I'm not sure if this is a stupid question or a fair assumption to make. I've heard many people discuss the idea of it, and sometimes when I get new packs I am inclined to think the same. The only time I have ever gotten legendary has been from purchasing cards. Even if I open 100 packs in a row, I'll get maybe a few epics. Then I'll buy 20 packs and get two legendary.
I'm not really mad about it. I'm just curious! What do you guys think? Anybody have proof of anything?
I play since beta and iv bought like 20 packs total, mby less and i have like 30+ non-adventure legendaries, probably all of them from packs that i got from arena and one or two from Q/brawl packs.
Even if for some reason were packs rigged, there is literally zero chance to figure it out, cause even if u will have sample of 1mil. packs, u still cant say if ur just having a super bad luck or not, no idea why ppl still feel like discussion this, but i guess they r just salty they didnt get lege already :)
I own more than 30 non-adventure legendaries and as I am a (near :-) ) f2p player, most of them have probably come from packs that were purchased with in-game gold. Never made a statistics, though.
Doesn´t appear to be foul play to me.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Battle doesn't need a purpose; the battle is its own purpose. You don't ask why a plague spreads or a field burns. Don't ask why I fight.
And interesting take on the whole random pattern is on the shuffle feature on things like spotify and ipods. The shuffle did not fell random to humans so they had to change algorithms to make them feel random to humans.
This is an old and oft repeated topic, but in all fairness, the OP admits a position of ignorance.
Everyone replying to this thread or similar ones are in a similar position and it is not unreasonable to be skeptical about patterns we see in our own anecdotal experience. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to question surface appearances or claims made by businesses with a vested interest in this situation.
Typically, many responders relish insulting the OP, which only reveals the level of that responder's character and little else of value.
Despite what many people 'feel', there is an matchmaking algorithm in place, but we are ignorant about what it really does.
Despite what many people 'feel', Blizzard does have an interest in 'holding people back' and that is keeping as many people interested and playing as possible.
The world's history is rife with examples of 'games of chance' being rigged, both by individual players and by the game makers themselves; all one needs do is look at your local state's lottery (or casinos if your state has one) to see this behavior is also often completely sanctioned by the government. The world's history is also rife with examples of 'anointed ones' gaining special advantages in games of skill (or chance); in the sporting arena, the easiest example is the officiating in the NBA.
Given our position of ignorance, anyone who has made up his mind and refuses to remain at least partially skeptical of the 'fairness' of Hearthstone is intellectually dishonest.
My final pack at the end of the year (gotten from Spectating quest), and it had a Harrison Jones in it.
First pack I opened for this year (bought with in-game gold) I got Alexstrasza.
The second pack I opened this year (bought with in-game gold), I got Malygos.
The last time I bought packs with money was the Christmas Sale, where I bought 50. I got 1 legendary (Millhouse Manastorm, who I've gotten SO many times).
Over the last month I've had FAR more luck with free packs than pay packs, which could well be taken to indicate that free packs are actually more likely to have legendaries.
The problem with this type of anecdotal reasoning is that the numbers we're dealing with that determine the overall odds and averages are incredibly huge. Large enough that no single player is going to have enough packs bought to get a guaranteed perfect alignment iwth the ratio. Sample sizes as large as this game's allows for the vast majority of players not hitting the average stats individually. To really determine if HS is cheating or not, we'd need a much larger tracking of opening packs, across a huge swath of players. This is unfortunately impossible without self-reporting, which then makes all of the data suspect.
All that being said, I don't think Blizzard needs to rig the odds, or stands to gain enough by stealth-rigging the RNG to be in favor of paid players. If they wanted to benefit from that, they'd kind of need to let people know. And I don't think letting the tin-foil hats figure it out is going to do the trick to make it worth it.
I have gotten a golden legendary, legendary, golden rare and rare in one pack from an arena run that I paid for with gold. I also average probably one legendary every 15 packs or so from arena-- all of which I pay for with gold-- so my immediate guess would be no, it's not rigged. Although I could totally see the theory being true that your chances go up the more packs you buy that don't have a legendary so there is no rage quit... And I would be totally happy with blizzard if that was the case. In fact, I hope that's true.
It would be fun if Blizzard skewed it like... yeah there is 0.0000000001% less chance to get a legendary in a pack than what we let the people know... mohahah in 100 years we will make millions! >=D
Not even- it would take trillions of years to make millions lol
Not sure if this adds anything to the arguement, but I had an instance where I opened the exact same pack two times in a row. And this wasn't just the standard 40 dust pack. It had a legendary, an epic, and a golden common that were all identical. I remember the legendary was foe reaper, don't remember the rest.
The last two packs I opened contained a golden legendary. One was from a 5-3 arena run yesterday and the other was just a 100 gold one I bought on a whim after reading this thread, lol.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'm a cake. Cakes don't speak English. Please, do correct any grammar mistakes I make, even the most minor and insignificant ones.
I used to always tell myself that I'm just overly paranoid or that I'm subject to observation bias. But after playing countless hours of Hearthstone I've always felt something fishy about Blizzard's RNG.
The amount of 1% plays that occur in hearthstone is just beyond belief. But seeing such low chance plays occuring every 10-20 games makes me really suspicious. It's almost like the game forces these unbelievable moments to make the game fun or exciting.
Go open CSGO cases if you want to see what true 1% chances really are.
I can certainly buy that the pity timer is something Blizzard would do. That makes sense from a marketing standpoint. It makes less sense to stealthily rig it so paid packs get better odds than non-pay packs. The pity timer incentivizes continued acquisition of packs, which incentivizes playing. Rewarding buyers (and again, doing so while denying it) runs the risk of creating animosity amongst the free players, which discourages gold acquisition, which discourages playing.
If I buy 39 Classic, then 39 GvG, then 39 TGT, and I don't pull a legendary in any of these packs, then I buy one of each, will the last three packs each contain a legendary? or does the timer reset whenever I switch pack types?
It's so funny that we finally found out that there are some shady things going on with pack opening. Makes all those guys who bitched about how people are crazy and that there is no chance things work other way than 100% random.
And sure, this is an example of rigging in our favor, but hell, that also proves that blizz messes around with the probabilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some other RNG modifiers going on. I'm not even necessarily criticizing, because it sounds reasonable to not have like... 3 imp-losions dealing 2 damage in a row, but as a curious person I can't help to start wondering how far blizz hands are manipulating that 100% RANDOM RNG hahaha
It's so funny that we finally found out that there are some shady things going on with pack opening. Makes all those guys who bitched about how people are crazy and that there is no chance things work other way than 100% random.
And sure, this is an example of rigging in our favor, but hell, that also proves that blizz messes around with the probabilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some other RNG modifiers going on. I'm not even necessarily criticizing, because it sounds reasonable to not have like... 3 imp-losions dealing 2 damage in a row, but as a curious person I can't help to start wondering how far blizz hands are manipulating that 100% RANDOM RNG hahaha
Sure, this meteor is nothing more than a meteor, but it proves that there are things in space, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are whole planets made of ice cream.
It's so funny that we finally found out that there are some shady things going on with pack opening. Makes all those guys who bitched about how people are crazy and that there is no chance things work other way than 100% random.
And sure, this is an example of rigging in our favor, but hell, that also proves that blizz messes around with the probabilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some other RNG modifiers going on. I'm not even necessarily criticizing, because it sounds reasonable to not have like... 3 imp-losions dealing 2 damage in a row, but as a curious person I can't help to start wondering how far blizz hands are manipulating that 100% RANDOM RNG hahaha
What IS funny is that just about all of the 'It's rigged" arguments pushed it against the customer. It painted Blizzard as working against the public and making sure they paid more for less. So when we have actual data of it it proves the opposite: rigged in our favor.
If you want to ponder about things and theorycraft then that's fine, but if you want to actually convince people one way or another, get some real data. Others have and the truth can be found. You can do the same with those implosions. I know I have regarding webspinner (people said that it favored big cards to make thing 'interesting'. I found that it's an even chance on all cards).
If someone wants to prove that the system looks for counter decks to your deck or that the game makes sure that warriors get the axe far more than RNG would dictate then I'm all ears and if they prove it I'll defend them violently.
Until then, you'll be deemed as crazy.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.
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I preordered 50 TGT packs for money and got 1 legendary in them. I bought another 30 with gold and had like 3 legendaries in them.
I own more than 30 non-adventure legendaries and as I am a (near :-) ) f2p player, most of them have probably come from packs that were purchased with in-game gold. Never made a statistics, though.
Doesn´t appear to be foul play to me.
And interesting take on the whole random pattern is on the shuffle feature on things like spotify and ipods. The shuffle did not fell random to humans so they had to change algorithms to make them feel random to humans.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/why-random-shuffle-feels-far-from-random-10066621.html
This is my post from a related topic:
This is an old and oft repeated topic, but in all fairness, the OP admits a position of ignorance.
Everyone replying to this thread or similar ones are in a similar position and it is not unreasonable to be skeptical about patterns we see in our own anecdotal experience. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to question surface appearances or claims made by businesses with a vested interest in this situation.
Typically, many responders relish insulting the OP, which only reveals the level of that responder's character and little else of value.
Despite what many people 'feel', there is an matchmaking algorithm in place, but we are ignorant about what it really does.
Despite what many people 'feel', Blizzard does have an interest in 'holding people back' and that is keeping as many people interested and playing as possible.
The world's history is rife with examples of 'games of chance' being rigged, both by individual players and by the game makers themselves; all one needs do is look at your local state's lottery (or casinos if your state has one) to see this behavior is also often completely sanctioned by the government. The world's history is also rife with examples of 'anointed ones' gaining special advantages in games of skill (or chance); in the sporting arena, the easiest example is the officiating in the NBA.
Given our position of ignorance, anyone who has made up his mind and refuses to remain at least partially skeptical of the 'fairness' of Hearthstone is intellectually dishonest.
My final pack at the end of the year (gotten from Spectating quest), and it had a Harrison Jones in it.
First pack I opened for this year (bought with in-game gold) I got Alexstrasza.
The second pack I opened this year (bought with in-game gold), I got Malygos.
The last time I bought packs with money was the Christmas Sale, where I bought 50. I got 1 legendary (Millhouse Manastorm, who I've gotten SO many times).
Over the last month I've had FAR more luck with free packs than pay packs, which could well be taken to indicate that free packs are actually more likely to have legendaries.
The problem with this type of anecdotal reasoning is that the numbers we're dealing with that determine the overall odds and averages are incredibly huge. Large enough that no single player is going to have enough packs bought to get a guaranteed perfect alignment iwth the ratio. Sample sizes as large as this game's allows for the vast majority of players not hitting the average stats individually. To really determine if HS is cheating or not, we'd need a much larger tracking of opening packs, across a huge swath of players. This is unfortunately impossible without self-reporting, which then makes all of the data suspect.
All that being said, I don't think Blizzard needs to rig the odds, or stands to gain enough by stealth-rigging the RNG to be in favor of paid players. If they wanted to benefit from that, they'd kind of need to let people know. And I don't think letting the tin-foil hats figure it out is going to do the trick to make it worth it.
Trying Real Hard To Keep Hunter Relevant
Quoting Ben Brode
"they are decided as you open the pack"
Original post
Confirmation bias...confirmed.
I have gotten a golden legendary, legendary, golden rare and rare in one pack from an arena run that I paid for with gold. I also average probably one legendary every 15 packs or so from arena-- all of which I pay for with gold-- so my immediate guess would be no, it's not rigged. Although I could totally see the theory being true that your chances go up the more packs you buy that don't have a legendary so there is no rage quit... And I would be totally happy with blizzard if that was the case. In fact, I hope that's true.
Han Solo dies
Not sure if this adds anything to the arguement, but I had an instance where I opened the exact same pack two times in a row. And this wasn't just the standard 40 dust pack. It had a legendary, an epic, and a golden common that were all identical. I remember the legendary was foe reaper, don't remember the rest.
The last two packs I opened contained a golden legendary. One was from a 5-3 arena run yesterday and the other was just a 100 gold one I bought on a whim after reading this thread, lol.
I used to always tell myself that I'm just overly paranoid or that I'm subject to observation bias. But after playing countless hours of Hearthstone I've always felt something fishy about Blizzard's RNG.
The amount of 1% plays that occur in hearthstone is just beyond belief. But seeing such low chance plays occuring every 10-20 games makes me really suspicious. It's almost like the game forces these unbelievable moments to make the game fun or exciting.
Go open CSGO cases if you want to see what true 1% chances really are.
I can certainly buy that the pity timer is something Blizzard would do. That makes sense from a marketing standpoint. It makes less sense to stealthily rig it so paid packs get better odds than non-pay packs. The pity timer incentivizes continued acquisition of packs, which incentivizes playing. Rewarding buyers (and again, doing so while denying it) runs the risk of creating animosity amongst the free players, which discourages gold acquisition, which discourages playing.
Trying Real Hard To Keep Hunter Relevant
If I buy 39 Classic, then 39 GvG, then 39 TGT, and I don't pull a legendary in any of these packs, then I buy one of each, will the last three packs each contain a legendary? or does the timer reset whenever I switch pack types?
It's so funny that we finally found out that there are some shady things going on with pack opening. Makes all those guys who bitched about how people are crazy and that there is no chance things work other way than 100% random.
And sure, this is an example of rigging in our favor, but hell, that also proves that blizz messes around with the probabilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some other RNG modifiers going on. I'm not even necessarily criticizing, because it sounds reasonable to not have like... 3 imp-losions dealing 2 damage in a row, but as a curious person I can't help to start wondering how far blizz hands are manipulating that 100% RANDOM RNG hahaha
One does not simply walk into Mordor,
unless they want to be the best they can be.