I'm not here to say you should or shouldn't buy the rewards track pass, I'm just giving you the math to help you make a decision NOTE: I'm only looking at the value of the extra Gold and I'm ignoring the value of the cosmetics and the free legendaries which you can value accordingly. Technically the breakeven point is 1500 gold (15 packs for $20)
Not Reaching Lv 100 without the Pass?
With the premium pass - reaching Lv 100 is equivalent to reaching Lv 91 without the pass. This will net you about 2400 extra gold
Buying the pass is better than buying 15 packs if you're NOT reaching level 100 BUT are reaching about level 90 without the pass
Normally Reach Level 100 without the pass - this is where most of the value comes
If you're consistently reaching Lv 100 without the pass then the value of the pass is only equal to the extra levels the XP gives
10 Packs is Lv 130 with the Pass which is equal to 110 without the pass. At this point you've "gained" 20 levels which is 1000 Gold
The 15 Pack Breakeven Point is Lv 185 with the Pass which is equal to 155 without the pass. At this point you've "gained" 30 levels which is 1500 Gold... cool you get the drill
20 Packs - Lv 245 With the Pass = Lv 205 Without (Conveniently this is also about the point you'd reach naturally from just the Weekly and Daily Quests in an 18 week period)
25 Packs - Lv 305 With the Pass = Lv 255 Without
30 Packs - Lv 365 With the Pass = Lv 305 Without
Max Value - Level 400
If you're constantly reaching Level 400 without the pass... Impressive! This also means the pass has no value outside the cosmetics
There is actually a point where the pass has diminishing value and that's if you're reaching Lv 335 without the pass - at this point, buying the pass will put you to 400 which will net you 3250 gold - meaning the max value of the pass is 3250 gold
Not factoring in the extra XP from just playing - this roughly takes 32 weeks of quests (Weekly 2500 + 2x 1750 + Daily 7x 1000) all multiplied by the XP Boosts of course... You roughly need to get 12,500 extra XP per week for 18 weeks to reach this (not sure how much XP the expansion quests provide but they'd help)
Hope this helps you make your decision!
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I'm not here to say you should or shouldn't buy the rewards track pass, I'm just giving you the math to help you make a decision
NOTE: I'm only looking at the value of the extra Gold and I'm ignoring the value of the cosmetics and the free legendaries which you can value accordingly. Technically the breakeven point is 1500 gold (15 packs for $20)
Hope this helps you make your decision!