if theres an epic or legendary that you really want/need for a deck id suggest just crafting it because odds are you wont be opening one any time soon. and never craft commons/rares because you will get many of them from packs so its just wasting dust.
now if you want to be competitive id suggest looking up the current meta and crafting based on that, tier 1-2 decks preferably. but if you look right now every iteration of druid is tier 1, so its a safe bet to craft druid cards for the foreseeable future because they are opressively good and if they happened to get nerf you get a dust refund and you got to experience that deck.
but since you mentioned mage earlier, id really recommend quest mage if youre into playing mage. its a great deck in the meta at the moment and its very fun to play. and honestly its not that expensive either. also ice block is a great card to craft because its used in every mage deck that dosent go face and it has the potential to be nerfed or grandfathered into wild at some point which i believe gets you a full dust refund aswell
^ I made the deck that specific way to work around the matchmaking system. its extremely rare that it will que into hunters shamans or rogues.
That's not at all how the matchmaking system works.
Edit: You're not queueing into hunters, shaman, or rogues because nobody's playing them right now, not because of what you put in your deck. Across all ranks, those are the three lowest-played classes, responsible for only a little under 20% of the players out there, and more like 15% above rank 5.
basically it works like this, the crappier your deck, the more the game tilts in your favor... but there is that balance where if a deck is just to terrible it will never win, regardless.
So far i havent been able to rig the matchmaker to about R8 with random decks but then my luck runs out. My theory that there is no variety at those ranks hence druid druid druid druid warrior warrior mage druid druid druid, and then a receive variety cause i qualify for tilt, but after a short bit of fun, druid druid druid, wrrior mage, priest, druid druid...
I just wish i could reset my own rank throughout the season so i can play with ma cards maaaan lol
^ sure, dude, its not like i track my data or anything...
Distinguishing between random variation and an actual effect would require tens or hundreds of thousands of games played and knowledge about the Hearthstone population's deck choices that nobody but Blizzard has. The fact that you named the three least-played classes by Vicious Syndicate's stats as the ones you don't see very often is a good sign that you're mistaking trends in what classes people are playing as the matchmaking system manipulating you.
Sure there is, or at least something similar. Just track how often each card is used on the ladder (I'm sure they already do that), then assign each deck a score based on the popularity of its cards and do some subtle math to combine that score with rank for determining a suitable match during matchmaking.
I don't believe they actually do that because it would undermine the integrity of the ladder system. I just don't think it would be that hard to pull off. Also if they were gonna implement something like that, casual would be a much better place for it so you don't end up with people learning net-decks vs people testing crazy ideas.
^ sure, dude, its not like i track my data or anything...
Distinguishing between random variation and an actual effect would require tens or hundreds of thousands of games played and knowledge about the Hearthstone population's deck choices that nobody but Blizzard has. The fact that you named the three least-played classes by Vicious Syndicate's stats as the ones you don't see very often is a good sign that you're mistaking trends in what classes people are playing as the matchmaking system manipulating you.
^ play my deck as is: priests, druid, and warriors.... play 20 matches see for yourself
take out my pirate, you will que into none stop palis... do that for 20 matches and record it.
return pirate, remove a grimstreet, and your chance of que into control, mostly priests, will go up... do that for 20 matches and record it.
Another way to test it is to put in a known overpowered card, like Dr. 7, just adding that card alone will wreck your luck like no other. And you can test that theory with any deck under the sun...
--
the fact that you think vicious syndicate and the dozens of other data farming coops track and compare the cards and blizzard themselves do not is beyond me.
in HS sometimes its all about the cards. the quality of your plays means very little. That why i warned the new guy not to spend real money, it wont get you anywhere. itll just limit the variety of your opponents, and make you frustrated when you get robbed.
trust me dude, ive been doing the matchmaker cheats for a loooooong time now... its about the only interesting thing about the game, especially since they trashed the arena...
No, he is right, he may be exaggerating, but there is more to the matchmaker than current rank and stars. If you don't have the formula then picking winners and losers will average out over the population and appear random, but there are undoubtedly 'factors' involved in the match engine.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Free to try and find a game, dealing cards for sorrow, cards for pain.
No, he is right, he may be exaggerating, but there is more to the matchmaker than current rank and stars. If you don't have the formula then picking winners and losers will average out over the population and appear random, but there are undoubtedly 'factors' involved in the match engine.
Here's a Developer Q&A from January of this year, describing how the ranked matchmaking experience works. Listen to the entire discussion, because without it you won't have a clear idea for how candid they're being about the details. The key point is that they describe improving one's deck having a strong impact on ranking, which could not be a side effect of ranked matchmaking if they were artificially fiddling with the matches based on one's deck contents.
They do state that Casual mode adds tweaks on top of MMR to try to improve the experience for new players, and they do so in enough detail that if Ranked were looking at the contents of your deck, there's no way they wouldn't have at least alluded to it.
There's a discussion around 10:50 that talks about possible tweaks to the Ranked mode to make the experience better, where they focus entirely on changes to the ranking system and do not mention tweaks to the matchmaking (as they do in the Casual mode discussion.)
It is possible that since this video was released they've started experimenting with making changes they don't discuss here. But, EVEN IF they were doing that actively (and I'm sure they are looking at or experimenting with changes of some kind) the idea that you could take a string of 20 or 50 games and infer that a single-card change you made has some effect on matchmaking is ridiculous. There's just no way to distinguish between that and random variation. Even with a collection of hundreds of thousands of games and complete information about all the deck lists used across all of them, identifying non-random effects conclusively would be a really hard statistical problem to solve.
Also, as for Blizzard looking at deck contents for matchmaking, the way a skill-based matchmaking system like this works involves making hundreds or thousands of player/player comparisons in a very short period of time to match players for a particular game. Using deck contents in just about any way presents all kinds of implementation problems that make it tricky. Is the deck assessment happening on the client or the matchmaking server? How does it get transmitted from one to the other after pressing the matchmaking button? If it's all client side and they just pass along some kind of scalar "deck rating" to the server for performance's sake, how do they collect metrics to know it's working correctly? These are all problems their developers would need to solve to do this, and solutions wouldn't fit cleanly into Blizzard's existing matchmaking methodology (which, by the way, is almost certainly shared between their games and operated as a central service, making it harder to customize in this way for Hearthstone.)
Edit: TL;DR is that they probably weren't doing anything involving looking at your deck list during matchmaking as recently as January. It's possible they're doing so now, but even if they were, a string of 20 games would be way too few to see it. It's also a little suspicious that the specific classes Stubblestubble was saying he never saw just happen to be the least-played classes on the Ranked ladder anyway.
Edit 2: Also, I realize we may disagree as far as what we believe about this, but thanks, Stubblestubble, for keeping the conversation civil.
Another easy method to confirm the MMR bias, is to watch your opponents rank, for example, if i am on a positive climb i will que into someone a rank or two higher but never lower, and if I am on a losing streak i will que into a lower ranked individual and never higher. if its just 'based on your stars' that shouldnt be the case and it is literally always the case.
also have you ever wondered why the "most oppressive" decks in hearthstone only have a 55% winrate? it just happened that every single deck in the history of the game is near 50%? given the wide variety of player skill, deck formulas, and all the other factors, it truly is mindboggling that 50% is somehow the magic number. its almost like skill doesnt matter, 50% does... :)
but wait let me guess, "its cause of all the data is being collected from legendary ranked games, which includes MMR, skewing to 50%." So before you even suggest it only 2% of hearthstone players ever reach legend, and seeing as how there are millions of active players, im going to preemptively prevent any counters to this argument.
the proof is in the pudding so to speak...
i think the reason you want to resist the information is you think its a personal thing, like i think the game is out to get me, and its not, its relative, its a number assigned to your deck.
also bens triggered face was hilarious at 15 minutes in... i think maybe they arent as candid as you believe that they are or maybe ben brode does not like to be reminded of naxx lmao!
I think its important to realize, what we are discussing are the exploits and oddities that you can bring forth from the matchmaker, rigged or not, bc the oddities are very real. The point Im making is that a F2P player who is new should play the lowest powered deck, that can still achieve a win condition, to avoid tilt until it is unavoidable.
I think we could debate endless why 50% is the magic number and so on and so forth, but im just trying to give him sound advice. I think you should just let him play my zero meta score deck as is, so he doesnt have to worry about queing into random OP craziness, assuming he hasnt already ran for the hills lol!
the worst thing he could possibly do is pull out his wallet and buy dust wads until he can make a jade druid, etc...
also have you ever wondered why the "most oppressive" decks in hearthstone only have a 55% winrate? it just happened that every single deck in the history of the game is near 50%? given the wide variety of player skill, deck formulas, and all the other factors, it truly is mindboggling that 50% is somehow the magic number. its almost like skill doesnt matter, 50% does... :)
I just don't think that's that unlikely an outcome without the idea that there's a hypothetical "deck rating" being applied to all levels of matchmaking. There are a bunch of effects that tend to balance things out without that:
Blizzard's design has leaned toward multiple viable archetypes which tend to be either extremely strong or extremely weak against each other. Thus, if one archetype seems to be dominating (Jade Druid in the first few days of this expansion) a large number of players will gravitate to its obvious counters REALLY FAST, countering its dominance.
Their long development cycle probably allows Team 5 to catch really broken mechanics and card combinations (the ones that would make one archetype truly dominant) before they go out the door in most cases.
While Ranked rating doesn't resemble an MMR system, a matchmaking system that prioritizes same-rank matches above all else will tend to bias results heavily toward 50%. Those who perform better than the current rank (on average) rapidly move up and out, and get matched with a new population, while those who underperform stay where they are or drop. Only a 50% win rate keeps people at the same rank, so ranks will quickly be stratified by performance to get the win rate as close to 50% as possible (though with an overall upward migration driven by rank floors canceling out losses and bonus stars.)
The hsreplay.net people probably could come up with a way to test what you're proposing. It would be great if they would. I'm not saying I know for certain you're wrong, I'm just saying that "change your deck and see what happens over the next 20 games" is a REALLY bad test unless it's such an overwhelming effect that adding blah blah card means you only see hunters, ever, every single time. And, I doubt they're doing something that coarse and unhelpful.
the worst thing he could possibly do is pull out his wallet and buy dust wads until he can make a jade druid, etc...
I agree in general (although I do think that there's some value in spending dust to build one relatively strong deck of some kind just to have the good feedback of some ladder success, preferably an archetype that's shown some long-term viability and isn't dependent on specific cards that are going to age out at the next Standard update.)
^ i know its too shocking to really take in but Im serious about it.
I beg you, try my deck list, its cost nothing, and you will never que a pali, mayyybe once every 50 matches. Take out that single pirate, that one card, even within the same "pool" of players, and you will que none stop pali...
it will only take a few hours of your time and it will drastically change the way you feel about the game. just do it my man, get woke, join the matchmaking resistance :)
EDIT: and some added food for thought if you so choose to experiment, pirate warrior was the first deck ever to use pirates successfully + pali is a savage counter to pirate warrior... ;)
wow thank you guys...all this info has really given me some direction.
@EveningWood i was playing midrange hunter before the expansion to climb ranked. Moved to kft elemental mage which seems to have a good winrate(atleast i am winning alot with it)..loosing only to hunter decks so far. so was thinking of getting ice blocks and glyphs. but ill try the decks that you have shared. I dont mind playing aggressive decks but not face decks and also the decks that rely too much on RNG..anywayz tysm for the info ...has helped a alot.
@Boethion i am getting all dupes in classic and and ungoro packs.thats the reason i asked if i should craft ice block..as this update gives 1 legendary for the first 10 packs of an expansion...i began getting em and got shitty legendaries for each of the older ones... currently investing in kft packs. I'll keep trying though, ty for the info man, helps alot.
@Lysenko Hey i have playable decks for each class that gets me some wins in casuals. got all my heros to 20+. as i said earlier i have been getting all dupes from classic packs . so i stopped buying them and began getting gadgetzan and old gods packs. I do own the karazhan adventure(i do invest a little bit now and then), but i have no idea how and what to invest in to make it worth. anywaz ty for the info.helps alot.
If you like midrange hunter you might want to try Tempo Mage, It's one of the best decks in the meta right now, (maybe even the best). It may have an average slightly lower than druid since it doesn't have the same snowball effect (ie druid is more forgiving), but if played correctly I believe it is at or near Jade druid. The difference is if you make a mistake with Jade Druid you still have a high chance to snowball in the late game due to armor effects, jade ramp, Ultimate infestation.. with Tempo mage, every decision counts, but it also has a good win rate, so it's a great deck to ladder and build skill with. You can replace the Antonidas with another firelands portal, or possibly meteor or flamestrike.
### Mage Deck # Class: Mage # Format: Standard # Year of the Mammoth # # 2x (1) Mana Wyrm # 2x (2) Medivh's Valet # 2x (2) Primordial Glyph # 2x (2) Sorcerer's Apprentice # 2x (2) Frostbolt # 2x (2) Arcanologist # 2x (3) Counterspell # 2x (3) Kirin Tor Mage # 2x (3) Arcane Intellect # 2x (3) Mirror Entity # 2x (4) Fireball # 1x (4) Water Elemental # 1x (6) Meteor # 2x (6) Kabal Crystal Runner # 1x (7) Firelands Portal # 2x (7) Bonemare # 1x (7) Archmage Antonidas # AAECAf0EBIsDuAijtgKWxwINccMBuwKVA6sE5gSWBewF17YCh70CwcECmMQCps4CAA== # # To use this deck, copy it to your clipboard and create a new deck in Hearthstone # Find the deck on https://hsreplay.net/decks/ILlUgLJF36pqDm6t1mT3t/
^ i know its too shocking to really take in but Im serious about it.
I beg you, try my deck list, its cost nothing, and you will never que a pali, mayyybe once every 50 matches. Take out that single pirate, that one card, even within the same "pool" of players, and you will que none stop pali...
it will only take a few hours of your time and it will drastically change the way you feel about the game. just do it my man, get woke, join the matchmaking resistance :)
EDIT: and some added food for thought if you so choose to experiment, pirate warrior was the first deck ever to use pirates successfully + pali is a savage counter to pirate warrior... ;)
the truth is begging to come out :)
I have noticed that if I switch to a non-netdeck my first few games are often against other non-netdecks, then it goes back to "normal" matchmaking... (whatever that may mean)
wow thank you guys...all this info has really given me some direction.
@EveningWood i was playing midrange hunter before the expansion to climb ranked. Moved to kft elemental mage which seems to have a good winrate(atleast i am winning alot with it)..loosing only to hunter decks so far. so was thinking of getting ice blocks and glyphs. but ill try the decks that you have shared. I dont mind playing aggressive decks but not face decks and also the decks that rely too much on RNG..anywayz tysm for the info ...has helped a alot.
@Boethion i am getting all dupes in classic and and ungoro packs.thats the reason i asked if i should craft ice block..as this update gives 1 legendary for the first 10 packs of an expansion...i began getting em and got shitty legendaries for each of the older ones... currently investing in kft packs. I'll keep trying though, ty for the info man, helps alot.
@Lysenko Hey i have playable decks for each class that gets me some wins in casuals. got all my heros to 20+. as i said earlier i have been getting all dupes from classic packs . so i stopped buying them and began getting gadgetzan and old gods packs. I do own the karazhan adventure(i do invest a little bit now and then), but i have no idea how and what to invest in to make it worth. anywaz ty for the info.helps alot.
If you like midrange hunter you might want to try Tempo Mage, It's one of the best decks in the meta right now, (maybe even the best). It may have an average slightly lower than druid since it doesn't have the same snowball effect (ie druid is more forgiving), but if played correctly I believe it is at or near Jade druid. The difference is if you make a mistake with Jade Druid you still have a high chance to snowball in the late game due to armor effects, jade ramp, Ultimate infestation.. with Tempo mage, every decision counts, but it also has a good win rate, so it's a great deck to ladder and build skill with. You can replace the Antonidas with another firelands portal, or possibly meteor or flamestrike.
### Mage Deck # Class: Mage # Format: Standard # Year of the Mammoth # # 2x (1) Mana Wyrm # 2x (2) Medivh's Valet # 2x (2) Primordial Glyph # 2x (2) Sorcerer's Apprentice # 2x (2) Frostbolt # 2x (2) Arcanologist # 2x (3) Counterspell # 2x (3) Kirin Tor Mage # 2x (3) Arcane Intellect # 2x (3) Mirror Entity # 2x (4) Fireball # 1x (4) Water Elemental # 1x (6) Meteor # 2x (6) Kabal Crystal Runner # 1x (7) Firelands Portal # 2x (7) Bonemare # 1x (7) Archmage Antonidas # AAECAf0EBIsDuAijtgKWxwINccMBuwKVA6sE5gSWBewF17YCh70CwcECmMQCps4CAA== # # To use this deck, copy it to your clipboard and create a new deck in Hearthstone # Find the deck on https://hsreplay.net/decks/ILlUgLJF36pqDm6t1mT3t/
Hey thanks for the deck..and info i am actually using the elemnetal deck with frost lich jaina.. As for this deck i am missing a lot of cards in this one and to be honest i am not really into mage.. i am playing jaina cause thats the only deck i have that close to a complete standard deck and also cause its getting me max wins (even more than the mid range hunter) and i love the comebacks after using the kft jaina which is insane.
Thank you everyone for the info about the deck and matchmaking. I didnt get everything but yea did give me some idea. Also i just noticed that i have almost all the common rares and epics for hunter decks, so would you recommend crafting dk rexxar ..is he strong? Thanks guys
if theres an epic or legendary that you really want/need for a deck id suggest just crafting it because odds are you wont be opening one any time soon. and never craft commons/rares because you will get many of them from packs so its just wasting dust.
now if you want to be competitive id suggest looking up the current meta and crafting based on that, tier 1-2 decks preferably. but if you look right now every iteration of druid is tier 1, so its a safe bet to craft druid cards for the foreseeable future because they are opressively good and if they happened to get nerf you get a dust refund and you got to experience that deck.
but since you mentioned mage earlier, id really recommend quest mage if youre into playing mage. its a great deck in the meta at the moment and its very fun to play. and honestly its not that expensive either. also ice block is a great card to craft because its used in every mage deck that dosent go face and it has the potential to be nerfed or grandfathered into wild at some point which i believe gets you a full dust refund aswell
^ actually it is, and if you arent playing top of ladder, there are tons of hilarious techs you can do that make the matchmaker go retarded.
If you can't beat them, join them
basically it works like this, the crappier your deck, the more the game tilts in your favor... but there is that balance where if a deck is just to terrible it will never win, regardless.
So far i havent been able to rig the matchmaker to about R8 with random decks but then my luck runs out. My theory that there is no variety at those ranks hence druid druid druid druid warrior warrior mage druid druid druid, and then a receive variety cause i qualify for tilt, but after a short bit of fun, druid druid druid, wrrior mage, priest, druid druid...
I just wish i could reset my own rank throughout the season so i can play with ma cards maaaan lol
If you can't beat them, join them
There's no good way to build a system that does what you describe. You're imagining things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
^ sure, dude, its not like i track my data or anything...
If you can't beat them, join them
If you can't beat them, join them
Free to try and find a game, dealing cards for sorrow, cards for pain.
^ i watched it and im not impressed.
Another easy method to confirm the MMR bias, is to watch your opponents rank, for example, if i am on a positive climb i will que into someone a rank or two higher but never lower, and if I am on a losing streak i will que into a lower ranked individual and never higher. if its just 'based on your stars' that shouldnt be the case and it is literally always the case.
also have you ever wondered why the "most oppressive" decks in hearthstone only have a 55% winrate? it just happened that every single deck in the history of the game is near 50%? given the wide variety of player skill, deck formulas, and all the other factors, it truly is mindboggling that 50% is somehow the magic number. its almost like skill doesnt matter, 50% does... :)
but wait let me guess, "its cause of all the data is being collected from legendary ranked games, which includes MMR, skewing to 50%." So before you even suggest it only 2% of hearthstone players ever reach legend, and seeing as how there are millions of active players, im going to preemptively prevent any counters to this argument.
the proof is in the pudding so to speak...
i think the reason you want to resist the information is you think its a personal thing, like i think the game is out to get me, and its not, its relative, its a number assigned to your deck.
also bens triggered face was hilarious at 15 minutes in... i think maybe they arent as candid as you believe that they are or maybe ben brode does not like to be reminded of naxx lmao!
If you can't beat them, join them
I think its important to realize, what we are discussing are the exploits and oddities that you can bring forth from the matchmaker, rigged or not, bc the oddities are very real. The point Im making is that a F2P player who is new should play the lowest powered deck, that can still achieve a win condition, to avoid tilt until it is unavoidable.
I think we could debate endless why 50% is the magic number and so on and so forth, but im just trying to give him sound advice. I think you should just let him play my zero meta score deck as is, so he doesnt have to worry about queing into random OP craziness, assuming he hasnt already ran for the hills lol!
the worst thing he could possibly do is pull out his wallet and buy dust wads until he can make a jade druid, etc...
If you can't beat them, join them
I just don't think that's that unlikely an outcome without the idea that there's a hypothetical "deck rating" being applied to all levels of matchmaking. There are a bunch of effects that tend to balance things out without that:
The hsreplay.net people probably could come up with a way to test what you're proposing. It would be great if they would. I'm not saying I know for certain you're wrong, I'm just saying that "change your deck and see what happens over the next 20 games" is a REALLY bad test unless it's such an overwhelming effect that adding blah blah card means you only see hunters, ever, every single time. And, I doubt they're doing something that coarse and unhelpful.
I agree in general (although I do think that there's some value in spending dust to build one relatively strong deck of some kind just to have the good feedback of some ladder success, preferably an archetype that's shown some long-term viability and isn't dependent on specific cards that are going to age out at the next Standard update.)
^ i know its too shocking to really take in but Im serious about it.
I beg you, try my deck list, its cost nothing, and you will never que a pali, mayyybe once every 50 matches. Take out that single pirate, that one card, even within the same "pool" of players, and you will que none stop pali...
it will only take a few hours of your time and it will drastically change the way you feel about the game. just do it my man, get woke, join the matchmaking resistance :)
EDIT: and some added food for thought if you so choose to experiment, pirate warrior was the first deck ever to use pirates successfully + pali is a savage counter to pirate warrior... ;)
the truth is begging to come out :)
If you can't beat them, join them
# Class: Mage
# Format: Standard
# Year of the Mammoth
#
# 2x (1) Mana Wyrm
# 2x (2) Medivh's Valet
# 2x (2) Primordial Glyph
# 2x (2) Sorcerer's Apprentice
# 2x (2) Frostbolt
# 2x (2) Arcanologist
# 2x (3) Counterspell
# 2x (3) Kirin Tor Mage
# 2x (3) Arcane Intellect
# 2x (3) Mirror Entity
# 2x (4) Fireball
# 1x (4) Water Elemental
# 1x (6) Meteor
# 2x (6) Kabal Crystal Runner
# 1x (7) Firelands Portal
# 2x (7) Bonemare
# 1x (7) Archmage Antonidas
#
AAECAf0EBIsDuAijtgKWxwINccMBuwKVA6sE5gSWBewF17YCh70CwcECmMQCps4CAA==
#
# To use this deck, copy it to your clipboard and create a new deck in Hearthstone
# Find the deck on https://hsreplay.net/decks/ILlUgLJF36pqDm6t1mT3t/
Thank you everyone for the info about the deck and matchmaking. I didnt get everything but yea did give me some idea. Also i just noticed that i have almost all the common rares and epics for hunter decks, so would you recommend crafting dk rexxar ..is he strong? Thanks guys