You know how you're like "warriors ALWAYS have fiery waraxe! WTF!?!?" Then you come to the forums, complain about it, and cry because you have such bad luck! Then everyone tells you that you are stupid because you only remember the bad times and the good times are deleted from your memory. Well that's how I felt! So instead of coming here, I started tracking my games vs warrior. I started 2 seasons ago. I don't play very much btw. But out of 52 games vs warrior, they played fiery waraxe turn 2, or coined it out, in 43 games. Does this flow with what the math says?
Meh, my english is barely enough to speak, let alone to explain maths, since its not my native language. Let's just hope that if we post here hard enough someone else will explain.
I actually could use paint or something else to draw the formula, but is even worth the effot?
One fact that is important that cards you throw away, you can't draw in the muligan. So the deck size is smaller, i.e. if you drop all 4 cards the deck size for the re-draw of the starting hand is 26, not 30. The cards get added for the Turn 1 draw though of course.
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You know how you're like "warriors ALWAYS have fiery waraxe! WTF!?!?" Then you come to the forums, complain about it, and cry because you have such bad luck! Then everyone tells you that you are stupid because you only remember the bad times and the good times are deleted from your memory. Well that's how I felt! So instead of coming here, I started tracking my games vs warrior. I started 2 seasons ago. I don't play very much btw. But out of 52 games vs warrior, they played fiery waraxe turn 2, or coined it out, in 43 games. Does this flow with what the math says?
Starting Hand: 19.3% | 25.3%
Mulligan: 36.6% | 46.9%
Turn 1 draw: 41.3% | 51.0%
Turn 2 draw: 45.8% | 54.9%
For 2 of in your deck, left on the play, right on the draw.
More accurate - 2|30. Because after you draw it is 2|29, so its not 1|15 every turn.
It is 2|30-(1+turn number) if deck has no card draw at all.
Well, roghtly. Mulligan also counts, so it is 2|27 on play and 2|26 on draw, and then the formula.
What is the precise math behind this?
Meh, my english is barely enough to speak, let alone to explain maths, since its not my native language.
Let's just hope that if we post here hard enough someone else will explain.
I actually could use paint or something else to draw the formula, but is even worth the effot?
I found an explanation here that cleared it up for me.
Haha, it even has an easier way to calculate than I used.
Thank you, good stranger for finding this!
One fact that is important that cards you throw away, you can't draw in the muligan. So the deck size is smaller, i.e. if you drop all 4 cards the deck size for the re-draw of the starting hand is 26, not 30. The cards get added for the Turn 1 draw though of course.