We Learn Nothing New About Card Pack Drop Rates
A new set of rules in China that became active on May 1st requires that games with "loot boxes" publish their odds publicly as to let consumers know what they're getting into. There was a lot of hype surrounding this announcement of these rules because we'd finally learn the deep dark secrets of Hearthstone's card packs, but that's not what happened.
A blog on the Hearthstone China website came out and had this to say about card packs.
- You'll get at least 1 rare, or better, in each pack.
- An epic will be received, on average, in 1 of every 5 packs.
- Legendaries, on average, will be received in 1 of every 20 packs.
- As players open more packs, the actual probability of opening cards with higher quality increases.
TADA! We learned nothing new. Over the past few years, the community itself has done a better job at figuring out the various card drop rates, and even figured out the pity timer. You should check out the card pack statistics page on the Hearthstone Wiki.
Blog Post Translation
Google Translate to the rescue! You should be able to get the gist of it.
Interestingly, the post has been backdated April 2nd. We're assuming this is because they didn't want it to be on the front of their blog and thus widespread knowledge to more casual fans. Fun.
Quote from BlizzardAccording to the relevant national laws and regulations, "slag legend" is now the probability of taking cards to publish, as follows:
Note: "slag legend" card package a total of five cards, including four different quality.
Rare cards
Each slag card package, at least to get a rare or higher quality card.
Epic card
An average of 5 slag card card package, you can get an epic quality card.
Legend card
An average of 20 slag card card package, you can get a legendary quality card.
In addition, it should be noted that: with the number of cards to increase the number of packages, players actually get high-quality card card probability will also increase.
The "card pack statistics page on the Hearthstone Wiki" as mentioned in the above news post has Un'Goro data for 1256 packs at the bottom of the page.
We'd probably 20x that to distinguish if the rates were different, as the error bars are too big on 1k packs.
No golden card drop rates? Blizzard is trying to be sneaky here, I hope that China finds this unsatisfactory.
I have never gotten legendaries within twenty packs of each other.At least twice in the last year alone, in the Gadgetzan and Un'Goro releases, I have gone over thirty packs between them.
Sometimes I have bought two packs and got two legendaries. That figure is just average.
You've just been unlucky. For the 45 Un'Goro packs I bought with gold, and the 8 free ones from the various TBs & login rewards, I got Fire Plume's Heart in pack number 10 and Tyrantus in pack number 22. Random is random.
This is complete bullshit. 20 packs? More like 40 packs to get a legendary. The more you open does not increase your chances at all either. I opened 120 packs back to back at unguro launch and I got 3 legendaries. So whoever wrote this article and the devs are lying to us. The drop rate has if anything been reduced dramatically. Anything starting from old gods and going forward has shown this.
Kinda hate to be that guy, but I opened like 70 packs and got 4 legendaries and a golden legendary.
Just because you got shafted doesn't mean that the average is right for the community.
I feel your pain. 70+ Un'Goro packs for me, and one Legendary. I lost count of the number of Gadgetzan -- it was probably more than Un'Goro -- and I pulled a Sgt. Sally and perhaps one other.
I've opened around 2000 packs over the years. I am right about 1/20, including getting two in one pack, legendaries in consecutive packs, and 9 in sixty packs. On the other hand, I've hit the pity timer as well. It all cancels out in the end.
Fucking arseholes
I personally have opened a lot of packs, somewhere between 120-240 per expansion. I've kept track of my drop rates of legendaries, epics, and goldens in a notepad file as I open them (although I don't do that for random packs I get from Tavern Brawls or freebies Blizzard gives, just from packs I've purchased through the store). I've found the following rates per rarity and it has held for every expansion:
Legendary - 1 in ~18 packs
Epic - 1 in ~5 packs
Golden - 1 in ~6.5 packs
I have also noticed that when cracking all these packs there is a point (usually somewhere around 70-90 packs opened) where I seem to catch fire and open a bunch (3 or 4) of legendaries in a short span of packs. That is obviously anecdotal since it's not like I kept exact stats on that, but it is something I have noticed. I can't say for certain that I've ever gone over 40 packs with no legendary as I didn't start paying attention to that until Mean Streets, but it has held true for Mean Streets and Un'Goro.
ive tracked my packs as well. I got
Legend -1 in ~25 packs
Epic -1 in ~4
and openening 40 packs without a legendary is only possible if you open different types of packs. I buy classic packs from gold and get ungoro packs from arena so it looks like it takes a while before i get a legendary but that is becasue that are 2 different pack types so also 2 different pity timers. so it can take 80 packs to open 2 legendarys in 2 packs
This post does confirm the pity timer for epic is 10 and legendary is 40 and that the distribution is not skewed. If there was no cap, the chance of getting a legendary would need to be much greater than 1/20 (obviously it is not) in order for the average to be 20. For every player that gets a legend on the 3rd pack, some poor sap had to wait until 37.
are you 100% sure you opened 80 packs? not more like 75 and you are just extremely unlucky?
Just downvote this comment for absolutely no reason at all!
Is there actually a real Pity Timer that is confirmed by Blizzard? Or is it something that community guesses?
There is a pity timer.
heh, one in every 20 for legendaries? I guess with this expansion anyways, my luck ran out as I got 3 legendaries in 110 packs.