Used to hate these, but was always glad they gave you a free ticket for 1 try.
Apparently not this time, what changed?
That one is an arena run with standard decks. 12-win rewards are generally underwhelming.
This one is a heroic brawliseum. 12 wins is 1.1k gold 1.1k dust, 50 packs and 3 golden legendaries. If you think Blizzard will give you a chance to win these for free, you are either delusional or started the game a month ago.
The reward is really underwhelming compared to what you would get for 10 regular arena runs. Even assuming 1 pack = 100 gold, the average payout is 696 gold and the median outcome is 300 gold. Quite a ripoff.
What really pisses me off about these is the reward structure, 50 packs + additionals sounds amazing for 12 wins doesn't it? But if I remember rightly they shaft you on 11 wins with like 12 packs or something? Its bullshit.
Also the fact that it is constructed rather than arena rules means its incredibly luck based as every motherfucker rolls into it with their tier 1 meta decks and its a giant game of rock paper scissors. Match up luckily and you can indeed get that run to 12, but chances are extremely slim. These heroic brawls are just a gold suction con from Blizzard that reward a few luckers at the expense of the many.
This is, again - I've seen this thread NOW, first time - and seems I already Voted. I couldn't even play this by now as I'm on EU and it starts in an hour. Since it's all 1s, I guess some sourpuss did that.
Here is the rewards breakdown based on your wins. Your break-even at 5 wins, with roughly 1000 gold worth of value out of the rewards. (1 Dust is roughly 1 Gold, a pack is 100 Gold)
100 Gold is way more valuable than 100 Dust, more like 260 Dust (since it can buy any Wild pack and give you 4 commons and 1 rare). So your break even is 6 wins, not 5. 5 wins or less occurs more than 50% of the time, so this "Heroic Brawliseum" is a bad bet.
Here is the rewards breakdown based on your wins. Your break-even at 5 wins, with roughly 1000 gold worth of value out of the rewards. (1 Dust is roughly 1 Gold, a pack is 100 Gold)
100 Gold is way more valuable than 100 Dust, more like 260 Dust (since it can buy any Wild pack and give you 4 commons and 1 rare). So your break even is 6 wins, not 5. 5 wins or less occurs more than 50% of the time, so this "Heroic Brawliseum" is a bad bet.
if you dont need more packs and saveing for next xpack this is just rip off no matter what lol you need atlast 9 win for it to be worth anything
The crazy thing for me is that they emphasize how FREE the book heroes is to show that they “care” for how we want more free content, but can’t give us a single free ticket.
The crazy thing for me is that they emphasize how FREE the book heroes is to show that they “care” for how we want more free content, but can’t give us a single free ticket.
tbh book of heroes should never have been made at all its borring as hell... so 1 pack for borring stuff that so easy and the heroes miss play all the time
It is like a lottery. You pay up something, you will almost certainly end up losing, but you have a small chance to win big. Is it worth it mathematically? Even if you are an exceptional player who brings a great deck with the best tech cards possible, I doubt your expected WR will be higher than 60%. I tried to run the math out of curiosity to calculate the expected payoff for an assumed WR of 50% as well as 60%. I assume for simplicity that 1 dust = 1 gold and 1 pack = 100 gold and 1 golden legendary = 1600 dust = 1600 gold although these are not necessarily true for every player.
So if you are expected to win 50% of your games in the Brawliseum here is how far you will get: You will score 0 wins 12.5% of the times, 1 win 18.75%, 2 wins 18.75%, 3 wins 15.63%, 4 wins: 11.72%, 5 wins: 8.2%, 6 wins: 5.47% 7 wins: 3.52%, 8 wins: 2.2%, 9 wins: 1.34%, 10 wins: 0.81%, 11 wins: 0.48%, 12 wins: 0.74% Expected payoff in gold: 722 ---> not worth it
If you are expected to win 60% of your games then: You will score 0 wins 9.6% of the times, 1 win 14.08%, 2 wins 14.98%, 3 wins 13.82%, 4 wins: 11.75%, 5 wins: 9.46%, 6 wins: 7.32% 7 wins: 5.49%, 8 wins: 4.03%, 9 wins: 2.9%, 10 wins: 2.06%, 11 wins: 1.44%, 12 wins: 3.46% Expected payoff in gold: 1247 ---> worth it
This means that the average player (from those who join the Brawliseum, which might be an overall very good player) is expected to lose gold/money by joining. Not a very sweet deal from Blizzard
You summarized it, even if the whole game is. It’s gambling, and some countries hav laws against it. I hope it catches up to this game, the sooner the better.
You are out when you lose 3 right? So 0 wins means you lost all of your first 3 matches: 0.5^3 = 12.5%
By the way, even if the 'expected payoff' assuming a 60% WR above is > 1000 gold, it probably doesn't make it worthwhile. From a risk-aversion point of view, you are still more likely to score 3 wins or less than 4 or more and also the assumptions regarding gold equivalent are probably wrong. 1 gold is worth quite a bit more than 1 dust and 1 pack that is not from an expansion of your choice is generally worth less than 100 gold
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Used to hate these, but was always glad they gave you a free ticket for 1 try.
Apparently not this time, what changed?
Kinda terrible without the free entry.
Hopefully they see their mistake/backlash and offer a free entry in the next days...
Paying the same price that for the Jaina bundle, that was not even great, and needing 5 wins to get to that and without the extra skin...
If we compare to the wild bundle.. you need to get to 9 wins! for the same return!
And only the best will play it. as only an insane or a high elgend palyer would pay 10$ to enter.
That one is an arena run with standard decks. 12-win rewards are generally underwhelming.
This one is a heroic brawliseum. 12 wins is 1.1k gold 1.1k dust, 50 packs and 3 golden legendaries. If you think Blizzard will give you a chance to win these for free, you are either delusional or started the game a month ago.
The reward is really underwhelming compared to what you would get for 10 regular arena runs. Even assuming 1 pack = 100 gold, the average payout is 696 gold and the median outcome is 300 gold. Quite a ripoff.
What really pisses me off about these is the reward structure, 50 packs + additionals sounds amazing for 12 wins doesn't it? But if I remember rightly they shaft you on 11 wins with like 12 packs or something? Its bullshit.
Also the fact that it is constructed rather than arena rules means its incredibly luck based as every motherfucker rolls into it with their tier 1 meta decks and its a giant game of rock paper scissors. Match up luckily and you can indeed get that run to 12, but chances are extremely slim. These heroic brawls are just a gold suction con from Blizzard that reward a few luckers at the expense of the many.
This is, again - I've seen this thread NOW, first time - and seems I already Voted. I couldn't even play this by now as I'm on EU and it starts in an hour. Since it's all 1s, I guess some sourpuss did that.
Mods?
At least its being done at the halfway point of the expansion instead of the end like they used to do
https://outof.cards/hearthstone/1923-the-best-hearthstone-decks-for-the-september-2020-heroic-brawliseum-earn-incredible-rewards
Out of Cards gave me a good laugh:
100 Gold is way more valuable than 100 Dust, more like 260 Dust (since it can buy any Wild pack and give you 4 commons and 1 rare). So your break even is 6 wins, not 5. 5 wins or less occurs more than 50% of the time, so this "Heroic Brawliseum" is a bad bet.
if you dont need more packs and saveing for next xpack this is just rip off no matter what lol you need atlast 9 win for it to be worth anything
1000 gold??? no thx jeff.
The crazy thing for me is that they emphasize how FREE the book heroes is to show that they “care” for how we want more free content, but can’t give us a single free ticket.
tbh book of heroes should never have been made at all its borring as hell... so 1 pack for borring stuff that so easy and the heroes miss play all the time
It is like a lottery. You pay up something, you will almost certainly end up losing, but you have a small chance to win big.
Is it worth it mathematically? Even if you are an exceptional player who brings a great deck with the best tech cards possible, I doubt your expected WR will be higher than 60%. I tried to run the math out of curiosity to calculate the expected payoff for an assumed WR of 50% as well as 60%. I assume for simplicity that 1 dust = 1 gold and 1 pack = 100 gold and 1 golden legendary = 1600 dust = 1600 gold although these are not necessarily true for every player.
So if you are expected to win 50% of your games in the Brawliseum here is how far you will get:
You will score 0 wins 12.5% of the times, 1 win 18.75%, 2 wins 18.75%, 3 wins 15.63%, 4 wins: 11.72%, 5 wins: 8.2%, 6 wins: 5.47%
7 wins: 3.52%, 8 wins: 2.2%, 9 wins: 1.34%, 10 wins: 0.81%, 11 wins: 0.48%, 12 wins: 0.74%
Expected payoff in gold: 722 ---> not worth it
If you are expected to win 60% of your games then:
You will score 0 wins 9.6% of the times, 1 win 14.08%, 2 wins 14.98%, 3 wins 13.82%, 4 wins: 11.75%, 5 wins: 9.46%, 6 wins: 7.32%
7 wins: 5.49%, 8 wins: 4.03%, 9 wins: 2.9%, 10 wins: 2.06%, 11 wins: 1.44%, 12 wins: 3.46%
Expected payoff in gold: 1247 ---> worth it
This means that the average player (from those who join the Brawliseum, which might be an overall very good player) is expected to lose gold/money by joining. Not a very sweet deal from Blizzard
The payout for this is far too top heavy, an the buy-in too high.
This is a gold sink, well design to make more buy expansion bundles instead of buying packs with gold.
Editor of the Heartpwn Legendary Crafting Guide:
https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/card-discussion/205920-legendary-tier-list-crafting-guide
You summarized it, even if the whole game is. It’s gambling, and some countries hav laws against it. I hope it catches up to this game, the sooner the better.
Take a walk on the wild side...
Edit
Editor of the Heartpwn Legendary Crafting Guide:
https://www.hearthpwn.com/forums/hearthstone-general/card-discussion/205920-legendary-tier-list-crafting-guide
You are out when you lose 3 right? So 0 wins means you lost all of your first 3 matches: 0.5^3 = 12.5%
By the way, even if the 'expected payoff' assuming a 60% WR above is > 1000 gold, it probably doesn't make it worthwhile. From a risk-aversion point of view, you are still more likely to score 3 wins or less than 4 or more and also the assumptions regarding gold equivalent are probably wrong. 1 gold is worth quite a bit more than 1 dust and 1 pack that is not from an expansion of your choice is generally worth less than 100 gold
Totally with you. If you have to win 12 and only can lose 2 times, that is a 86% winrate deck...
On the other hand, since the possibility of winning big is so small, the entry price should be much smaller - that would be more appealing to players.