TL;DR: go to Arena Rewards Spreadsheet! (reddit), upvote to help it gain more exposure, and submit your own data using either this link, (google docs form) or just click the link at the bottom left of the spreadsheet (takes you to the same place). Check the second sheet in the main spreadsheet, (bottom of the page) and notice that your data is collected there. Give me some time to collate the data into the main sheet, and run some analysis that I think should be quite interesting.
I'll keep this as brief as possible since I expounded a lot on the reddit post about what my aims are here. What I'm attempting to do, post-wipe, is figure out the expectancy of the rewards from the 5 arena boxes given when you get your key (lose three times). I set up a basic google documents spreadsheet, along with an easy form for input that (for the time being) I will add in by hand to the main spreadsheet, and after a significant amount of entries are collected, I will figure out a few key bits of information.
Below is just some ranting about why I'm trying to do this.
What would be so interesting? Well, I came up with a couple points on reddit already, but the number one thing I'm thinking (also mentioned on reddit) is I want to find out roughly how many wins you would have to win during each arena buy-in to come up with a certain amount of packs, dust, and/or gold that would rival just buying the packs straight up. How this would likely end up will take the data to give me a starting point, but think about this scenario:
25 arenas bought with cash ($50)
20 of those were bad runs (0-3 wins)
3 of those were decent runs (4-7 wins)
2 exceptional runs (8-9 wins)
All of the above compared to 40 packs bought with cash (50$)
At first glance, buying the packs with cash seems to be the better option. What I contend is that considering that the 25 arenas part could be considered "worst case scenario", you're still ending up with 25 guaranteed packs, (likely) 2 extra packs from your 9 wins and some amount of gold/dust. Each pack is some guaranteed amount of dust, and each additional arena buy-in earned through the gold earned from arenas is another guaranteed pack and some amount of gold and dust.
All said and done, I figure I can come up with an ACTUAL worst case scenario, expected average or mean scenario, and *maybe just for kicks*, a best case scenario like 6-9 wins every time. All of which could give some serious insight into how fruitful spending your money on arena games would be compared to buying packs outright.
TL;DR: go to Arena Rewards Spreadsheet! (reddit), upvote to help it gain more exposure, and submit your own data using either this link, (google docs form) or just click the link at the bottom left of the spreadsheet (takes you to the same place). Check the second sheet in the main spreadsheet, (bottom of the page) and notice that your data is collected there. Give me some time to collate the data into the main sheet, and run some analysis that I think should be quite interesting.
I'll keep this as brief as possible since I expounded a lot on the reddit post about what my aims are here. What I'm attempting to do, post-wipe, is figure out the expectancy of the rewards from the 5 arena boxes given when you get your key (lose three times). I set up a basic google documents spreadsheet, along with an easy form for input that (for the time being) I will add in by hand to the main spreadsheet, and after a significant amount of entries are collected, I will figure out a few key bits of information.
Below is just some ranting about why I'm trying to do this.
What would be so interesting? Well, I came up with a couple points on reddit already, but the number one thing I'm thinking (also mentioned on reddit) is I want to find out roughly how many wins you would have to win during each arena buy-in to come up with a certain amount of packs, dust, and/or gold that would rival just buying the packs straight up. How this would likely end up will take the data to give me a starting point, but think about this scenario:
At first glance, buying the packs with cash seems to be the better option. What I contend is that considering that the 25 arenas part could be considered "worst case scenario", you're still ending up with 25 guaranteed packs, (likely) 2 extra packs from your 9 wins and some amount of gold/dust. Each pack is some guaranteed amount of dust, and each additional arena buy-in earned through the gold earned from arenas is another guaranteed pack and some amount of gold and dust.
All said and done, I figure I can come up with an ACTUAL worst case scenario, expected average or mean scenario, and *maybe just for kicks*, a best case scenario like 6-9 wins every time. All of which could give some serious insight into how fruitful spending your money on arena games would be compared to buying packs outright.
I think you could remove 1 box from the form, as there's guaranteed card pack regardless of # of wins.
Piloted Shredder, Knife Juggler, Mad Scientist, Dr. Boom
Need to be removed from this game
I too would be very interested to see the results. The previous thread on here worked out very well because the results were constantly updated.