Hearthpwn

While I admit this isn't a huge sample - in 36 matches of tracking arena play, I'm showing that I lose way more when I have Coin vs when I go first.

29% win percentage with Coin

almost 60% win percentage when going first.

Anyone else have similar results (specific to Arena)?

I think Blizzard's official numbers were approximately 51% in favor of going first (not specific to arena). 

I'm not sure about constructed really, although I suspect it still holds true. With arena it's decidedly in favor of the person going first. Since I've been tracking my arena statistics, I've noticed that I win about 8% more when going first. Having said that, for that great of a differential to exist, you must not be using the coin very effectively to (as much as possible) offset the going first advantage. Do you mean 36 arena games or 36 total runs?

Just as my personal opinion (without factual research, as you seem to have done), I prefer to get the coin--I like the extra card and so many of the ones I want to play first are two mana, not one.

Of course, there's always the tricky single mana. Sometimes I'd love to play Mortal Coil when I draw second (specifically when my opponent plays a one-lifer), but I can't, because I don't want to risk losing some of my favorite cards to the randomized toss-out.

I always like having the coin as well. No statistics to back if I am doing better with it, though.

I have roughtly same w/l with or without coin (+-67). But i do get coin in only 1/3 of my matches tho :X I LOVE COIN <3 gimme moar plsssssss :d

For reference: Is starting with The Coin advantageous?  (Not Arena-specific though)

In constructed I play 2 zombie chows in almost all my decks and I always want to go first.

My stats:

• Without coin: 71% win rate (sample size; 759 games)
• With coin: 66% win rate (sample size; 846 games)

So on balance going 1st is statistically better.

That said, class, deck composition & opening hand draw ultimately determine whether coin is an advantage or disadvantage.

It depends a bit on the class and deck that i play but in general (my winrate with coin is 58,62% and going first 62,99%) i prefer going first.

The numbers are just averages.  I'd be curious to see the standard deviations.  The better the player, the more likely they are to capitalize on the first turn advantage.  Maybe the very best players win 20% more when going first, while bad players squander the first turn advantage and would have better win rates going second.

Going first will always be better in arena statistically over a large enough sample of games. That said in any specific game it depends very much on the deck and your mulligan. The coin offers the ability to fix and maintain a better curve but going first means you will often get top pick in trades as long as your curve goes well.

So, to me if the first player can not curve well into turn 1 2 and 3 but the coined player can the advantage instantly shifts. If the mulligan does not go terrible for either player then the ability to get first picks in the trades give them a distinct advantage.

Early in the arena run, I want to go first.  This is generally when you go up against the weakest players, and they generally use the coin poorly.  I've seen so many coin out two drop on turn 1, hero power to no effect on turn 2 plays that make no sense . . . 

Later in the run, I prefer to have the coin for some of the reasons stated previously (helps to smooth out curve, allows tempo plays, etc.)

I always want to begin with coin. It allows me to be more flexible and helps with curve as well.

My stats:

Coin: 66,67% sample 183

Without coin: 57,21% sample 215

Quote from ooozuz »

I used to care about that, but now I don't give a sh*t about going first or second. The only difference is how to mulligan.

yeah i kinda resigned to this as well, but im still pretty sad, when im not getting coin (in arena), cause in most of my games, when opponent has coin, he also has 2x 2drop and goes T1-2drop T2-2drop and if i dont have perfect mulligan im fucked and in recovery mode for most of the match :( i still have ok winrate, but it is frustrating :F

It's a 4.45% advantage going first in arena. In constructed the difference is much smaller only 51.3%

Taken from here: http://www.arenamastery.com/sitewide.php

And Here: http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/The_Coin

I prefer to go second. If i am more successful going second? I don't know. I don't see a reason to track that. If you go first or second is something you can't influence anyway.

I mostly play rogue - and my stats give me a 4% edge with coin, vs going first. But I don't think I have enough data to sway my mental position on it. If I draft a deck without many 1's, I love having coin ;)

Coin :                 Games:1396, Ratio:876 - 520, Win %:62.75%

Without coin:    Games:1349, Ratio:924 - 425, Win %:68.5%

So for me it's better to go first, only Paladin is about equal for coin or first (first a little bit better)

I definitely see your point, as well as your possible calculations. I might try and do some testing and calculations of my own to see how it differs between Constructed and Arena play.

All I know is that going first is almost always marginally favoured over going second with The Coin because of mana curve and "ramp". This occurs in virtually all the different deck-types (Control, Aggro, Tempo etc.) so I don't quite see why it would differ in Arena games as most deck-types will be Control, Aggro or Tempo. The only possible exception are Combo decks where The Coin can prove to be invaluable, however Combo decks are extremely rare in Arena.