I was about to pickEmerald Hive Queen to survive early and get in to late game (also I have 3 flame geysers, and don't forget a ping)
Now I am reconsidering....
And now that we are talking about it, why is Tortollan Primalist that high on the list as well? I value a 5-4 as 5 mana. Most of the mage spells are bad, thus getting one for free is not even worth 3 mana. That leaves me with: 5 great/good choices 14 meh choices 12 terrible choices
Heartharena is a flawed app. It always falls into the archetype trap. Once you get enough small minions or large minion, it assigns you into an aggro or attrition deck archetype, for example, and highly recommends small or large minions for you depending on your respective archetype. This is why Blood of The Ancient One's score is upvalued that much here. I hate this system and have been waiting for them to modify it for as long as I can remember using the app.
I would definitely pick Tortollan Primalist in this case because it can actually make a big difference the turn that it's played, especially since you're playing Mage. And since you're wondering, this card is also upvalued because it's a large drop and you have an attrition deck.
Not sure how most of the mage spells are bad i look at the primalist the same as Yogg yes it can be bad if i get the option of 3 direct damage spells because they can nuke my own minions or my own face but cabalist tomb, Flamestrike, Blizzard, Arcane explosion, Arcane intellect, Any secret can only target the enemy board or draw you cards or go on you, I've drawn this card in top deck was alot and a 5/4 body into draw 2 cards or add 3 random mage spells to your hand simply turns the game for you, The card is useless in some classes for sure but i love it in mage and also in hunter just for call of the wild but again the secrets unleash animal companion ect.
tortollan primalist is good because a lot of spells are only castable on your opponent, you cant flamestrike/blizzard your own board, you cant give spells to your opponent with cabalists tome, etc. ofc it can pyroblast your own face, so you have to be careful but thats why discover is a nice mechanism for this card.
"Most of the mage spells r bad" quote of the year, no century. Thanks for the laughs. I guess thats why the mage is the worst arena class :(
Now to answer your question(s): from my experience, arena game slowed quite a lot and plenty of ppl have late game drops that just cannot be answered, since there is very few removal most of the time, so big bodies r better. U still have to use your brain and look at how your deck looks before u autopick it ofc. I dont rly like the Queen personally, its fine, but it screws u as often as wins u the game and in your case u have plenty of early, so i wouldnt go for it. Tortollan Primalist would be my pick, since it is a discover, which kinda negates the random part. U can get AOE, card draw, secret etc, so there is very very little possibility that the card would screw u. It might not give u enough value in the situation ur gonna play it, but it shouldnt like Pyro your face, since you will generally have at least one option that wouldnt/shouldnt screw u. The card is actually pretty decent and can surprise u.