EDIT: I made this thread before we knew Genn & Baku would be rotated out.Go to page 3 for a small update of these conclusions.
In the "I have too much free time" category, I've checked every archetype on HSReplay too see which archetype will lose which cards. I included marginally played/tier 5 decks in my analysis since the rotation may make those decks viable. (Note that I started to write this post before the nerf were announced, I think most conclusions stand).
This is not an attempt at predicting what the future meta will look like though it can help. Obviously we don't know the next expansion yet so we can't make any predictions yet.
I divived the rotating cards of each archetype into 3 categories:
Deck-defining - Highly specific card that defines the archetype and/or is critical to its viability.
Important - Strong card that give the deck its power level. Its rotation won't kill the archetype but will significantly weaken it.
Less important- Tech card that can easily be replace and/or is only used in certain versions of the archetype. Does not threaten a deck.
I've ranked archetypes in 4 categories depending on which cards they will lose. This categorization was made using subjective criteria, feel free to disagree with me on those.
LEAST AFFECTED - The deck doesn't lose any core cards. It may lose other important cards, but these losses are manageable. If the deck is currently good, expect it to dominate the early meta of the next expansion.
WEAKENED - The deck loses very impactful cards that won't kill it, but will significantly reduce its power level.
ENDANGERED - The deck loses core cards on which it relies. It must absolutely obtain a replacement in the new set otherwise it will disappear.
DOOMED - The deck relied on a very specific card or a very specific expansion theme that will rotate. It is extremely unlikely to survive the rotation.
NOTE: These status are independent of the current power level of a deck. A Tier 4 deck can be "least affected" and remain Tier 4 after the rotation.
Analysis per class
Bold denotes current meta decks, italics denotes marginal decks which I included in case they'd feed on the rotation like cockroaches.
The nerfs really gutted the class, but according to VS it remains playable despite them.
Mecha'thun Druid's win condition, Naturalize/Innervate, is still here even though its draw engine is heavily gutted. It can act as a check against decks that are too greedy (Odd Warrior says hi). It will need more low-cost spells to cycle through Auctionner though.
Blizzard will likely continue to push the Treant Druid archetype. It might become viable next expansion.
Hunter is the best class in the game right now, but it will likely not be the case in the future.
Midrange Hunter, the most played deck in the game right now, is also one of the least affected, but it will have issues. The rotation of Crackling Razormaw will leave a big hole in MH's curve, it's a bigger deal than the loss of DK Rexxar. However, the biggest problem for MH is that all of its worst matchups (Baku decks) will survive the rotation! Despite this, MH is a well-rounded deck that is unlikely to go away.
Secret Hunter remains playable, but is already lagging behind since the Spelltone nerf. It also loses its best secrets. However, Subject 9 remains, so I wouldn't completely throw the archetype away.
Cube and Spell will die. F.
The loss of Deathstalker Rexxar will also be a big deal. The card single-handedly made "control" Hunter viable by being an infinite value generator. Without it, the class is more vulnerable to late-game decks.
Mage remained medicore throughout 2018, and the nerfs to Mana Wyrm and Jaina's cleavage didn't help, but recently became better thanks to Odd-Aggro Mage.
Fortunately, Odd-Aggro Mage will likely remain viable in 2019. The only major loss is Explosive Runes, a card that can be replaced with burst. The downside is that the class' matchups against Paladin and Warrior are terrible, and these two classes will keep their decks! Fortunately, OAM can still feed on Midrange Hunters.
On the other hand, slow mage decks Odd-Control Mage and Big Spells Mage will disappear without Frost Lich Jaina and the big spell shell to carry them.
Mage is safe, but may run into the same issue as Shaman: becoming an ok but repetitive one-trick pony.
Uther is rubbing is hands. Paladin keeps all of its viable decks. It will likely become a dominant force in the early April meta.
Even Paladin and Secret Paladin are both tier 1 decks whose shells are mostly untouched besides Sunkeeper Tarim. Prepare the lube.
Odd Paladin doesn't have it as good, but it will remain viable because it fills a niche. Many decks just can't deal with unending waves of little 1/1 shits. Ironically its biggest loss of may also be Sunkeeper Tarim from Stonehill Defender.
If you don't want to invest in the new expansion, play Paladin. Watch out for Odd Warriors though...
Priest plays, take profit from the few weeks left before April because altar boy Anduin is going to get molested by the rotation. Priest's core set absolutely sucks and the class is therefore reliant on continuously getting good cards from expansions.
The only Priest decks that still have their core left are Wall Priest and Combo Priest. Yet wthout the resurrect package, the consistency-boosting Shadow Visions and effective AOEs, I doubt these two decks will go anywhere.
Is there hope for Priest?. At least Mass Hysteria will remain. Priest is the slowest class in the game so it absolutely needs a mid-game AOE to compensate for the first few turns spent on hero-power-emote. But Priest will need a win condition in the new set to stay viable.
Miracle Rogue is an evergreen archetype, even if its shell changes every rotation. The loss of Vilespine Slayer is going to hurt, but it won't kill it. Mosh'Ogg Announcer looks like a good replacement for it. Odd Rogue will take advantage of the Midrange Hunter matchup.
The best innovations may come from Tempo, Pirate, and Even Rogue (which I lumped together because they're very similar). Captain Hooktusk is a ticking timebomb waiting to break the meta and be nerfed (and yes, she's hot). The tempo gain is just too huge. Since most good Pirates are even-cost and Sharkfin Fan is a thing, the Even variant of Pirate Rogue might also be viable.
Pogo Rogue and Thief Rogue may also fill the niche of increasing value generation, akin to Jade Druid. However, Rogue's utter lack of control tools means these decks will only be viable against truly passive decks (understand: Odd Warrior).
Shaman is already on the brink of disappearing, and the rotation won't help.
According to VS, Even Shaman remains viable despite the nuke of Flametongue Totem. However, ES' biggest issue is not its lack of viability but its boringness. The deck hasn't changed since Witchwood aside from minor adjustments like Menacing Nimbus. If Shaman gets an even-cost win condition, interest for the archetype might raise again.
What else if left for Shaman?
I feel like Overload Aggro Shaman is on the brink of viability, only one good overload card could push it over the top as a huge tempo deck.
Even if other Shaman decks suck, the class still has Shudderwock which can easily become broken (again) if a broken combo involving battlecries is printed. Hagatha the Witch is also a big value generator. There's room for improvement.
Like Priest, all of Warlock's primary archetypes are being gutted. We know from the Un'goro days that, despite what people thought before, the warlock is not invincible.
Zoo Warlock is an evergreen archetype even if the current iteration of it, that involves healing, will disappear. As long as Flame Imp and Doomguard exists, the archetype will exist. However, the question is whether it can be viable. It has to compete with Odd and Even decks (and Midrange Hunter) for early board control, so zoolock must received sticky early-game minions to remain viable.
Although Even Warlock loses DK Gul'dan, the deck is primarily based around hitting the face with big minions like Mountain Giant and Twilight Drake. Even if it doesn't receive any support, the deck might find this niche to occupy.
Meanwhile, Discard Warlock will be remembered as a failed experiment. Despite Blizzard's obvious efforts to push the archetype, it never became viable. It looks like the discard mechanic, being inherently negative, can't have archetypes built around it. F.
At last, 2 years after the nerf to Fiery War Axe, it looks like Warrior might become more than mediocre again.
Let's talk about Odd Warrior. According to VS, Odd Warrior is the most polarized deck in the game, with matchups that are either a breeze or completely unwinnable. It is similar to 2016-17 Jade Druid.
I've seen many saying that Odd Warrior will be OP as fuck after the expansion because of the rotation of infinite-value DKs and other cards, but it's unlikely to be the case for several reasons:
Reckless Flurry will go away. This will make Odd Warrior much more vulnerable to midrange or even aggro decks. AOE for Warrior are rares, it's extremely unlikely that warrior will get a new (ODD-COST) one in the new expansion
One single infinite-value card in the next expansion is enough to screw Odd Warrior
Even if no infinite-value card is printed, Warrior can still lose to finite value decks, particularily decks that delay fatigue (Academic Espionage anyone?)
This doesn't mean that it will suck, Odd Warrior will remain a powerful deck in the meta and its extremely polarized matchups will continue to shape the meta even if OW itself won't be very powerful within it.
On the other hand, if OW receives an odd-costed infinite value generator and/or a win condition other than waiting for the opponent to die of old age, then it might indeed become over the top. However, the devs are probably aware of this and won't do it.
Could Warrior's redemption come from its Tempo side instead? Stats show that Rush Warrior is already a tier 2 deck capable of generating a good amount of pressure. However, one of the deck's issues is its price (9 legendaries!). People who want to play a midrange deck might prefer the traditionnaly cheap Midrange Hunter instead, which fills the same niche.
TL;DR conclusions
✔ Safe classes that will smoothly enter the new standard year:
Paladin
Mage
Rogue
Warrior
? Weakened classes that may lose their power level:
Druid
Hunter
/!\ Threatened classes that ABSOLUTELY need broken cards in the next expansion to survive:
Priest
Shaman
Warlock
Deck with "Odd" or "Even" in their name will ruin your life. Most of you are eagerly waiting for the rotation, thinking that once the objectively broken cards from 2017 are out (DKs in particular) the game might become interesting again. You might be disappointed. This report show that, counter-intuitively, it is Genn & Baku that are making the current meta so polarized despite being balanced, rather than the arguably over-the-top cards released during the Year of the Mammoth (DKs in particular). This does not bode well for the future. Unless you're playing Paladin.
Paladin will dominate the April meta. All of the class' decks will survive the rotation, which means that many f2p players will go for the low-hanging fruit of playing the decks they can still play (and I will be part of them). Whether this will last depends on the cards of the new expansion.
The meta will become faster thanks (?) to the rotation of all the insane late-game value cards released in 2017 (i.e. Quests and DKs). The current meta seems to be the closest thing we have to the control meta everybody wanted before 2018. Make Face the Place again.
Odd Warrior will polarize the meta (see Warrior section)
To be fair zoo as an archtype always found a way to survive and to impose its will. It will lose a strong package (and won't be called healzoo anymore), but it will replace it with a new one. Imho you should put Warlock in the second category - all of the other archtypes will cease to exist, but zoo will find a way to thrive. Boomsday (and RR in a way) gave it enough support for this to happen.
To be fair zoo as an archtype always found a way to survive and to impose its will. It will lose a strong package (and won't be called healzoo anymore), but it will replace it with a new one. Imho you should put Warlock in the second category - all of the other archtypes will cease to exist, but zoo will find a way to thrive. Boomsday (and RR in a way) gave it enough support for this to happen.
I actually believe, that the new Egg and grim rally will warp the zoo gameplay around them. If Warlock get's 11 or 2 new strong early game minions (neutrals are welcome as well) this wil be at least a tier 2 deck.
EDIT: I made this thread before we knew Genn & Baku would be rotated out.Go to page 3 for a small update of these conclusions.
In the "I have too much free time" category, I've checked every archetype on HSReplay too see which archetype will lose which cards. I included marginally played/tier 5 decks in my analysis since the rotation may make those decks viable. (Note that I started to write this post before the nerf were announced, I think most conclusions stand).
This is not an attempt at predicting what the future meta will look like though it can help. Obviously we don't know the next expansion yet so we can't make any predictions yet.
I divived the rotating cards of each archetype into 3 categories:
I've ranked archetypes in 4 categories depending on which cards they will lose. This categorization was made using subjective criteria, feel free to disagree with me on those.
NOTE: These status are independent of the current power level of a deck. A Tier 4 deck can be "least affected" and remain Tier 4 after the rotation.
Analysis per class
Bold denotes current meta decks, italics denotes marginal decks which I included in case they'd feed on the rotation like cockroaches.
Drood
Status: Uncertain
Worst losses:
The nerfs really gutted the class, but according to VS it remains playable despite them.
Mecha'thun Druid's win condition, Naturalize/Innervate, is still here even though its draw engine is heavily gutted. It can act as a check against decks that are too greedy (Odd Warrior says hi). It will need more low-cost spells to cycle through Auctionner though.
Blizzard will likely continue to push the Treant Druid archetype. It might become viable next expansion.
Huntard
Status: Uncertain
Worst losses:
Hunter is the best class in the game right now, but it will likely not be the case in the future.
Midrange Hunter, the most played deck in the game right now, is also one of the least affected, but it will have issues. The rotation of Crackling Razormaw will leave a big hole in MH's curve, it's a bigger deal than the loss of DK Rexxar. However, the biggest problem for MH is that all of its worst matchups (Baku decks) will survive the rotation! Despite this, MH is a well-rounded deck that is unlikely to go away.
Secret Hunter remains playable, but is already lagging behind since the Spelltone nerf. It also loses its best secrets. However, Subject 9 remains, so I wouldn't completely throw the archetype away.
Cube and Spell will die. F.
The loss of Deathstalker Rexxar will also be a big deal. The card single-handedly made "control" Hunter viable by being an infinite value generator. Without it, the class is more vulnerable to late-game decks.
Mage
Status: Safe
Worst losses:
Mage remained medicore throughout 2018, and the nerfs to Mana Wyrm and Jaina's cleavage didn't help, but recently became better thanks to Odd-Aggro Mage.
Fortunately, Odd-Aggro Mage will likely remain viable in 2019. The only major loss is Explosive Runes, a card that can be replaced with burst. The downside is that the class' matchups against Paladin and Warrior are terrible, and these two classes will keep their decks! Fortunately, OAM can still feed on Midrange Hunters.
On the other hand, slow mage decks Odd-Control Mage and Big Spells Mage will disappear without Frost Lich Jaina and the big spell shell to carry them.
Mage is safe, but may run into the same issue as Shaman: becoming an ok but repetitive one-trick pony.
Pally
Status: Safe
Worst losses:
Uther is rubbing is hands. Paladin keeps all of its viable decks. It will likely become a dominant force in the early April meta.
Even Paladin and Secret Paladin are both tier 1 decks whose shells are mostly untouched besides Sunkeeper Tarim. Prepare the lube.
Odd Paladin doesn't have it as good, but it will remain viable because it fills a niche. Many decks just can't deal with unending waves of little 1/1 shits. Ironically its biggest loss of may also be Sunkeeper Tarim from Stonehill Defender.
If you don't want to invest in the new expansion, play Paladin. Watch out for Odd Warriors though...
Prust
Status: Threatened
Worst losses:
Priest plays, take profit from the few weeks left before April because altar boy Anduin is going to get molested by the rotation. Priest's core set absolutely sucks and the class is therefore reliant on continuously getting good cards from expansions.
The only Priest decks that still have their core left are Wall Priest and Combo Priest. Yet wthout the resurrect package, the consistency-boosting Shadow Visions and effective AOEs, I doubt these two decks will go anywhere.
Is there hope for Priest?. At least Mass Hysteria will remain. Priest is the slowest class in the game so it absolutely needs a mid-game AOE to compensate for the first few turns spent on hero-power-emote. But Priest will need a win condition in the new set to stay viable.
Rouge
Status: Safe
Worst losses:
Valeera always finds a way.
Miracle Rogue is an evergreen archetype, even if its shell changes every rotation. The loss of Vilespine Slayer is going to hurt, but it won't kill it. Mosh'Ogg Announcer looks like a good replacement for it. Odd Rogue will take advantage of the Midrange Hunter matchup.
The best innovations may come from Tempo, Pirate, and Even Rogue (which I lumped together because they're very similar). Captain Hooktusk is a ticking timebomb waiting to break the meta and be nerfed (and yes, she's hot). The tempo gain is just too huge. Since most good Pirates are even-cost and Sharkfin Fan is a thing, the Even variant of Pirate Rogue might also be viable.
Pogo Rogue and Thief Rogue may also fill the niche of increasing value generation, akin to Jade Druid. However, Rogue's utter lack of control tools means these decks will only be viable against truly passive decks (understand: Odd Warrior).
Shaman
Status: Threatened
Worst losses:
Shaman is already on the brink of disappearing, and the rotation won't help.
According to VS, Even Shaman remains viable despite the nuke of Flametongue Totem. However, ES' biggest issue is not its lack of viability but its boringness. The deck hasn't changed since Witchwood aside from minor adjustments like Menacing Nimbus. If Shaman gets an even-cost win condition, interest for the archetype might raise again.
What else if left for Shaman?
I feel like Overload Aggro Shaman is on the brink of viability, only one good overload card could push it over the top as a huge tempo deck.
Even if other Shaman decks suck, the class still has Shudderwock which can easily become broken (again) if a broken combo involving battlecries is printed. Hagatha the Witch is also a big value generator. There's room for improvement.
Warlock
Status: Threatened
Worst losses:
Tough times ahead for Warlock.
Like Priest, all of Warlock's primary archetypes are being gutted. We know from the Un'goro days that, despite what people thought before, the warlock is not invincible.
Zoo Warlock is an evergreen archetype even if the current iteration of it, that involves healing, will disappear. As long as Flame Imp and Doomguard exists, the archetype will exist. However, the question is whether it can be viable. It has to compete with Odd and Even decks (and Midrange Hunter) for early board control, so zoolock must received sticky early-game minions to remain viable.
Although Even Warlock loses DK Gul'dan, the deck is primarily based around hitting the face with big minions like Mountain Giant and Twilight Drake. Even if it doesn't receive any support, the deck might find this niche to occupy.
Meanwhile, Discard Warlock will be remembered as a failed experiment. Despite Blizzard's obvious efforts to push the archetype, it never became viable. It looks like the discard mechanic, being inherently negative, can't have archetypes built around it. F.
Warrior
Status: Safe
Worst losses:
At last, 2 years after the nerf to Fiery War Axe, it looks like Warrior might become more than mediocre again.
Let's talk about Odd Warrior. According to VS, Odd Warrior is the most polarized deck in the game, with matchups that are either a breeze or completely unwinnable. It is similar to 2016-17 Jade Druid.
I've seen many saying that Odd Warrior will be OP as fuck after the expansion because of the rotation of infinite-value DKs and other cards, but it's unlikely to be the case for several reasons:
This doesn't mean that it will suck, Odd Warrior will remain a powerful deck in the meta and its extremely polarized matchups will continue to shape the meta even if OW itself won't be very powerful within it.
On the other hand, if OW receives an odd-costed infinite value generator and/or a win condition other than waiting for the opponent to die of old age, then it might indeed become over the top. However, the devs are probably aware of this and won't do it.
Could Warrior's redemption come from its Tempo side instead? Stats show that Rush Warrior is already a tier 2 deck capable of generating a good amount of pressure. However, one of the deck's issues is its price (9 legendaries!). People who want to play a midrange deck might prefer the traditionnaly cheap Midrange Hunter instead, which fills the same niche.
TL;DR conclusions
Custom cards :
CLASSES : Alchemist (CCC#5 | Phase V) | Chef (CCC#4)
EXPANSIONS : Year of the Scorpion (Year Comp)
Wow good job. Lots of effort put into this. Thanks for your hard work
+1 is mandatory here.
Insufficient actually, even if I am a Wild main.
Nice list. Thanks for the good work. Was fun reading :).
Check out my latest deck creation: Big beasts Druid!
Nice work, CheseEtc.
[edit]
'The Caverns Below good riddance"
Good job.
Just one thing, wouldn't you consider Maly druid "weakened" instead of "endangered" given that Floop has the same role as twig?
I would have put Druid into the threatend category. But other than that: Good job. :)
Always expect the unexpectable!
Doesn’t flop cost mana?
with cb being 2 mana and vilespine, firefly gone comboing will be hard. i wouldnt say rogue will enter new year smoothly.
This post would be much better without nicknames to cards/classes.
We don't know which cards we will get in the first expansion of 2019 so it's not all over for some decks..
Druid should get something strong to offset the huge nerfs it got, and paladin should get new control tools soon as well.
Yeah but you can still do alex->maly->floop + spells, like back then when maly druid was still played and your opponent would ooze your twig.
Is Baku really surviving another expansion...? The meta hasn’t changed in over a year and odd paladin is becoming very boring.
Lol at Huntard is safe. No DK means no more auto win in control matchup. Thats huge. And sure team5 dont print that kind of card for huntards again.
Voodoo doll is from WW so it doesn't rotate. if seen it listed under in some mage deck that was listed.
But i dont think it will see play without jaina.
Amazing effort man. Well done. Thanks a lot for the share of that massive data collection.
Please Blizzard, I dont want this meta.
Edit: Thanks for the recap. Very well made.
To be fair zoo as an archtype always found a way to survive and to impose its will. It will lose a strong package (and won't be called healzoo anymore), but it will replace it with a new one. Imho you should put Warlock in the second category - all of the other archtypes will cease to exist, but zoo will find a way to thrive. Boomsday (and RR in a way) gave it enough support for this to happen.
I actually believe, that the new Egg and grim rally will warp the zoo gameplay around them. If Warlock get's 11 or 2 new strong early game minions (neutrals are welcome as well) this wil be at least a tier 2 deck.
Always expect the unexpectable!
I agree. I think people underestimate how good Vilespine is for Odd Rouge. Playing Odd Rouge without it is ruuuuuuuuf.