So, warrior against rogue (doesn't matter except weapon)
Opponent is rogue with 15 health
I have 9/9 rattlegore as only minion on the board and I have 13 health plus 5 durability bulwark.
He drops a yogg and pyroblast comes up. hits his rogue once, my rattlegore 6 times and me 7 times. What are the odds in that?
old reference, but reminds me of Rosenkrantz and Gildenstern (sp) are dead scene where they're flipping a coin and over and over and the same side keeps coming up. Defies reality after awhile.
The probability of the rogue winning the pyroblast game on that state is
He need to hit your face 7 times before hitting his face 2 times, with effectively (almost always) 3 target on the game.
So it is
Probability : ((number of possibility to hit warrior face/number of total possibility)^(minimum times it has to hit the warrior-maximum times it could hit the rogue))
So..
(1/3)^(7-1) = 1/729 = 0.0014
So it was 0.14% chance to happen.. you deserves a trolden spot.
The board doesnt matter. Specific health also doesnt matter, only "effective health", so 11 health is the same as 20, its 2 effective health.
Your opponent had 2, you had 7, if someone reaches 0 its over so its 8 coinflips, so 256 variations.
There is 1 variation where your opponent doesnt take damage, 8 variations where he only takes 1 damage, and 247 variations where you win the game. So your chance to lose was 3.5%.
Poghy was right, the board doesn't matter. So my calculations was off there. The 1/3 should be changed to 1/2. Also for some reason I didn't sum the total variations... I don't know I think I should drink my coffee first.
Anyway, you still deserves a trolden spot for less than 1% chance to lose a game
It depends on what the question is. If the question was "what were my chances to lose?" then Rattlegore doesn't matter, and for that matter there could have been 14 creatures on the board and the answer is still the same.
If, however, the question is, what are the odds that EXACTLY what happened happens, as in that Rattlegore takes 6 hits in addition to the 7 he took before the opponent took 2, then it's a considerably more complex problem. However, it would also be a somewhat irrelevant problem, as the only practical application of probability to this situation is who is going to win the game.
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Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I appreciate the thoughtfulness in the replies. I think I should have been more specific with my question (my odds to lose or the odds of what happened happening) but both have been answered at a much higher level than I was capable of working out so kudos to all attempts. The 3.5% answer makes me feel like it was unlikely but not within the realm of ridiculous so I shouldn't feel as ripped off as I did. The overall unlikeliness of Rattlegore also being hit so much I think is what magnifies the feeling of "something isn't right here mathematically" beyond instances where a magic missile (or similar effect) hits the same target with many available targets, but definitely ballpark.
Has Blizzard defended their mechanics or have they said that odds have been...flavoured in any way? Just curious really.
All this being said, the opponent must have felt ecstatic :)
It's important to remember that if the odds of an event are "random" (or as close to true random as a computer can simulate), all sorts of weird things are going to happen.
People think that if an aberrant, unlikely event happens, that is evidence of lack of randomness. In point of fact, while a random situation should tend towards the expected probability distribution across thousands and millions of iterations, on any given day, or week, or month . . . weird shit is going to happen. You'll see streaks of losing ten times in a row, you'll see stuff like the OP described. There will be long stretches where the expected values don't jive at all with what you're actually observing.
Such is the nature of short-term randomness.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
For this specific situation was 0,0000209075%, without taking probability of getting pyroblasts in wheel of yogg, or 0,0000010454% if taking 5% chance of getting pyroblasts in wheel of yoggsaron. For chance of winning I will only calculate chance after you got pyroblasts on wheel, which is 3,515625%.
So, warrior against rogue (doesn't matter except weapon)
Opponent is rogue with 15 health
I have 9/9 rattlegore as only minion on the board and I have 13 health plus 5 durability bulwark.
He drops a yogg and pyroblast comes up. hits his rogue once, my rattlegore 6 times and me 7 times. What are the odds in that?
old reference, but reminds me of Rosenkrantz and Gildenstern (sp) are dead scene where they're flipping a coin and over and over and the same side keeps coming up. Defies reality after awhile.
The probability of the rogue winning the pyroblast game on that state is
He need to hit your face 7 times before hitting his face 2 times, with effectively (almost always) 3 target on the game.
So it is
Probability : ((number of possibility to hit warrior face/number of total possibility)^(minimum times it has to hit the warrior-maximum times it could hit the rogue))
So..
(1/3)^(7-1) = 1/729 = 0.0014
So it was 0.14% chance to happen.. you deserves a trolden spot.
The board doesnt matter. Specific health also doesnt matter, only "effective health", so 11 health is the same as 20, its 2 effective health.
Your opponent had 2, you had 7, if someone reaches 0 its over so its 8 coinflips, so 256 variations.
There is 1 variation where your opponent doesnt take damage, 8 variations where he only takes 1 damage, and 247 variations where you win the game. So your chance to lose was 3.5%.
Poghy was right, the board doesn't matter. So my calculations was off there. The 1/3 should be changed to 1/2. Also for some reason I didn't sum the total variations... I don't know I think I should drink my coffee first.
Anyway, you still deserves a trolden spot for less than 1% chance to lose a game
It depends on what the question is. If the question was "what were my chances to lose?" then Rattlegore doesn't matter, and for that matter there could have been 14 creatures on the board and the answer is still the same.
If, however, the question is, what are the odds that EXACTLY what happened happens, as in that Rattlegore takes 6 hits in addition to the 7 he took before the opponent took 2, then it's a considerably more complex problem. However, it would also be a somewhat irrelevant problem, as the only practical application of probability to this situation is who is going to win the game.
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
I appreciate the thoughtfulness in the replies. I think I should have been more specific with my question (my odds to lose or the odds of what happened happening) but both have been answered at a much higher level than I was capable of working out so kudos to all attempts. The 3.5% answer makes me feel like it was unlikely but not within the realm of ridiculous so I shouldn't feel as ripped off as I did. The overall unlikeliness of Rattlegore also being hit so much I think is what magnifies the feeling of "something isn't right here mathematically" beyond instances where a magic missile (or similar effect) hits the same target with many available targets, but definitely ballpark.
Has Blizzard defended their mechanics or have they said that odds have been...flavoured in any way? Just curious really.
All this being said, the opponent must have felt ecstatic :)
It's important to remember that if the odds of an event are "random" (or as close to true random as a computer can simulate), all sorts of weird things are going to happen.
People think that if an aberrant, unlikely event happens, that is evidence of lack of randomness. In point of fact, while a random situation should tend towards the expected probability distribution across thousands and millions of iterations, on any given day, or week, or month . . . weird shit is going to happen. You'll see streaks of losing ten times in a row, you'll see stuff like the OP described. There will be long stretches where the expected values don't jive at all with what you're actually observing.
Such is the nature of short-term randomness.
Helpful Clarification on Forbidden Topics for Hearthstone Forums:
Enjoying Americans winning in the Olympics is forbidden because it is political. A 14 plus page discussion of state-sponsored lawsuits against a multi-national corporation based on harassment, discrimination, and wrongful death allegations is apparently not political enough to raise an issue.
For this specific situation was 0,0000209075%, without taking probability of getting pyroblasts in wheel of yogg, or 0,0000010454% if taking 5% chance of getting pyroblasts in wheel of yoggsaron. For chance of winning I will only calculate chance after you got pyroblasts on wheel, which is 3,515625%.