes yet :p I think that the draft is where there's the biggest problems right now. It's just stupid to lose to a deck that got to draft high numbers of premium cards when I get half as many offered. Some of the 'buckets' are completely wrong right now, too, some hilariously so. Blizzard overvalued a lot of witchwood cards, but this will probably self-correct once they see nobody picking them next to the other choices.
Have been liking warrior, interesting that it's so far down - I've had drafts with three of the new axes, multiple 4 mana rush guys, and other rush stuff. Rush is, unsurprisingly, strong. Paladins are rampant, you need to prioritise silences much higher than otherwise. Think warr is much better than Mage, never liked mage drafts because you get a couple of powerhouse spells in the entire draft and a bunch of chaff. Always been the way for me with mage.
I agree, Warrior does feel good and do have some good options from the new expansion. The Frothing Berserker and Warpath combo is really devastating if you have a wide board.
The win rate differences are relatively close between, Mage, Priest, Warrior and Shaman, so take whichever you feel most comfortable with. Personally I prefer Mage just based on familiarity.
Cool, thanks for that. I'm sure I asked last time - which site is the data pulled from? Just curious on exact numbers :)
Hey, great analysis! I was struggling a bit in my first couple of runs but now, after after having read this, I feel like I have a much better understanding of the meta and I managed to get my first 12-win run (with Paladin).
During the few deep runs I've had I have faced mostly Paladins and rogues , a few mages and the odd priest at 7+ wins.
Also, have blizzard removed the arena exclusive cards? I don't think I have even been offered one in my ~10 drafts, nor have any of my opponents played one against me.
Also, have blizzard removed the arena exclusive cards? I don't think I have even been offered one in my ~10 drafts, nor have any of my opponents played one against me.
Yup, they r gone ;-) It was only a limited time event.
Paladin has been on top ever since the Bonemare nerf I feel, Rogue was nerfed a bit in the good card offering rate before that as well IIRC, Rogue was the best before Paladin rose to the top.
I rarely win against Shaman these days and had a nice 7-3 run with Shaman today. Obviously I had a Lich King in the deck but went 3-0 I think without playing one, and when I did it was mainly as a taunt/get a random card before it died. They got tweaked before the arena only cards were added I think as well.
Warrior remains good with all the rush synergy they have.
Good guide, however I disagree slightly with Druid being on the bottom with Warlock and Hunter.
Druid does okay in a tempo meta because a lot of their cards (not from Witchwood) are tempo cards, whether it is a tempo minion or tempo removal. Cards such as Swipe, Lesser Jasper Spellstone, Power of the Wild, Druid of the Claw. Then you got Druid's late game which can be stacked with late game taunts. Your opponent generally do not have enough hard removal to get through them all. Also, you can re-load with efficient card draws (Branching Path is a really good card) if you do get AoEd or you feel like an AoE is coming. Druid I think will always be in the middle of the pack in Witchwood. It punishes new players who have no idea how to play with the class, but it generally has balanced cards with the only OP card being UI, which is a turn 10 play minimum.
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Good guide, however I disagree slightly with Druid being on the bottom with Warlock and Hunter.
Druid does okay in a tempo meta because a lot of their cards (not from Witchwood) are tempo cards, whether it is a tempo minion or tempo removal. Cards such as Swipe, Lesser Jasper Spellstone, Power of the Wild, Druid of the Claw. Then you got Druid's late game which can be stacked with late game taunts. Your opponent generally do not have enough hard removal to get through them all. Also, you can re-load with efficient card draws (Branching Path is a really good card) if you do get AoEd or you feel like an AoE is coming. Druid I think will always be in the middle of the pack in Witchwood. It punishes new players who have no idea how to play with the class, but it generally has balanced cards with the only OP card being UI, which is a turn 10 play minimum.
For sure. I'd say Warlock in the hands of an experienced player is better then being in the bottom 1/3 of the classes for sure. The rankings are pretty general and based off of Hsreplay stats :)
Updated the tier list rankings for hot fix 11.0.1 with some random thoughts about each classes overall performance.
Most notable movement is the fall of Priest which I can only explain by the classes inability to carry drafts with too many poor cards and their reliance on strong rare cards like Free From Amber.
Here are the hotfix notes:
In an upcoming hotfix currently targeted for release on Thursday, April 19 (PDT), we will be making the following changes to the Arena:
• Adjusted the buckets for certain cards so that they appear alongside cards of a similar power level, mostly from The Witchwood and Kobolds and Catacombs.
• Lowered the appearance rate of Rare cards slightly and raised the appearance rate of Basic/Common cards slightly. Epic and Legendary cards should appear at the same rate.
• Very slightly raised the appearance rate of below average cards.
These changes should adjust the overall power level of Arena so that it feels like the choices players are making in their drafting decisions are more meaningful.
Our goal is to continue making improvements to the Arena as needed and communicate these changes to our players as they are implemented.
Surprised that Priest is so bad, it's been my most consistent class in WW. I've only played Paladin twice in 17 runs as I haven't been offered it any other time.
Mind you, per HSReplay stats it's really just Paladin and Rogue in a tier of their own, a load of classes in the middle and Hunter at the bottom of the table. The difference in winrate from Mage in 3rd down to Priest in 8th is less than the difference between Mage and Rogue in 2nd.
Yes, absolutely. The classes generally are pretty close outside Paladin/Rogue and Hunter on the opposite end of the spectrum. A lot of it comes down to level of comfort with the classes as well, so you may just be more experienced with Priest so you can squeeze more wins out of it then an average player.
My personal class tier rankings deviate a bit from HSreplay (generally agree though), but it's better to use statistical analysis over a large data sample then my own personal biases :)
Nerf this fucking paladin already, or let all play only paladin, currently its unfair.
Equality, consecration 80% combo = autowin. what else we got? silver sword? Spikeridge steed, everything they have seems to create a ranked legend deck. i stop arena for now, i never get a paladin and auto lose against them. blizzard better take action, i am on arena strike untill fixed.
Do you guys thinks we should be drafting more pro-actively for synergy? I keep getting stomped by decks with ridiculous synergy that I would just never draft for, as you'd have to commit to it really early in the draft before there's any guarantee it's viable.
Generally I just take the best card for my deck. Synergy while powerful, requires a collection of cards to make it work reliably. For example, if you find yourself as Mage with a couple Elementals mid way through the draft, it might be worthwhile to take a Blazecaller or a Lesser Ruby Spellstone since there are synergies. However, I don't think I would start off my draft with either of these cards if there were a more reliable choice.
Basically you want your main course to be the solid cards and have synergy cards as your "dessert" after your mains are taken care of. My 2 cents.
Do you guys thinks we should be drafting more pro-actively for synergy? I keep getting stomped by decks with ridiculous synergy that I would just never draft for, as you'd have to commit to it really early in the draft before there's any guarantee it's viable.
Generally I just take the best card for my deck. Synergy while powerful, requires a collection of cards to make it work reliably. For example, if you find yourself as Mage with a couple Elementals mid way through the draft, it might be worthwhile to take a Blazecaller or a Lesser Ruby Spellstone since there are synergies. However, I don't think I would start off my draft with either of these cards if there were a more reliable choice.
Basically you want your main course to be the solid cards and have synergy cards as your "dessert" after your mains are taken care of. My 2 cents.
Yeah that's the approach I've learned over the years as well, but it just seems like all the changes to the format lately have really pushed synergy so maybe we need to reconsider how viable it is.
That is definitely true, but you will need quite a large sample size, to determine what card buckets and how often does your preferred class get offered. If you can spot a pattern, then you can try and aim for certain synergies with a relative certainty (RNG can still mess things up, but less likely). But like i said, this is not something you can document with a few arena runs, i guess you could study HA's decks, where ppl post draft choices, that could make things easier, but without a relatively big sample size, you will be just guessing.
And on top of that, changes r being made in the drafting process in a relatively small time frames, which is good, but kinda disrupts this entire process completely.
So what Boozor is saying is basically a golden rule that should work always, but yes, there could be a better way to do it or rather, we could draft with a calculated risk, that would have a decent potential to yield more synergistic decks. At least for some classes anyway.
Fresh off a brand new expansion, Witchwood, comes into the picture while removing a couple of sets, Karazhan, Old Gods, and Mean streets are removed from Arena standard.
Patch 11.2 - 6/12 Meta Update - TAVERNS OF TIME
Some general observations:
1) Dragonslayer triggers very frequently - lots of new targets for it.
2) Drafting a bit lighter with value options makes more sense then over valuing larger cards unless you have a lot of AOE to catch up.
3) Be aware of burst potential (you and your opponent), more discover options and general hand options gives you some random combinations.
4) Play around popular cards and cards that have fallen off the grid ex. Cavern Dreamer - 2 mana, 3/2s more important then 2/3s / Kidnapper, Vilespine Slayer, and Sap have reduced occurrence rates.
5) Drafting around Shaman is similar to playing around Paladins previously. Small AOEs, larger HP minions, and playing around turn 6 Fire Elemental is key. The class is slightly different then Paladin since they have a viable control archetype compared to Paladin.
As per Hsreplay the following class tier list appears to be the following:
Tier 1 - Mage, Shaman
After receiving new help from the exclusive cards, Cavern Dreamer and Master of Realities, seems as though Mage and Shaman have separated from the pack, Mage especially is hard to deal with considering they can play both tempo and value in the same deck and synergizes well with the neutral exclusive cards so draft consistency is no longer an issue. Timeway Wanderer is especially hard to deal with in Mage with it's high value spells all reduced by 5. .
Tier 2 - Paladin, Warlock, Hunter, Rogue
Paladin falls off the horse a bit (or should I say turtle?), but is still very competitive. Same story with Rogue, while the new cards have uses, they are not the powerhouse cards of the top classes right now. Hunter rising in win rate has held Rogue down. Cards like Chronoshot give Hunter a new threat for classes looking to stabilize their health behind taunts.
Tier 3 - Warrior, Priest, Druid
It's a bit surprising to see Priest and Druid at the bottom here considering the tempo swing of the strong neutral common Timeway Wanderer. However, I'm guessing the new exclusive cards just haven't been overly impactful for Priest and Druid and so their draft options end up a bit underwhelming. It also doesn't help that multiple classes have received value options so Priest's game plan is a bit weak right now.
Patch 11.2 - 6/5/18 - Arena Event starts 6/11-7/2
https://www.hearthpwn.com/news/5586-hearthstone-patch-11-2-taverns-of-time-event-new
Quick predictions: Hunter, Shaman, and Priest all get superb cards in the exclusive set, barring any horribly poor bucketing on Blizzard's part, we might see some movement in their win rates, but these new cards should not hurt their chances.
In terms of meta effect, on a quick glance, I can tell that Dragonslayer will be even more highly valued then it already is. There are a ton of mid sized and large dragons in the exclusive arena set. Also, there are lots of value options (lots of draw minions, lots of draw, lots of buff future draw type cards), so having decks with enough value to sustain your attack will be a must. I don't see a full out "control" meta like the previous KnC meta, but drafting too many small cards will most likely lead to you burning out and succumbing to late game value cards.
Patch 11.1 - Review 5/11/18
An adjustment to the appearance of cards specifically mentioning Paladin was put into place May 8th. The patch aims to lower Paladin's runaway performance while increasing the lesser classes win rates. The biggest gainers for this patch has to be Warlock, Druid and to a lesser extent Priest. Warlock and Druid can do pretty well against Rogue as well, further keeping the top 2 classes in check. The top classes pre patch had most of their premium offerings reduced, while worse classes had them slightly increase. Cards like Despicable Dreadlord, Mind Control. Starfall all see boosts to their picked rates. As of today, the stats across the board seem to be evening out fairly well, however not much movement from the top, the middle and lower classes has been a bit more fluid with Druid and Warlock shuffling into the middle of the win rates. I've updated the tiering below.
Hotfix 11.0.1 - Review 4/22/18
It looks like Blizzard is trying to fix several issues with 1 sweeping change: reduced Rare card occurrences. The greatest benefactor of rare cards is probably Paladin with insane cards like Vinecleaver, Spikeridged Steed, and Aldor Peacekeeper. The reduced rare changes is also likely to address the frequency of Mind Control Tech, and Stonehill Defender which are other strong problem cards as well. With reduced rare offerings, and increased common and below average buckets, it would appear that Blizzard is further adjusting power level of decks and to keep Paladin from running every class over. With that said, the power rankings for each class is RELATIVELY close, outside of Paladin and Rogue at the top, and Hunter at the bottom.
Patch 11.0 - Review 4/12/18
Blizzard continues to update the offering buckets in it's new revamped drafting system. Hit or miss, it's a sign they are working on things and listening to our feedback. With so many old sets removed, the card pool is further diluted causing some interesting things to happen in Arena. Since card pools are limited, the likelihood of drafting the same premium card multiple times increases. We will most likely see cards like Flamestrike, and Spikeridged Steed many times in a single game since they are so premium. Here are some other things that i've noticed:
Here is the current tier list with some of my quick comments on each class, statistics are derived from hsreplay.
Tier 1
Paladin
11.0.1 Update- Paladin mostly seems un-phased by an update indirectly targeting their superiority. We still see Spikeridged Steed and Vinecleaver at insane draft rates (although slightly less then before), and the classes win rate are still incredible high compared to the other classes. Paladin's can make use of junkier generic minions with their solid common class cards like Blessing of Kings, and Potion of Heroism. I believe the sheer volume of powerful cards makes the class too adaptable to get toppled by a small hot fix. Notable rares: Spikeridged Steed, Equality, Vinecleaver, Silver Sword, Stonehill Defender, Aldor Peacekeeper, Unidentified Maul
WW release - Right now, this is in a class by itself, much like how Hunter was when KnC was released. With ultra premium cards throughout all of it's curve including the new surprisingly powerful Sound the Bells!, and Silver Sword, the class is running over every class right now. Old staples like Vinecleaver and Spikeridged Steed that just give people nightmares have been seen more often in all Paladin Drafts, likely due to the reduced pools. The class is also helped by Rush minions from WW to help regain the board when they are behind. Don't forget about Tirion Fordring and Sunkeeper Tarim which are knock out closers, Paladin right now is the class to beat.
Rogue
11.0.1 Update- With the softening of Paladin, it looks like Rogue has seized her opportunity to close the gap in win rates. Just like Paladin, Rogue can make due with sub-par decks and run classes over with their powerful common class cards like Sap, Backstab, and Eviscerate. Elven Minstrel appears to the key rare card for Rogue drafts. It's ability to help refill your hand while providing a body is helpful in a more mid ranged meta like this.
WW release - She's back. Sorta. With Paladin on top, Rogue is it's natural counter. The new WW has gave Rogue some new tools which have been performing well such as Cursed Castaway and Blink Fox. The problem with Rogue has always been AOE, and getting low on health due to using the Dagger. With that said, Rogue probably still has plenty of options to keep the board under control, just draft accordingly.
Tier 2
Mage
11.0.1 Update - Not much movement on Mage's position. A small dip in Blizzard and Explosive Runes should make some people happy. Mages are not overly reliant on rare cards, and can carry generally mediocre cards far in a run which should explain their lack of movement. The class also has solid common cards so a boost there isn't the worst thing for them.
WW release - The same old mage has come back, now with a smaller draft pool. So you'll be seeing lots of premium AOE in most mage drafts. Multiple Meteor, Flamestrike and Blizzard will surely wreck your day. Other surprises include more chances to draft burn cards like Fireball and Explosive Runes to take your health down real fast. Book of Specters has performed well for Mage as a refill for the home stretch. With less reliance on RNG in this new Meta, mage has been able to win by brutal force.
Druid
11.0.1 Update - Not much has changed for Druid, but the class has benefited slightly from the patch, mainly through other classes being weakened. Druid still relies on their strong Epic cards like Ultimate Infestation and Ancient of War to stack the wins. Offering boosts on common class cards like Swipe and Druid of the Claw are also welcomed by Druids. Most of their Rare cards are mediocre and can be substituted, so makes sense that the class hasn't been overly hurt by the hot fix.
WW Release - Receiving probably the worse set of cards i've ever seen in any expansion for a set, Druid hasn't been able to get out of the bottom ranks of Arena. The class struggles against wide boards and lacks large single target removal. A strong Druid draft basically must have Ultimate Infestation in order to go far in the win column.
Warlock
11.0.1 Update - This is a class that relies heavily on their rare cards to win games, but I feel the reason why this class hasn't totally fallen off a cliff is because most of the cards do generally the same thing. The class is full of removal and cards like Defile, Shadowflame, Feeding Time and Lesser Amethyst Spellstone can be substituted with one another to fill the gaps during the drafts. The key card is still Despicable Dreadlord which is hard to replace and should be a priority for Warlock to draft.
WW Release - Another class that has struggled recently has been Warlock. I believe the class struggles unless it picks up AOE and Healing together. Right now the top classes are very aggressive with high burst capabilities that constantly pressure throughout the game. Its hard for Warlock to get a footing so that it's hero power can win games. Best card so far not surprisingly for Warlock has been Despicable Dreadlord. Best WW card so far over a meaningful sample size? Curse of Weakness actually. Might be worth a try.
TIER 3
Warrior
11.0.1 Update - The classes strong collection of common weapons and minions like Tar Lord and Ornery Direhorn keep Warrior in the middle of the pack. The reduced rare offerings don't necessarily hurt the class that much, but does reduce the frequency of one of their common win conditions: Lesser Mithril Spellstone.
WW Release -Coming into the meta I expected Warrior to keep up its strong showing from before the rotation. They did slip a bit even with the help of the brand new Woodcutter's Axe and Militia Commander which have ended up being very good cards for Warrior. The draft strategy is still look out for a solid early game weapons, strong AOE or whirlwind effects, and closer cards like Lesser Mithril Spellstone.
Priest
11.0.1 Update - This class is one of the biggest movers since the Hotfix. Most notable rare reduction would be one of their win conditions Free From Amber which still shows up quite a lot in Priests, but appears to be slightly less. While hard to explain the reason for their fall, digging deeper, my guess would be that the class cannot carry poor minion quality and cards deep into a run without their power cards. So having increased below average buckets could be the reason for the drop for Priest.
WW Release - Gone are the days of Dragonfire Potion and Potion of Madness. Losing a big mid-game AOE, and their early game come back card makes Priest a little bit weaker then previously. However, they've developed into a more board centric class gaining value through their hero power as the game progresses. New cards like Nightscale Matriarch and Holy Water have shined so far in win rates from WW. Usual power cards for Priests still include their powerful AOE, cost efficient removal, and their rage inducing steal your stuff cards.
Shaman
11.0.1 Update - Fire Elemental and Hex are notable common cards for Shaman that have great win rates relative to it's other class cards, so a boost here could explain an uptick in win rate. However, Shaman love their AOE cards Lightning Storm and Volcano, which are both rares and should be reduced, so not entirely sure about their recent success (although marginal).
WW Release - Losing the Jade and evolve package give Shaman less ways to steal wins which has likely resulted in a bit of a dip in overall win rate. Another huge loss from the rotation is Maelstrom Portal which use to take care of Divine shields and 1/1 dudes, but now having 1 HP isn't as scary against Shaman. Lightning Storm is still super premium for Shaman appearing is 85% of all Shaman decks so play around this card best you can.
Hunter
11.0.1 Update - Unfortunately for Hunter, it's still in the bottom tier, considerably farther then the other classes. The Hotfix certainly would not have helped them out considering their top class cards are rares. Notables include Savannah Highmane, Eaglehorn Bow and their secrets package along with Lesser Emerald Spellstone. The good news is, they didn't get any worse, and with Rogue match ups popping up a bit more frequently to counter Paladins, Hunter could snatch up a couple more wins on that front.
WW Release - They've done it again. What seemed to be a strong set of cards from WW, has been tempered by the overpowering presence of Paladin. The new WW cards just haven't had much impact actually which is a bit surprising. Some notables: Carrion Drake, Hunting Mastiff and Vilebrood Skitterer have been decent additions. A bit surprising is the win rate performance of Wing Blast which is under performing at the moment compared to the previous 3 mentioned. Either way, none of these cards are even as good as cards from previous sets like Flanking Strike so it's going to be a long arena meta for Hunter unless Blizzard nerfs Paladins + buffs Hunters.
Let me know what you guys think is the top class in the set. Thanks for reading! GL in the Arena!
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#1 Arena Leader Board Player in North America - August 2018 and April 2020
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I know it is too soon for any definitive analysis, but curious which classes people find are performing well in Arena post-WW release. I looked around the forums here and generally online to see if anyone had ranked them into groups of top-performing to weakest, and didn't find anything.
Again, I know it is early, but informally:
So far which classes do you think are strongest from what you've played at this point? I have a Druid, Rogue, Paladin choice at the moment, and I'm going to go with the Pally....
[Edited to add: thanks for moving my post to this thread! The above post answers my question completely.]
I love how new shaman plays, it got so much control tools and value generation to make the playstyle similar to my previous top classes Mage and Priest. Discover cards been fantastic for me.
But yeah, statistics claim that 75% of paladins have a spikeridged steed, that's just stupid. But... you can get a hex to counter that.
Good recap, didnt actually have time to play myself so this is some good info, thanks! :) Keep it up guys <3
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I've had some unbelievably bad draft RNG this expansion, so I may have to wait until variance catches up with me, but so far Mage is the only class I've managed to do respectable with. (7.33 on 3 runs) We won't talk about my other classes yet :p I think that the draft is where there's the biggest problems right now. It's just stupid to lose to a deck that got to draft high numbers of premium cards when I get half as many offered. Some of the 'buckets' are completely wrong right now, too, some hilariously so. Blizzard overvalued a lot of witchwood cards, but this will probably self-correct once they see nobody picking them next to the other choices.
https://hsreplay.net/
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#1 Arena Leader Board Player in North America - August 2018 and April 2020
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Hey, great analysis! I was struggling a bit in my first couple of runs but now, after after having read this, I feel like I have a much better understanding of the meta and I managed to get my first 12-win run (with Paladin).
During the few deep runs I've had I have faced mostly Paladins and rogues , a few mages and the odd priest at 7+ wins.
Also, have blizzard removed the arena exclusive cards? I don't think I have even been offered one in my ~10 drafts, nor have any of my opponents played one against me.
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Paladin has been on top ever since the Bonemare nerf I feel, Rogue was nerfed a bit in the good card offering rate before that as well IIRC, Rogue was the best before Paladin rose to the top.
I rarely win against Shaman these days and had a nice 7-3 run with Shaman today. Obviously I had a Lich King in the deck but went 3-0 I think without playing one, and when I did it was mainly as a taunt/get a random card before it died. They got tweaked before the arena only cards were added I think as well.
Warrior remains good with all the rush synergy they have.
Priest isn't as good/annoying as it was it seems.
Good guide, however I disagree slightly with Druid being on the bottom with Warlock and Hunter.
Druid does okay in a tempo meta because a lot of their cards (not from Witchwood) are tempo cards, whether it is a tempo minion or tempo removal. Cards such as Swipe, Lesser Jasper Spellstone, Power of the Wild, Druid of the Claw. Then you got Druid's late game which can be stacked with late game taunts. Your opponent generally do not have enough hard removal to get through them all. Also, you can re-load with efficient card draws (Branching Path is a really good card) if you do get AoEd or you feel like an AoE is coming. Druid I think will always be in the middle of the pack in Witchwood. It punishes new players who have no idea how to play with the class, but it generally has balanced cards with the only OP card being UI, which is a turn 10 play minimum.
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Tier 3 - so good you included it twice (in the OP)!
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#1 Arena Leader Board Player in North America - August 2018 and April 2020
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Updated the tier list rankings for hot fix 11.0.1 with some random thoughts about each classes overall performance.
Most notable movement is the fall of Priest which I can only explain by the classes inability to carry drafts with too many poor cards and their reliance on strong rare cards like Free From Amber.
In an upcoming hotfix currently targeted for release on Thursday, April 19 (PDT), we will be making the following changes to the Arena:
• Adjusted the buckets for certain cards so that they appear alongside cards of a similar power level, mostly from The Witchwood and Kobolds and Catacombs.
• Lowered the appearance rate of Rare cards slightly and raised the appearance rate of Basic/Common cards slightly. Epic and Legendary cards should appear at the same rate.
• Very slightly raised the appearance rate of below average cards.
These changes should adjust the overall power level of Arena so that it feels like the choices players are making in their drafting decisions are more meaningful.
Our goal is to continue making improvements to the Arena as needed and communicate these changes to our players as they are implemented.
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#1 Arena Leader Board Player in North America - August 2018 and April 2020
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Mind control tech addressed? But it's not my bday yet :)))
Nerf this fucking paladin already, or let all play only paladin, currently its unfair.
Equality, consecration 80% combo = autowin. what else we got? silver sword? Spikeridge steed, everything they have seems to create a ranked legend deck. i stop arena for now, i never get a paladin and auto lose against them. blizzard better take action, i am on arena strike untill fixed.
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