So as it seems, we can already make excel spreadsheets describing how profitable will it be to play brawl if your deck has XX% winrate.
BUT.
What about matchmaking? Will it pair only players with same number of victories? Because if it is, then after a number of wins your winrate will significally drop. If other player got to 10 wins, he must be as strong as you.
huge goldsink simple math lol. if you are a rank 5 and above player u know ur winrate is like 60% 70% is like godmode that means that ur best run is 7-3 if ur not lucky
Ladder winrates do not transfer directly because there is no MMR here beyond your record. 60-70% winrate is nothing special in Arena and won't be here either, depending on how many suckers pony up for the entry fee.
The net profitability will come down to whether the reward tier 'curve' will be in line with (or above) the player experience 'curve'.
The high bar to entry, the constructed nature of the Heroic Brawl, and Blizzard's public statements all seem to discourage casual play, so I suspect the rewards will need to be significantly more generous than arena. Though perhaps the short duration of the brawl will encourage significant inexperienced $$$ players to offset this. (After all that's Blizzard's fundamental business model!)
Though there are other considerations; constructed is far more about counter decks than arena. This will make Heroic Tavern brawl's 'constructed knockout' far more influenced by the matchmaker than arena's 'draft knockout'.
It's a strange contradiction that the matchmaker could be responsible for making a constructed format more RNG-dependent than a draft format.
Ladder winrates do not transfer directly because there is no MMR here beyond your record. 60-70% winrate is nothing special in Arena and won't be here either, depending on how many suckers pony up for the entry fee.
I dont know where this arena comparison comes from. This is basically the opposite of Arena.
Heroic Brawl: You build a deck out of your collection in Standard format.
Arena: You build a deck out of random cards that are given to you out of the entire wild pool (exceptions are banned and C'Thun cards)
Heroic Brawl: There is not much room for experimention inside deck building. Most will simply concentrate of strageties that work and have worked.
Arena: One of the keyfactors for success in arena is to make the best out of the cards that are given to you.No where else you have that much impact on your overall run, before you even start the game. Also sometimes you are not as lucky as others, depending on what you get. That already sorts out players even if they would all be on a similiar skill level.
Heroic Brawl: Due to its heavy entry fee only the ones with a high skill and a big collection might do it, which leads to a higher level of competition, starting from game one. If you loose one, it wont get easier the next match.
Arena: Arena is played throughout by players of all kinds, but foremost it is simply an intresting format that is totally different to ladder and builds up your collection, which attracts new players. That in return means that the skill floor is simply lower due to its wide audience.
In Conclusion: Arena could not be any more different to this.
I agree, I think it would be interesting if they put some kind of twist on it, like a normal tavern brawl - a rule that would effect the brawl (other than being standard) so that at least varying skill levels of deck building and meta prediction on the spot could be tested. In a normal tournament, conquest does sort out good players from bad players, but with this... it's a one guess for meta and than go, and is not nearly appealing as conquest.
But I am good at constructed brawls, so it's no surprise that I would be interested in it running that way.
I'm still building an opinion on the tourney brawl, but I know I won't be participating. I don't have an arena's worth of gold right now, and no desire to lose 9 packs or 5 runs worth in a shark tank.
I'm not the target audience for a game like this, but I understand how spike is going to JAM this brawl with every most possibly broken and oppressive deck. These won't be ANYTHiNG like Arena matches, more like rank 5 constructed and up.
I like it alot that this is happening, because it comes at a time when we can do the math and so can Team 5. Heroic Brawl is a crucible from which data on cards can be compiled into meaningful trends and more evident opportunities for change. I don't assume I'm seeing Arena stats today for no reason. It's a shark tank, and I'd encourage everyone to pay attention to the numbers coming out of it, whether you intend to jump in or not.
Free run would mean approx 5 packs even for a bad player. Look at the math.
It's actually not THAT bad as I thought it is from the first look. Well yeah, it's still gold sink and all, but atleast it's playable if you are really good (like 60%+ WR good) at the game, and first matches shouldn't be that hard given many people will just go in to try without really hoping to win something.
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So, let's summarize the info we have about this tavern brawl. We have rewards described here: http://us.battle.net/hearthstone/en/blog/20324471/introducing-heroic-tavern-brawl-10-17-2016
So as it seems, we can already make excel spreadsheets describing how profitable will it be to play brawl if your deck has XX% winrate.
BUT.
What about matchmaking? Will it pair only players with same number of victories? Because if it is, then after a number of wins your winrate will significally drop. If other player got to 10 wins, he must be as strong as you.
Any info on matchmaking from Blizzard?
EDIT:
Actual math is here!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11hpkXIJ3OXZkh5DviY5tNwykq9ZIbQo5-WWYdWpPIIc/edit?usp=sharing
So you need approx 60-65% winrate to get neutral results (same as buying packs). Anything above leads to profits.
Edit2:
Didn't take golden legendaries into calculation. You get profit in avarage, if you are 60%WR+.
Average number of wins will be 3. For every win, there is a loss, at 3 losses, you are out. So this will be a major goldsink. Dont fall for it.
huge goldsink simple math lol. if you are a rank 5 and above player u know ur winrate is like 60% 70% is like godmode that means that ur best run is 7-3 if ur not lucky
i mean 7-3 is still pretty lucky
Ladder winrates do not transfer directly because there is no MMR here beyond your record. 60-70% winrate is nothing special in Arena and won't be here either, depending on how many suckers pony up for the entry fee.
The net profitability will come down to whether the reward tier 'curve' will be in line with (or above) the player experience 'curve'.
The high bar to entry, the constructed nature of the Heroic Brawl, and Blizzard's public statements all seem to discourage casual play, so I suspect the rewards will need to be significantly more generous than arena. Though perhaps the short duration of the brawl will encourage significant inexperienced $$$ players to offset this. (After all that's Blizzard's fundamental business model!)
Though there are other considerations; constructed is far more about counter decks than arena. This will make Heroic Tavern brawl's 'constructed knockout' far more influenced by the matchmaker than arena's 'draft knockout'.
It's a strange contradiction that the matchmaker could be responsible for making a constructed format more RNG-dependent than a draft format.
Bump this thread with actual math.
I updated OP-post.
I found and fixed miscalcalations, so 60%WR decks actually profit from the games, even taking "lowering winrate higher you get" into account.
I'm still building an opinion on the tourney brawl, but I know I won't be participating. I don't have an arena's worth of gold right now, and no desire to lose 9 packs or 5 runs worth in a shark tank.
I'm not the target audience for a game like this, but I understand how spike is going to JAM this brawl with every most possibly broken and oppressive deck. These won't be ANYTHiNG like Arena matches, more like rank 5 constructed and up.
I like it alot that this is happening, because it comes at a time when we can do the math and so can Team 5. Heroic Brawl is a crucible from which data on cards can be compiled into meaningful trends and more evident opportunities for change. I don't assume I'm seeing Arena stats today for no reason. It's a shark tank, and I'd encourage everyone to pay attention to the numbers coming out of it, whether you intend to jump in or not.
Would be nice to get a free try at it tho...
Puck yo Firates
Free run would mean approx 5 packs even for a bad player. Look at the math.
It's actually not THAT bad as I thought it is from the first look. Well yeah, it's still gold sink and all, but atleast it's playable if you are really good (like 60%+ WR good) at the game, and first matches shouldn't be that hard given many people will just go in to try without really hoping to win something.