You say that but it actually does increase. I know...I know...you've studied statistics for 50 years or something and have published work in game theory...
But the chance of not getting a legendary does in fact decrease over time, even if the chance per pack remains exactly the same because the probability of not getting one after X+1 packs becomes less and less likely.
The chance of you getting no legendaries after a million packs is less than the chance of you not getting one after 22, so between now and then, you chance to get a legendary will increase.
You will get your legendaries soon OP, Insha'allah
No. The chance for one legend in a pack is always 1/20. It does not increase. It's a question of semantics more then anything. The chance of drawing a legendary in 100 packs is higher then it is in 20 packs. But that's something different.
You say that but it actually does increase. I know...I know...you've studied statistics for 50 years or something and have published work in game theory...
But the chance of not getting a legendary does in fact decrease over time, even if the chance per pack remains exactly the same because the probability of not getting one after X+1 packs becomes less and less likely.
The chance of you getting no legendaries after a million packs is less than the chance of you not getting one after 22, so between now and then, you chance to get a legendary will increase.
You will get your legendaries soon OP, Insha'allah
It is more improbable to get 0 legendaries in 1,000 packs than it is in 22, that is correct, but the fact that he hasn't gotten a legendary yet has absolutely no bearing on future outcomes. His next pack will have the same odds of getting a legendary as his first pack did. If he had pulled 7 legendaries in his 22 packs, his next pack, would still be a 1:20 chance.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, he is more likely to pull one the more packs he opens. If you roll 1-20 in a random number generator 25 times, you're more likely to get a 1 than if you only roll 22 times. That isn't the same though as "I haven't gotten one yet, so I'm due for one in the next couple packs."
I haven't studied statistics at all actually, though that comment was funny.
yes, on a roll by roll basis the game is not changing its calculations.
I'm not saying that the simulation the game runs to determine the outcome changes, but it's a fun little facet of 'random' and 'probability'
The chances of our solar system having all the conditions in place necessary to support life are statistically near impossibru, yet here we are...because the chance of all the billions of solar systems not having one is even lower, and that figure gets even lower each time a solar system forms.
Entropy is another thing...there's no law to prevent time from flowing backwards, it's just overwhelmingly more probable that it doesn't. 'Probability' isn't a thing nature gives a flying fuck about - chance is a construct.
yes, on a roll by roll basis the game is not changing its calculations.
I'm not saying that the simulation the game runs to determine the outcome changes, but it's a fun little facet of 'random' and 'probability'
The chances of our solar system having all the conditions in place necessary to support life are statistically near impossibru, yet here we are...because the chance of all the billions of solar systems not having one is even lower, and that figure gets even lower each time a solar system forms.
Entropy is another thing...there's no law to prevent time from flowing backwards, it's just overwhelmingly more probable that it doesn't. 'Probability' isn't a thing nature gives a flying fuck about - chance is a construct.
You could use that same logic to say the opposite. Nearly every player who opens hundreds of packs gets legendaries. It would also be improbable to think that amidst a player base in the millions, there wouldn't be a player who opens hundreds and hundreds of packs and never gets a legendary.
I contend that OP is that player. He will never get a legendary no matter how many packs he opens. He is the earth of Hearthstone.
I opened 17 packs got 4 GvG legendary cards. All of them I owned. I owned half of the GvG legendary cards before. So the chance that I did not get a new one is .5*.5*.5*.5=6.25%
its astonishing how bad people are at probability on this thread, considering we are playing a probability game... pack opening is an independent event every single time, stop with the "small sample size" and "increased odds" gibberish.
its astonishing how bad people are at probability on this thread, considering we are playing a probability game... pack opening is an independent event every single time, stop with the "small sample size" and "increased odds" gibberish.
You actually do have better odds the larger the sample size...
If you flip a coin 5 times, you're more likely to have a single outcome be heads than if you had only flipped once.
He doesn't have better odds opening a legendary in an upcoming pack, but that doesn't mean you aren't more likely to open a legendary in 50 packs than you are in a single pack.
Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none only 4 mediocre epics and a couple o golds :(, is anyone Unluckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds.
you are aware that the game does not have a memory, so... it won't be like "he failed the last 25 times, so he needs one now". The odds are average, 1 in 20 packs. If you got 20 unlucky packs, the odds are still the same!
I hope for you you get one, but those 22 packs won't influence your future packs in any way.
"better odds"... your odds are not increasing, you're still flipping a coin, 50:50 every time. yea you might happen to land a heads here and there, but there is no increase in the probability. independent events are calculated the same no matter the previous outcome.
I understand why people want to think they have better odds, but maybe different language is needed to express the point.
The RGN of pack opening is weird. I opened about 32 packs without a single legendary last month. Then early this month I opened some packs and got 3 legendary cards over the course of 12 packs. Random is random. Don't be surprised if you opened a bunch of packs and got nothing, then suddenly got more than your share all at once.
there are times that Blizzard is so thoughtful they give away 2 legendaries in a free pack and another legendary from a separate free pack got this same day. But I believe that you are able to get a legendary per 10 Packs that you opened regardless if its a pack from quest or bought with free money
i think if you buy a higher amount of packs in bulk, you should receive more guarantees, rather than just the typical "at least 1 rare per pack" but maybe that's a bit too much
That was the model in physical card games like Magic, yeah? If you bought an unopened box of booster packs, there was a guarantee regarding numbers of cards of top rarity, wasn't there?
"better odds"... your odds are not increasing, you're still flipping a coin, 50:50 every time. yea you might happen to land a heads here and there, but there is no increase in the probability. independent events are calculated the same no matter the previous outcome.
I understand why people want to think they have better odds, but maybe different language is needed to express the point.
You are correct in that each individual flip is 50%, but the odds of getting heads in 5 flips is 99.6%.
Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none only 4 mediocre epics and a couple o golds :(, is anyone Unluckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds.
you are aware that the game does not have a memory, so... it won't be like "he failed the last 25 times, so he needs one now". The odds are average, 1 in 20 packs. If you got 20 unlucky packs, the odds are still the same!
I hope for you you get one, but those 22 packs won't influence your future packs in any way.
Yes I am aware it's pure RNG and luck based, I never said it's based on how many packs you've opened.
Just opened 22 classic packs assuming with the calculations I'd get 1 legendary at least but no I was really unlucky and I got none only 4 mediocre epics and a couple o golds :(, is anyone Unluckier than me :P? so I should get a legendary in a classic pack very soon hopefully, what exactly are the odds.
you are aware that the game does not have a memory, so... it won't be like "he failed the last 25 times, so he needs one now". The odds are average, 1 in 20 packs. If you got 20 unlucky packs, the odds are still the same!
I hope for you you get one, but those 22 packs won't influence your future packs in any way.
Yes I am aware it's pure RNG and luck based, I never said it's based on how many packs you've opened.
Sorry, this made me think you actually thought that ^^
Just wondering...is there a difference between opening the standard and GvG packs? From what I opened and what my friends got it would seem that the legendaries pop more often in GvG packs than in regular packs.
No. The chance for one legend in a pack is always 1/20. It does not increase. It's a question of semantics more then anything. The chance of drawing a legendary in 100 packs is higher then it is in 20 packs. But that's something different.
So you could both of you are correct.
It is more improbable to get 0 legendaries in 1,000 packs than it is in 22, that is correct, but the fact that he hasn't gotten a legendary yet has absolutely no bearing on future outcomes. His next pack will have the same odds of getting a legendary as his first pack did. If he had pulled 7 legendaries in his 22 packs, his next pack, would still be a 1:20 chance.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, he is more likely to pull one the more packs he opens. If you roll 1-20 in a random number generator 25 times, you're more likely to get a 1 than if you only roll 22 times. That isn't the same though as "I haven't gotten one yet, so I'm due for one in the next couple packs."
I haven't studied statistics at all actually, though that comment was funny.
Opening pack is pure RNG. Bad luck does happen.
yes, on a roll by roll basis the game is not changing its calculations.
I'm not saying that the simulation the game runs to determine the outcome changes, but it's a fun little facet of 'random' and 'probability'
The chances of our solar system having all the conditions in place necessary to support life are statistically near impossibru, yet here we are...because the chance of all the billions of solar systems not having one is even lower, and that figure gets even lower each time a solar system forms.
Entropy is another thing...there's no law to prevent time from flowing backwards, it's just overwhelmingly more probable that it doesn't.
'Probability' isn't a thing nature gives a flying fuck about - chance is a construct.
No legendaries during full moon - a well known fact. Doesn't matter how many packs you open.
Oblivion!
You could use that same logic to say the opposite. Nearly every player who opens hundreds of packs gets legendaries. It would also be improbable to think that amidst a player base in the millions, there wouldn't be a player who opens hundreds and hundreds of packs and never gets a legendary.
I contend that OP is that player. He will never get a legendary no matter how many packs he opens. He is the earth of Hearthstone.
I opened 17 packs got 4 GvG legendary cards. All of them I owned. I owned half of the GvG legendary cards before. So the chance that I did not get a new one is .5*.5*.5*.5=6.25%
its astonishing how bad people are at probability on this thread, considering we are playing a probability game... pack opening is an independent event every single time, stop with the "small sample size" and "increased odds" gibberish.
You actually do have better odds the larger the sample size...
If you flip a coin 5 times, you're more likely to have a single outcome be heads than if you had only flipped once.
He doesn't have better odds opening a legendary in an upcoming pack, but that doesn't mean you aren't more likely to open a legendary in 50 packs than you are in a single pack.
you are aware that the game does not have a memory, so... it won't be like "he failed the last 25 times, so he needs one now". The odds are average, 1 in 20 packs. If you got 20 unlucky packs, the odds are still the same!
I hope for you you get one, but those 22 packs won't influence your future packs in any way.
"better odds"... your odds are not increasing, you're still flipping a coin, 50:50 every time. yea you might happen to land a heads here and there, but there is no increase in the probability. independent events are calculated the same no matter the previous outcome.
I understand why people want to think they have better odds, but maybe different language is needed to express the point.
The RGN of pack opening is weird. I opened about 32 packs without a single legendary last month. Then early this month I opened some packs and got 3 legendary cards over the course of 12 packs. Random is random. Don't be surprised if you opened a bunch of packs and got nothing, then suddenly got more than your share all at once.
Chance for not getting legendary is 95% per pack so chance for not getting legendary when open 20 pack is 0.95^20 = ~30 %. it is pretty high.
there are times that Blizzard is so thoughtful they give away 2 legendaries in a free pack and another legendary from a separate free pack got this same day. But I believe that you are able to get a legendary per 10 Packs that you opened regardless if its a pack from quest or bought with free money
here's my video:
2 Legendaries Video: http://youtu.be/DZOIn5639is
1 Legendary Video: https://youtu.be/aTFqYW59J9E
That was the model in physical card games like Magic, yeah? If you bought an unopened box of booster packs, there was a guarantee regarding numbers of cards of top rarity, wasn't there?
You are correct in that each individual flip is 50%, but the odds of getting heads in 5 flips is 99.6%.
Yes I am aware it's pure RNG and luck based, I never said it's based on how many packs you've opened.
Sorry, this made me think you actually thought that ^^
Just wondering...is there a difference between opening the standard and GvG packs? From what I opened and what my friends got it would seem that the legendaries pop more often in GvG packs than in regular packs.
It is that luck that you should take to Vegas.
Extremely poor luck is just as likely (and rare) as extremely great luck. Somewhere, somehow, somoene got 12 legendaries in 107 packs =D