So me and a friend have just tested for 30 games the draw rates of a secret deck, they seemed fishy for us and I'm surprised no one else has pointed this out so far.
63 out of 90 times the paladin had at least 1 Mysterious Challenger in hand (sometimes two) - that's a 70% chance
Initially we argued "Pure RNG" then we tested it against other decks, using Boulderfist Ogre as our sample card (since only paladin has access to Mysterious Challenger) - the results were rather alarming.
Warrior only had Boulderfist in hand 12 times out of 30 - 40%
Druid only had Boulderfist in hand 15 times out of 30 - 50%
Rogue only had Boulderfist in hand 9 times out of 30 - 30%
Mage only had Boulderfist in hand 11 times out of 30 - 36.6%
Hunter only had Boulderfist in hand 11 times out of 30 - 36.6%
Priest only had Boulderfist in hand 5 times out of 30 - 16.6%
those are the only classes we tested and just to further eliminate the odds we tested the paladin 90 times, it took hours, literally hours.
What's with the bullsh*t rates? are there really hidden draw rates on various cards? no card should have a higher chance of drawing over any other card, it virtually fixes the game.
A suggestion: Instead of just collecting random data data you could try to analyze it.
For example:
- What is the probability of having a particular card in your starting hand if you mulligan for it? This is needed to show why you think 70% is too high - show this in both percentage points and absolute numbers.
- What is the probability of having a certain card 70% of the time after 90 samples if you mulligan for it?
No sampling or testing required. The correct probability for having Mysterious Challenger in hand at turn 6 is 61% (start 1st) and 67% (start 2nd). It's the same probability as handlock having Mountain Giant at turn 4 ( assuming they draw extra card during turn 2 and 3). In general this is true if you have 2 copies of a card in your deck andmulligan for it.
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So me and a friend have just tested for 30 games the draw rates of a secret deck, they seemed fishy for us and I'm surprised no one else has pointed this out so far.
63 out of 90 times the paladin had at least 1 Mysterious Challenger in hand (sometimes two) - that's a 70% chance
Initially we argued "Pure RNG" then we tested it against other decks, using Boulderfist Ogre as our sample card (since only paladin has access to Mysterious Challenger) - the results were rather alarming.
Warrior only had Boulderfist in hand 12 times out of 30 - 40%
Druid only had Boulderfist in hand 15 times out of 30 - 50%
Rogue only had Boulderfist in hand 9 times out of 30 - 30%
Mage only had Boulderfist in hand 11 times out of 30 - 36.6%
Hunter only had Boulderfist in hand 11 times out of 30 - 36.6%
Priest only had Boulderfist in hand 5 times out of 30 - 16.6%
those are the only classes we tested and just to further eliminate the odds we tested the paladin 90 times, it took hours, literally hours.
What's with the bullsh*t rates? are there really hidden draw rates on various cards? no card should have a higher chance of drawing over any other card, it virtually fixes the game.
30 draws are not nearly enough to extrapolate any information.
Try 1000.
Is like saying: OMG I ROLLED A DICE THREE TIMES AND IT CAME 6. MUST'VE BEEN RIGGED, I'VE BEEN HAD.
A suggestion: Instead of just collecting random data data you could try to analyze it.
For example:
- What is the probability of having a particular card in your starting hand if you mulligan for it? This is needed to show why you think 70% is too high - show this in both percentage points and absolute numbers.
- What is the probability of having a certain card 70% of the time after 90 samples if you mulligan for it?
- Are the results statistically significant?
This thread is just "Bullsh*t". I'm sorry for you wasting hours on this, but 30 games are far from being statistically significant. Gamblers fallacy.
30 games is statistically meaningless... try 3000
No sampling or testing required. The correct probability for having Mysterious Challenger in hand at turn 6 is 61% (start 1st) and 67% (start 2nd). It's the same probability as handlock having Mountain Giant at turn 4 ( assuming they draw extra card during turn 2 and 3). In general this is true if you have 2 copies of a card in your deck and mulligan for it.