Hearthpwn

Quote from Caddage »

But something tells me my next run won't offer Priest, Paladin, or Hunter...

... but I could be wrong!

HUNTER RUN 10

http://www.heartharena.com/arena-run/1wdm78

Tried to be aggressive again, but didn't pick up enough 2-drops.

Match 1: Warlock.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/KVjWriLcEUUTfpLjh7Qqoi

Turn 1 Emerald Hive Queen is high tempo at first, but when your opponent doesn't give you an opportunity to kill it off, it's murder. 0-1.

Match 2: Shaman.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/FYYomADpMFonYJbyWQMaG8

When is sacrificing Leokk on a Stubborn Gastropod a good trade? When you can drop an activated Leatherclad Hogleader right behind it. 1-1.

Match 3: Priest.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/eru2jE68fvNCrtQa5EkV9X

Turn 3 Jungle Panther -> Turn 4 Crackling Razormaw -> Lightning Speed -> GG. 2-1.

Match 4: Mage.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/8KrNAcY52bmkmvNZebiZgk

Too many big drops, not enough answers. 2-2.

Match 5: Shaman.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/JnjhmyxdFWiVXFYQfMqph9

Too many taunts. 2-3.

Disappointing, to say the least. I came into my last 2 Hunter runs on an average of 4 wins, but couldn't reach that on either. Such a poor way to finish off a class. Final stats:

# of runs: 10

Overall win %: 55.22%

Best run: 7-3 (1 time)

Worst run: 2-3 (3 times)

Average wins: 3.7/run

Best opponent: Hunter (6-1)

Worst opponent: Druid (1-2) / Paladin (5-10) / Warrior (1-2)

Most common opponent: Paladin (5-10)

Maybe playing that run in the early morning was a mistake. I've noticed I tend to do better around midday to early afternoon, but that may just be confirmation bias. At any rate, the odds are increasing dramatically that I won't get a class I need now that I'm down to only 2 runs remaining: Priest and Paladin. That's a 41.67% chance of NOT getting a class I need. Still in my favor, though... we'll see what happens.

Fortune smiles upon me yet again, as the hero selection for my next run includes none other than Anduin!

PRIEST RUN 10

http://www.heartharena.com/arena-run/c333w9

Didn't really have a plan going into this one, just let the draft take me where it would. And it looks promising. Famous last words?

Match 1: Shaman.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/Yigjw3cAPRPqK5qnADCaBj

Had several opportunities to either push damage or play board control, but I decided to play the long game, since I have some high-value late game trump cards, and it worked... after 20 turns (!). 1-0.

Might be all I have time to play for a while; a bit unusual to get this much play time in, so I'm expecting a dry spell. But the prospects of finishing this damn thing soon (TM) are looking better and better. Not that I want another quick run...

I managed to find time for another match.

Match 2: Mage.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/kNxewpad5GLaFfnbmWRTVe

How do you beat a Mage who gets a Cabalist's Tome from Cabalist's Tome and Meteor from Shimmering Tempest? Well, having 2 Mind Controls and 2 Free From Ambers really helps. 2-0.

Match 3: Priest.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/Axvshjccx9no2cUQCtFioF

Too slow of a start. Maybe should have played the Ooze sooner. 2-1.

Match 4: Warrior.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/bejF6cAb4wq8Vj7n5bFs9n

Turn 4 I had to coin Kabal Songstealer to deal with a Frothing Berserker that was already at 6/4. After that it was simple board control. 3-1.

Match 5: Hunter.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/zRNHGxkvhtuZz5LLPTLvHQ

Opp. had the opportunity late to put me down to 3 health with Giant Sand Worm, but chose board control over pressure. He chose poorly. 4-1.

I really like this deck, even though it can be a bit reactive. Hopefully I can find the time to play while people are still using their free tickets.

Match 6: Rogue.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/WP8EysNK7mbEydxkXX464L

24 minute match, 24 turns long. It basically came down to who played their trump card(s) at the right moment. In this case, I did not. 4-2.

Match 7: Paladin.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/wveiTbHHByqAJ6cLdv3aJA

Needed more early game. 4-3.

And with that, Priest is finished. Easily my best overall class. Final stats:

# of runs: 10

Overall win %: 60.53%

Best run: 9-3 (1 time)

Worst run: 2-3 (2 times)

Average wins: 4.6/run

Best opponent: Druid (1-0)

Worst opponent: Rogue (2-7)

Most common opponent: Mage (15-3)

Wow, Rogues really eat me alive with Priest. Maybe because Priest tends to favor big minions, and Rogue excels at single target removal. Maybe need to spread the board more against Rogues.

One class remaining to finish the challenge: Paladin. I'm amazed I got to this point without having to pick a class I've already closed out, and now the odds are as stacked as they get. I have to admit I'm looking forward to finishing this. Fingers crossed!

So, since my last update, I've gone (5+1)-3 with Rogue, (4+1)-3 with Shaman, and (3+1)-3 with Priest, but finally, on my 4th try, I got my final Paladin run. Here we go!

PALADIN RUN 10

http://www.heartharena.com/arena-run/5tqqop

Board control, board control, board control. Always true for Paladin, but even moreso with this deck. Several awkward picks as well. Nothing to do now but play it!

In honor of this being the final run of the challenge, my plan is to do full-blown descriptive replays for each match. Hard to believe I'm finally at the end; let's go out BIG!

Match 1: Druid.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/mDq3v2FqvvBbEo6gn4FZh7

Going second, I keep Argent Protector and throw back the rest, getting Hydrologist, Bomb Squad, and Twilight Drake. Turn 1 Opp. plays Mistress of Mixtures; I draw Grimestreet Protector, coin the murloc and pick Getaway Kodo. Turn 2 Opp. HPs, trades Mistress for murloc, and hits face to face; I draw and play Mad Bomber. Turn 3 Opp. plays Shattered Sun Cleric (on an empty board, ouch); I draw Scaled Nightmare, play my secret, protect the Bomber with a bubble and pop the bubble to kill the Cleric. Turn 4 Opp. makes my Bomber a 2/3 with Kooky Chemist; I draw Vinecleaver, play my Drake (4/5), and rather than thin my board, I hit face with both Protector and Bomber. Turn 5 Opp. kills my Bomber with Chemist (sending it back to my hand via secret Kodo) and plays Chillwind Yeti; I draw Servant of Kalimos, blow up the Yeti with Bomb Squad, trade Protector for Chemist, and smash face with Drake. Turn 6 Opp. drops Ancient of Blossoms; I'm wondering how to handle it until I draw Blessing of Kings, buff my Drake to 8/9, summon a dude, smash the Ancient, and hit face with the backfiring bomber. Turn 7 Opp. drops Frozen Crusher, then plays Mark of the Lotus to make it 9/9 (desperation?); I draw Truesilver Champion, drop my Grimestreet Protector between my Drake and my dude, pop the shields to kill the Crusher, and hit for another 2 with Squad. Turn 8 Opp. plays Tar Creeper and flappy bird, then HPs just to armor up a bit; I draw Eggnapper, equip Vinecleaver, kill the Creeper with face and dude, and hit face with everything, taking Opp. down to 1 health. Turn 9 Opp. plays Nesting Roc and Evolving Spores, adapts the birds with Liquid Membrane, and concedes. 1-0.

Match 2: Mage.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/CWxsfPEx6DNR4gvv3e6YK4

Going second again, I keep Shattered Sun Cleric and Argent Protector and throw back Grimestreet Protector and Doppelgangster, getting Grimestreet Outfitter and Bomb Squad in exchange. Turn 1 Opp. passes; I'm about to coin the Outfitter when I draw Fire Fly and play it instead. Turn 2 Opp. plays really, really dirty with Dirty Rat, yanking my Outfitter onto the board; I draw Worgen Infiltrator, coin my Cleric to buff the Fly and knock the Rat down to 2/3 with Fly and Outfitter (Fly to 2/1). Turn 3 Opp. pings off my Fly and hits face with Rat; I draw Vinecleaver, drop the Worgen, and punish Opp. for not trading by shielding the Cleric with the Protector for a free kill (keeping Worgen in middle for correct positioning). Turn 4 Opp. plays Eggnapper; I draw Blessing of Kings, use it to buff my Worgen, and go face with everything. Turn 5 Opp. plays Frost Nova and I get a chill at the possible Doomsayer combo... but no, it's a Volatile Elemental, then Opp. pops the Eggnapper on my Worgen; I draw and play Spiked Hogrider. Turn 6 Opp. clears everything but the biker and drops Hired Gun; I draw Grimestreet Protector, blow up the well-dressed mercenary with Bomb Squad, and hit face. Turn 7 Opp. plays Volcanosaur, giving it Massive and Crackling Shield; I draw Hydrologist, drop my Protector between my minions, run Squad into the Massive, Crackling Volcano to pop both shields... and end turn (keeping shield on the biker). Turn 8 Opp. plays ANOTHER Frost Nova (now I'm REALLY nervous about Doomsayer), pings off the Hogrider's shield, and plays Imp Master; I draw Moat Lurker, play the murloc (pick Getaway Kodo), and submerge the Volcanosaur with the Lurker. Turn 9 Opp. plays a secret, plays Frostwolf Warlord... and concedes. 2-0.

Match 3: Priest.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/4j3sqioYMFx7xpZatLb9qf

Going first, I mulligan everything (I almost keep Shattered Sun Cleric, but think better of it) and get Servant of Kalimos, Eggnapper, and Scaled Nightmare. Turn 1 I draw Flesheating Ghoul and pass; Opp. plays Mind Vision (really?). Turn 2 I draw Moat Lurker and summon a dude; Opp. plays The Coin and... Thoughtsteal (REALLY???). Turn 3 I draw Spiked Hogrider and drop the Eggnapper, hitting face with dude; Opp. heals face. Turn 4 I draw Ivory Knight and I consider playing the Ghoul, but I'm wary of Potion of Madness, so I float 2 mana and just summon another dude, hitting face for 4; Opp. drops Infested Tauren (from Thoughtsteal, the lousy thief...). I'm perfectly fine with that: Turn 5 I draw Twilight Drake, summon a dude, play my Ghoul, kill the Zerg-wannabe with Eggnapper (2 deaths), then kill the Slime with my 2 dudes (3 deaths)... which buffs my Ghoul to 7/3 and leaves me with 3 1/1's as well; Opp. plays Psych-o-Tron. Turn 6 I draw Argent Protector, pop Psycho's shield with a Raptor (Ghoul to 8/3), play the Hogrider (which gains charge), kill Psycho with the biker (Ghoul to 9/3), and hit face with the second Raptor, the dude, and Ghoul; Opp. drops Dread Corsair and heals face. Turn 7 I draw Blowgill Sniper and count damage and I think I'm 1 off lethal, so I snipe the Corsair for 1, run both 1/1's into it to kill it, summon a dude, and hit face with biker and Ghoul... and watch my opponent explode. Turns out I miscounted by 1 and had exact lethal (3 minions died to buff the Ghoul to 12 plus 5 from the Hogrider)... which means I accidentally BM'd my opponent when I summoned a dude. I actually felt bad. 3-0.

Off to a great start! Technically I'm 4-0 thanks to Ahune, but for the purposes of this challenge I'm ignoring that free win. This deck is flowing nicely.

...

No, I can't do it.

My apologies to anyone who enjoys reading my descriptive replays, but this is taking way too long, and besides, anyone who checks the heartharena link already knows the outcome. I'm going to give a quick rundown of the rest of the run. Continuing apologies for not following through with full descriptions, but I just want this done.

Match 4: Shaman.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/skTYUpT9juUHy6rjkZPyp7

Going second I almost coin out Mad Bomber after Opp. passes, but I don't. I'm punished over and over the next few turns: Turn 2 Knife Juggler; I drop Bomber, but no joy on killing it. Turn 3 Maelstrom Portal pops a Lightwarden, and of course the knife hits the Bomber; I drop Worgen Infiltrator and summon a dude. Turn 4 ANOTHER Portal clears my board, followed by a totem; I drop a 4/7 Twilight Drake. Turn 5 Sea Giant. So... yeah.... 3-1.

Match 5: Paladin.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/kRT97fFraZw7Q9vM7sFzJ8

Opp. kept playing value cards (A Light in the Darkness, Sword of Justice, Stonehill Defender, Steward of Darkshire), but they don't keep pace with my tempo. Rolled this one. 4-1.

Match 6: Druid.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/kRT97fFraZw7Q9vM7sFzJ8

Innervate into Mire Keeper for ramp gives Opp. a mana advantage without losing tempo, and another Innervate on Turn 4 drops a 5/9 Volcanosaur with windfury in my lap. Then a Venture Co. Mercenary. Then Ultrasaur. Oof. 4-2.

Match 7: Hunter.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/9VhYE3HeTGKS3LnKQi3ATQ

Going first and having Fire Fly to open gives me the initiative, and Opp. never gets a solid footing to take it back. 5-2.

Match 8: Rogue.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/VUjSASRKotfWF9DnvFwh74

Double hand-buffs from Grimestreet Outfitter (thanks to Getaway Kodo from Hydrologist) gives me an extended tempo boost, and then Flesheating Ghoul snowballs into victory. 6-2.

Match 9: Druid.

https://hsreplay.net/replay/MzsVRp5sLN59ztUfvsiP6B

Competitive battle for the board, but my Turn 6 Scaled Nightmare is obliterated by Stampeding Kodo. After that I must have tilted slightly, because I don't play well. Y'Shaarj, Rage Unbound was just the nail in the coffin. 6-3.

Good run. May have missed an opportunity or two, but a solid result. Final stats for Paladin:

# of runs: 10

Overall win %: 57.35%

Best run: 12-2 (1 time)

Worst run: 1-3 (1 time)

Average wins: 3.9/run

Best opponent: Priest (3-0)

Worst opponent: Rogue (2-5)

Most common opponents: Mage & Paladin (9/5 & 9/5)

And with that, it's done! One more post for final overall stats, but I'll have to do that tomorrow. What a ride.

FINAL CHALLENGE STATS

Overall record: 333-268 (55.41%)

Record by Era: LoE 60-57 (51.28%), Old Gods 43-42 (50.59%), Karazhan 44-26 (62.86%), Mean Streets 106-84 (55.79%), Un'Goro (including runs outside the challenge because I'm lazy) 87-56 (60.84%)

Class ranking by average wins:

Priest (4.6), Rogue (4.2), Paladin (3.9), Druid (3.8), Hunter (3.7), Shaman (3.7), Mage (3.3), Warrior (3.1), Warlock (3.0)

Class ranking by best run:

Paladin (12-2), Rogue (12-2), Priest (9-3), Druid (8-3), Hunter (7-3), Mage (7-3), Shaman (7-3), Warlock (6-3), Warrior (6-3)

Bagel eaters (classes which had a 0-3 run):

Mage (1), Rogue (2), Warlock (1)

So the biggest takeaway I get from all that is that I should avoid Warlock and Warrior, but all other classes are at least passably decent for me. But even at that, averaging 3 wins minimum puts me above average with every class, so while I struggle with some classes, I'm not terrible. That's comforting.

And that, my friends, is that. I want to thank everyone who has helped along the way (special shoutouts to @Boozor, @Aeris, @AbusingKel, @TianZi, @ShadowSpectreX, @vodkavlaflip, @Emanon @Zashiki, @Drakbak, and @LuisSuarus for being awesome contributors). I also want to be sure and thank all the lurkers (I know you're out there, I watch the thread view total!) because even if you're not commenting, you're at least interested. Hopefully at some point my ramblings, mistakes, and replays have helped someone else get better as well.

It's been fun, guys. See you in the arena!

Quote from AbusingKel »

Is there any info to glean regarding your win rate improvement? Were the win totals increasing steadily?

It's not clear exactly how much it translates to wins, but my confidence has greatly increased. And I'm off to a roaring start with KFT, averaging over 5 wins per run, though I only have 8 runs so far (still on a limited play schedule, though not having to post results gives me a bit more time). This may seem a bit strange, but I actually have trouble deciding which hero to pick; I've been following the formula so long it throws me off a bit to actually have a choice. :+)

My expectations have risen as well. I used to aim for 3 wins and considered anything above gravy, and 12 was a dream come true. Now I consider 3 wins barely acceptable, and with 3 12-win runs under my belt (got another with paladin), it feels more like a reasonable goal, though obviously difficult.

I'm glad I put myself through it, as it forced me out of my comfort zone and helped me understand each class better. I think my next long-term goal is to hit 12 with every class, but I doubt I'll dedicate another thread to it!

Quote from Caddage >>

I think my next long-term goal is to hit 12 with every class, but I doubt I'll dedicate another thread to it!