Reward
Card Clarifications
- The reward for this quest is Galvadon.
- Only spells that target a specific friendly minion will count towards the quest! Cards such as Avenge or Competitive Spirit will not work.
- You are able to choose the same Adaption multiple times.
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I factored in the probability that these choices would repeat. It is 3 out of 10 choices 5 times so = 3/10/10/10/10/10 then times 100% which gives you 0.003%. If you look at each choice seperately then it seems simpler but the probability that it wouldn't show up after five times of trying is very low.
I got different results.
Chance to get one specific adapt effect = 1-(7/10)^5 = 83.193%
So the chance you won't be able to get stealth if you adapt 5 times is 16.807%
The chance for getting two specific ones is a little harder to do. Per adapt you have the chance of 48/90 to get one of the two you are looking for. There are 6 paths where you end up without both of your wanted choices. I added them up (42/90)^5+(48/90)*0.7^4+42/90*48/90*0.7^3+(42/90)^2*48/90*0.7^2+(42/90)^3*48/90*0.7+(42/90)^4*48/90= 35.57%
So the chance to get stealth and windfury if you adapt 5 times is 64.43%
I'm very confident my results are correct. If you disagree I would appreciate you actually pointing out my mistakes. Thanks.
Oh sorry I didn't see this post.
Yes the probability to get one specific adapt is 3/10 but you can't just devide it by 10^4.
You don't want to calculate the possibility of getting stealth every adapt. (which would be (3/10)^5)
You want to calculate the posibility of not getting none. So you say 1-(0.7)^5
Well I mean that's kind of what everyone has said, they just didn't do the math. 5 chances is more than enough to almost guarantee getting every outcome at least once. The real key component here is that you have to choose one, and while 99.99999999% of the time, you're able to choose from all of them at least once, there might be a couple you want in the same discovery. At that point, you have to decide what your priorities are.
@BWOC: Of cause you have to choose but CosmonautCommie wanted to calculate what the chances are that you actually get to choose from specific ones like windfury or stealth.
"99.99999999% of the time, you're able to choose from all of them at least once" this is just a really bad estimate.
Well I mean that's what you would call exaggeration really. Also, I was responding to the second comment. My point was that nobody cared to do the math because everyone knew that you have a really good chance of getting whichever one you wanted. Not to mention that my estimate actually wasn't that far off lol. You have a crazy good chance of getting what you want, but i don't think he factored in that your previous results don't affect your current results. Either way, too lazy to do the math myself, but no matter which formula you use, the chance to get something useful in any given scenario is pretty sky-high, especially when you think about different matchups and the cases where they won't actually have removal or healing to deal with him. Opens up a much broader spectrum of adaptions you "need". Playing against druid? Don't really need stealth or hexproof, you could grab more health instead. Rogue, with their new 5 mana plant, can get around hexproof so that's not as useful; stealth is the nuts there. Warrior can't kill anything reliably without targeting it, so stealth and hexproof are great against control warrior. In some cases, you're looking for the best play, but you usually have a really good play available if you miss it.
Well somebody (CosmonautCommi) did care to do the math. So your "point" is not valid.
If you're not interested in the actual chance or if you think 99.9999999% is not "that far off" what ever you didn't define or if you're "too lazy to do the math", why would you even bother replying?
Do you not want other people to do the math? Do you want them to just use your "exaggerations" to evaluate a card? What's your point?
It obviously depends on the situation what adapts you want. But this is not really relevant to the question, is it?
Because the point still stands that people knew the card was good. Literally every argument for the card was that 5 adaptions is definitely enough to almost guarantee what you want. And in what situation does the chance matter? It's either good enough to take the gamble on, or it's not. It either gets played or it doesn't. Just because it doesn't involve math doesn't mean the statement "this card is good because you have a really good chance of getting what you want" isn't factual, there's always the good old educated guess. If you discover from a relatively small pool of cards 5 times, of course you're going to get something useful. My point was that you didn't have to do the math to realize this card was good, I can see where that was construed in the first comment, but I clearly stated what I meant in the second. The fact that people, including I, didn't care to do the math doesn't matter because my point was I could see the potential without it. And I never said that people should refer to my 99.999999% as fact, in fact, I would assume people would understand that it was a gross exaggeration. I was never once referring to the original comment as useless, I was simply saying it's plain to see how the card is good, even without the math.
The quest reward is almost guaranteed to have spell proof every time.
Is not guaranteed and the % is very low.
3 choices out of 10 5 times and the choices do repeat everytime you Adapt.
"You’re presented with three randomly selected Adaptations from a pool of ten"
When you Adapt and you are looking for 1 keyword:
[1stChoice]1/10 x [2nd Choice]1/9 x [3rdChoice]1/8 x100 = 0.13%
Each time it Adapts and you are looking for an specific keyword, 0.13%
Hi.
You're not looking for three specific cards per adapt. You're only looking for one specific card per round. So the Chance is 1-9/10*8/9*7/8= 0.3 so the chance to get one specific card is 30% (if you adapt ones) which makes sense as you pick 3 out of 10.
Please check out my other post here. You might enjoy it.
go ahead and devolve this instead of tirion/lightlord joker
all jokes aside, this card blows
The few attempts at a buff-based Paladin deck I've ever seen be even moderately successful are typically two-turn-kill combo decks, usually using Jungle Panther and/or Stranglethorn Tiger. So it's interesting to note that 1) Galvadon is also a Beast and 2) if you manage to get offered Shrouding Mist, then he's basically just another Tiger with 4 additional adaptations which is kind of crazy; even with just Stealth and Lightning Speed, this guy can make all of your buff spells lethal easily and with 5 chances to hit those 2, that doesn't even seem that impractical.
So with Stampeding Kodo being so useful in Paladin, that new Lightfused Stegodon guy, and this quest's noted synergy with Mukla, Tyrant of the Vale, is it possibly we're seeing the beginnings of Beast Pally? Not sure what you pair up with that other than Curator and maaaaaybe Kodorider in Wild but it's interesting to note I think.
Honestly there's nothing wrong with the Paladin buff cards, the issue is that buff as a strategy is inherently card disadvantageous. They need to fix that problem before they even hope that this card sees play, but we'll see what they give us for Paladin here.
As it is, this is the worst quest by far.
And no, Smuggler's Run doesn't work because it doesn't Target anything.
A lot more playable in wild due to Djinni's effect (yes it counts because the description doesn't say "play" just "cast")
Well I believe one thing is for certain, some of the remaining reveals for paladin are buff cards so they better be good.
I could rate this Meta-Defying because it is gently reminding (definitely pushing) paladin players it include more single target buff spells in their decks. And that would have to be a lot of buff spells too becuse you aren't just going to include six and hope you draw them. Paladins will have to have minions or spells that summon other minions just to gauruntee that they can use a buff will on the following turns. For now I will hold my vote until I see other buff card other than Dinosize released, and there is a good chance for that too I feel like since it was an epic card so F2P players that obtain this quest have a change with common and rare buff spells.
Do you know that Paladin has 7 healing cards?
Paladin probably has more heals than priest XDDD