Hearthpwn

I built a mill Druid for casual and occasional ladder play.

Obviously Naturalize is a key card as well as Mulch. I put Raven Idols in my deck to get a second chance at those. I have used 50 Ravens and been offered 0 Naturalizes. With 31 spells and seeing 150 options NOT REPLACABLE you would think I would have seen 5 based on averages. I think Naturalize is hard coded out of Raven Idol.

At the very least this tells me cards are available on an unequal probability density function. I need to know that function if I am playing a card expecting evenly random outcomes.

I remember getting Naturalize from a Raven 

I can remeber getting it too.

Maybe you´re just super unlucky

Small sample size

Have you tried Raven Idol into Raven Idol into Naturalize ?

Nah, u were unlucky, that's all. I did get naturalize a couple of times already.

I disagree. The sample size is technically 150 and most Hypothesis testing only requires a sample of 30 to test against a mean. If expected null mean is 5 per 150 then I have shattered the null hypothesis in favor of either a) card is not present or b) card is on a density function with unequal probability.

Many times

Also keep in mind that in Wild the number of spells you can acquire from Raven Idol is greater than the number in Standard.  It dilutes your chances of acquiring a Naturalize.  And as time goes on it will only get worse.

There is about a .6% chance of that (no naturalizes out of 50 idols) happening. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Definitely not.

Sure, but all Hypothesis testing is done by comparing results against an expected underlying mean. That being the case, there is definitely an underlying mean as this is coded. The expectation is every card is offered evenly.

Obviously it is very easy to make a post saying I'm unlucky or a dismissive "you're wrong it is random". The burden of proof is on me, and luckily I have no life so I can prove with statistics that these cards are not offered on an even density. Buckle up sallys.

Quote from TooHott4U >>

I built a mill Druid for casual and occasional ladder play.

Obviously Naturalize is a key card as well as Mulch. I put Raven Idols in my deck to get a second chance at those. I have used 50 Ravens and been offered 0 Naturalizes. With 31 spells and seeing 150 options NOT REPLACABLE you would think I would have seen 5 based on averages. I think Naturalize is hard coded out of Raven Idol.

At the very least this tells me cards are available on an unequal probability density function. I need to know that function if I am playing a card expecting evenly random outcomes.

it's statistically possible, for it to happen, so...yeah in a game of rng you were unlucky

Have you tried plugging Raven Idol out- and in again?