Historically, with Ragnaros and utilizing evolve mechanic shenanigans and similar, the sweet spot was 8 mana. Do you think this is the case still or has it changed? Thoughts.?
I once made an analysis to find the sweet spot for Forbidden Shaping, but unfortunately I was inactive on this website for a year so all of my posts got deleted. At the time 8-cost was indeed better than 10-cost, in wild. Guess it's time to remake it, but standard only otherwise there would be far too many for me. Average is defined as an 8-mana 8-8, to provide a benchmark to compare everything else to.
Null hypothesis: 8-cost is the best cost. 8-cost analysis:
So Ive been playing around with Nethrandamus.
Historically, with Ragnaros and utilizing evolve mechanic shenanigans and similar, the sweet spot was 8 mana. Do you think this is the case still or has it changed? Thoughts.?
I try to get it to 10 most of the time since I've gotten a lot of colossus of the moons. Also a few King Krushes at 9
I once made an analysis to find the sweet spot for Forbidden Shaping, but unfortunately I was inactive on this website for a year so all of my posts got deleted. At the time 8-cost was indeed better than 10-cost, in wild. Guess it's time to remake it, but standard only otherwise there would be far too many for me. Average is defined as an 8-mana 8-8, to provide a benchmark to compare everything else to.
Null hypothesis: 8-cost is the best cost. 8-cost analysis:
Terrible: , Beastmaster Leoroxx, Natalie Seline, Tortollan Pilgrim, Pit Crocolisk
Bad: , Jepetto Joybuzz, Tomb Warden, Heroic Innkeeper, Arcane Devourer (unless you have Twin Slice in your hand, where it's a 9/9, which is good), Twin Tyrant, Whirlwind Tempest
Average: Batterhead (heavily dependant on board state) Grommash Hellscream, Gruul, Fel Lord Betrug, Lucentbark, Mana Giant, Murozond the Infinite, Octosari (depends on your current hand and deck sizes),
Good:Al'Akir the Windlord, Catrina Muerte, Enhanced Dreadlord, Hulking Overfiend, Ironbark Protector, Supreme Abyssal, Walking Fountain, Zzeraku the Warped (since you can always use your 1 mana left to attack something)
Excellent: Coilfang Warlord, Deathwing, Mad Aspect, Tirion Fordring,
9-cost:
Terrible: Mogu Fleshshaper, Sathrovarr,
Bad: Archivist Elysiana, Cenarius, Lord Jaraxxus,
Average: Alexstrasza, Dragonqueen Alexstrasza, Nethrandamus, Nozdormu, Onyxia, Ysera, Unleashed, Ysiel Windsinger
Good: Anubisath Warbringer, Burly Shovelfist, Malygos, Ysera
Excellent: King Krush, Pit Commander
Average value: About the same as 8 cost
10 cost analysis:
Terrible: King Phaoris,
Bad:
Average:Jumbo Imp, Nozari, Sea Giant, The Boom Reaver
Good: Big Bad Archmage, Kalecgos,
Exellent: Colossus of the Moon, Deathwing, Living Monument, Living Monument
Conclusion: you have a 1/11 chance to get something significantly worse than the average you'd get from 8 and 9 costs. 10 is the best.
For the sake of completion: 7 costs are also quite good.
Even worse: Dinotamer Brann,
Terrible: Ancient of Lore, Ancient of War, Barrens Stablehand, Guardian of Kings, Lady Liadrin, Swampqueen Hagatha, Underbelly Ooze, Valdris Felgorge, Vereesa Windrunner,
Bad:Animated Avalanche, Blastmaster Boom, Chef Nomi, Core Hound, Exotic Mountseller (again, unless you have twin slice), High Inquisitor Whitemane, Lightforged Crusader, Shu'ma, Siamat, Tak Nozwhisker, War Golem, Wasteland Scorpid,
Average: Archmage Antonidas, Baron Geddon, Goru the Mightree, Kael'thas Sunstrider (since you won't be keeping twin slice in anticipation of him), Ravenholdt Assassin, Siegebreaker, Stormwind Champion, Tunnel Blaster, Wrapped Golem,
Good: Arch-Villain Rafaam, Bloodboil Brute, Bonechewer Vanguard, Cursed Vagrant, Evasive Drakonid, Marsh Hydra, Priestess of Fury, Skeletal Dragon, Winged Guardian,
As expected, worse than the average 8-drop. Probably still better than 6, though, so not bad.
To conclude: 10 is the best. 8 and 9 are about equal.
Wow. That's some work you put in. Ill aim for 10 but not be sad at less.
Thanks for your ideas and suggestions.
Thanks for the great analysis! 10 seems to be not only better, but also has less RNG involved overall