How Arena Matchmaking Works in Hearthstone - Games Decided on Skill & Tracking Of A Skill Rating
Dean "Iksar" Ayala was called into a twitter thread and went on to make some interesting statements about how Matchmaking works in Arena, how games are decided almost entirely by skill level of the players involved and how Blizzard are apparently tracking a "skill" rating (though they don't use it for anything outside Data tracking).
This discussion started off with a conversation between Celestalon and a twitter user named Judge, about Arena matchmaking occasionaly matchmaking people with 0 losses against people with 2 losses, but within usually within an overal record that made the difference only 1 loss. Example records that were given: 0-0 vs. 1-2, 4-2 vs. 3-0, 8-2 vs 8-0. The contention being that these differences between 0 loss decks and 2 loss decks were often quite lopsided.
At that point Iksar entered the conversation, and made some interesting comments about the way matchmaking works.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaAll records (0-2 --> 11-0) are assigned a value and are then matchmade by that value. This isn't exactly correct, but it looks something like this:
0-2 = -10
1-2 = -9
0-1 = -8
etc
etc
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaThe order of records and distance between records is some complex table. Basically we have enough data at this point to understand how well a 2-0 performs vs a 2-1 or an 8-2 performs vs a 0-0 on average.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaAnd just like other matchmade modes, the matchmaker looks for an opponent with an identical value, then after X time extends the search parameters a small amount and repeats that process until a match is found.
Quote from Dean "Iksar" AyalaContrary to popular belief, match outcomes are decided almost entirely by the skill level of the players involved. We know this because we track a skill rating as well we just don't use it for anything outside of data tracking.
The conversation went on about the differences between 0 loss decks and 2 loss decks, with twitter users maintaining that it feels bad and Dean Ayala maintaining that it isn't worth the neglibible difference in match quality to prolong wait times in queue for Arena.
So, what are your thoughts on the matter? And what do you think your hidden skill rating is? Join us for the conversation in the comments!
I hope there's a little more to it than what his posts indicate, as I think the absolute difference of wins and losses without comparing it to the number of games in total isn't the best way to do it. In my opinion, the difference between a 2-1 and a 2-0 record is way more significant than the one between an 8-1 and an 8-0 record.
But I just read the second one of his posts more carefully and this leads me to the conclusion that they're probably aware of that and his first post was just a very simplified version of what the algorithm does.
FIX DUEL WARRIOR TREASURES!!!
The article title is grossly misleading and suggests completely the opposite of what Iksar said. It will only strengthen the tinfoil hats in that everything is rigged (as can be seen in quite a few comments)
I understand that this is probably unintentional as it doesn't actually contradict what Iksar said either... but suggestion is a powerful thing, especially for people seeking confirmation, and this suggests that matchmaking is done on a hidden skill rating
Well between what they say and what I experience seems totally different. Moreover I don't really trust their explanations when it comes to matchmaking. They say they try to oppose you against people with same value but in fact, what you get is a matchmaking more based on the type of deck you play and really feels more like they try to keep your win rate at a certain level. You check HSreplay and see what are the popular decks, you choose the counter for one or two specific decks and you rarely meet them! And their statement about skill level "match outcomes are decided almost entirely by the skill level of the players involved" is laughable. RNG is an inherent part of the game and you can be the best player in the world but if you don't get the right cards no skill can save you. HS is a game that does not reward skill it rewards resilience. Blizz wants to give the game an image it doesn't have and what want to you to think skill is involved, it is but absolutely not they way they are trying to sell it to the players. For those who think that I am salty because I am not getting what I want: I reach systematically D5 every month and reached legend at least 4 times. It's easy to reach D5 with the stars, I reach legend fine, I don't it's fine too . I just have a lot of fun playing decks I like or memes.
Yes, and this why I only buy the each expansion and nothing else. We all know that the matchmaking and mulligans are rigged. We can either be disgusted and quit or still love it and play anyway. Blizz will always do whatever it takes to make you spend your money. But we have the final say. I still love the game so I choose to limit the amount of money I put in the game, it satisfies my addiction without feeling guilty.
That's literally the opposite of what this post says. It specifically says that it assigns a value to your record and tries to match you against people with the same value.
It then goes on to say that they track your skill level, but that they don't match based upon it.
wait, you trust what they say? lol.
this basically makes perfect sense i've suspected it for a long time something broken was implemented...
if u're a 0-2 and u queue into a 2-0 guy because of your high hidden mmr
u have a bad deck decent skills vs a guy with a good deck and decent skills the odds are heavily stacked against u
look at the leaderboards 1+ years ago i qualified with 7+ win averages now > 7 wins average lets u be in the top 200 of the server they have basically trimmed and trying to kill infinite arena players
if you can't actually figure this out in what i'm saying then i honestly don't know what to tell u
explains why u get rigged games the people... at the highest 2% of the server skill games are always decided by deck quality and RNG because they don't make fundamental mechanical mistakes... absolutely disgusting
i dunno if i'm happy or completely disgusted by them admitting it
Except that's not what they said at all. If you have a bad deck decent skills, then you get matched against someone with a decent deck and bad skills.
I'm not entirely sure that the highest 2% of players' games being decided by luck is strictly tied to arena or its matchmaking. That's sorta just the nature of hearthstone, or any cardgame really. Besides, I think players should be rewarded for building a good deck.
Not all the pro players would draft the same deck given the same set of 90 cards to choose from. Even a single card choice could mean the difference between going infinite or ending a run short.
I do agree with you that the infinite arena players are definitely being trimmed. They keep adding more and more broken, rng heavy cards, revamping the classic set so there are almost no bad cards in arena. Certainly makes it harder to pick a bad option in the drafting phase if all the cards are broken.
Did you even bother to read the post or did you just skim it? They very specifically say that the "hidden mmr" (as you put it) is for data tracking only. Their arena matchmaking tries to match people based on their current arena run record.
To avoid making this mistake in the future, don't comment after skimming a post. Actually take the time to read it.
Yeah I usually think it's pretty skillful when my opponent slams a perfect curve on me for 6 turns.
What skill are they talking about, when random card generating mechanics (e. g. discover) are widely used? Remember Paveling Book? Was that game (which was an Esports event, by the way) decided by skill too? You can argue that game might be an exception, but it doesn't feel so
Disgusting. Arena matchmaking should be based on one thing and one thing alone - your record. Activision loves this hidden skill rating crap.
Arena was supposed to be the one mode immune to this crap. The one mode where you get a fresh start every time you start a new deck.
This makes me never want to play arena again.
By which I mean I don't believe them when they say they track your skill rating but don't use it for anything.
Dude, have you read the article? He explicitly said, they only use the skill rating for statistics. Matchmaking won't get touched by it. You got way too angry over nothing here.
And I don't believe him.
Why wouldn't you believe that? Literally every major game company performs data tracking just like this. They specifically said that they match based upon your current record, which is exactly what you said they should be doing.
If you can't believe them when they say that they're doing exactly what you say they should be doing, then maybe stop supporting them by playing their games.
it’s not my fault when i loose
To all you rigged boys, I'll tell you what happens:
Today, I played vs 4 priests in a row on the Wild ladder, 3 big, 1 Raza. My deck has a hard matchup vs priest, and I came off a win streak. RIIIGGED i might have cried, the game is punishing ME for MY winstreak.
No.
Part of my win streak was DODGING priest for the previous several games, and as the class is quite popular, they would have to show up eventually. And if I switch decks to counter priest, is it most probable I will keep facing even more priests in a row, or that I will face more other decks?
Randomness is random, just deal with it. One of the priests played very badly and lost, so I still got a 2-2 out of my "unlucky" streak, which is completely fine.