OK - since a few months ago, there are many more quests, and squeezing maximum gold out of them is getting a little more complicated.
If I'm looking to maximise gold, I have choices to make - do I drop the 50g quest and hope for a 60+ quest?
At the moment, I keep anything 60+ and drop anything less, but sometimes I wonder if it's worth ditching a 60g quest in the hope of getting something better. Unfortunately, I sometimes get a "Win any 3" 40g quest, and short of not playing for 24h, I have to make do with 40g.
Has anyone done the maths on what strategy works best, assuming that time and games/class played is not an issue?
I've checked all the current available quests and figured it's too risky to reroll 50's. Didn't do any math, so I could be wrong, I'd love to hear someone who actually did it.
Also, have you been rerolling into "3 wins / 40 g" often? I seem to get lots of 50 gold quests I don't reroll, but when I get a 40 and do, I end up with "win 3 games". Happened 3 times in less than 2 weeks. I'm pretty sure given the amount of quests that should not happen so often.
That is only true If the average includes the amount of quests in each gold return and If the distribution is fully Random. I have never seen a list w/ the new quests to know how many 40s, 60s and 100s.
There are only 23 quests that have more than 50 gold - 19 quests that are 60 gold, and 1 80 gold quest and 3 100 gold quests (plus a quest for a pack, but that doesn't count for gold)
There are 24 quests that are 40 gold and 24 quests that are 50 gold. So 1/3 of the time, if you re-roll a 50 gold quest, you will get less gold, 1/3 of the time, the same amount, and 1/3 of the time, you will get more. I don't really like those odds, but they may be okay for you. And over the long haul, it would probably even out.
You should never give up a 60 gold quest, as there is only a chance 5% chance of getting a better quest.
All the quests are listed here - http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Quest, although for the Dominance and Victory quests, it only shows one line on the chart, but there are 9 possible options.
So, I would recommend only re-rolling 40 gold quests, as then you would get a better quest 2/3 of the time. And even if you get another 40 gold quest, it is up to you to complete it or avoid it and re-roll the next day. Since you can only re-roll 1 quest per day, at some point you would need to complete a 40 gold quest to make room for a new one.
To really maximize gold production, you should be getting 30 wins per day (to get the 100 gold for wins), but that usually takes more time than people have. The other way would be to get good at arena and get at least 7+ wins each time to become infinite and never have to worry about gold (at least for buying packs).
There are only 23 quests that have more than 50 gold - 19 quests that are 60 gold, and 1 80 gold quest and 3 100 gold quests (plus a quest for a pack, but that doesn't count for gold)
There are 24 quests that are 40 gold and 24 quests that are 50 gold. So 1/3 of the time, if you re-roll a 50 gold quest, you will get less gold, 1/3 of the time, the same amount, and 1/3 of the time, you will get more. I don't really like those odds, but they may be okay for you. And over the long haul, it would probably even out.
You should never give up a 60 gold quest, as there is only a chance 5% chance of getting a better quest.
All the quests are listed here - http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Quest, although for the Dominance and Victory quests, it only shows one line on the chart, but there are 9 possible options.
So, I would recommend only re-rolling 40 gold quests, as then you would get a better quest 2/3 of the time. And even if you get another 40 gold quest, it is up to you to complete it or avoid it and re-roll the next day. Since you can only re-roll 1 quest per day, at some point you would need to complete a 40 gold quest to make room for a new one.
To really maximize gold production, you should be getting 30 wins per day (to get the 100 gold for wins), but that usually takes more time than people have. The other way would be to get good at arena and get at least 7+ wins each time to become infinite and never have to worry about gold (at least for buying packs).
Great analysis! And since you can't have a quest twice, you should only reroll 50g quests if the average of the other two is <50. So most of the time you probably shouldn't reroll them. But that requires that the distribution is actually random.
There are only 23 quests that have more than 50 gold - 19 quests that are 60 gold, and 1 80 gold quest and 3 100 gold quests (plus a quest for a pack, but that doesn't count for gold)
There are 24 quests that are 40 gold and 24 quests that are 50 gold. So 1/3 of the time, if you re-roll a 50 gold quest, you will get less gold, 1/3 of the time, the same amount, and 1/3 of the time, you will get more. I don't really like those odds, but they may be okay for you. And over the long haul, it would probably even out.
You should never give up a 60 gold quest, as there is only a chance 5% chance of getting a better quest.
All the quests are listed here - http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Quest, although for the Dominance and Victory quests, it only shows one line on the chart, but there are 9 possible options.
So, I would recommend only re-rolling 40 gold quests, as then you would get a better quest 2/3 of the time. And even if you get another 40 gold quest, it is up to you to complete it or avoid it and re-roll the next day. Since you can only re-roll 1 quest per day, at some point you would need to complete a 40 gold quest to make room for a new one.
To really maximize gold production, you should be getting 30 wins per day (to get the 100 gold for wins), but that usually takes more time than people have. The other way would be to get good at arena and get at least 7+ wins each time to become infinite and never have to worry about gold (at least for buying packs).
Great analysis! And since you can't have a quest twice, you should only reroll 50g quests if the average of the other two is <50. So most of the time you probably shouldn't reroll them. But that requires that the distribution is actually random.
But you have to keep in mind of those quests that give more than 50g, a few them give more than 60g. Enough more that I believe it's worth rerolling even if both other quests are 50g or higher (unless they themselves are the 80g or higher quests).
(I would also argue that the pack is the equivalent of a 100g, since dust is dust.)
The thing with re-rolling a 50g quest is that you'll probably get another chance to re-roll it. If the next quest is 60+, then you're not losing out. If the next one is 40 AND you roll a 40, then you are. But since most quests are >40, then surely it's worth re-rolling a 50 (unless you get a 3-wins, etc.)?
Ok, this is bullshit. I've just rerolled for the forth time a 40g quest into "win 3 games", in a timespan of less than 2 weeks. I'm calling bullshit, there is obviously something going on here that is not pure randomness.
The average quest gold worth is just over 52 Gold. This means that in the long run you will make slightly more gold by rerolling the 50 Gold quests. Like someone said before, it's about a two in three chance that you will get another 50G or a 40G quest, so you'll just have to reroll that quest again. I was trying that but I always found I was forced to complete a low worth quest anyway as I had three.
So I say just do the 50G quests but not the 40G quests, unless they increase the number of slots available.
There are 64 quest, and the average gold return is almost 51,56, therefore, rerolling a 50 g quest should, on average, give you and extra 1,56 gold. There are a few thinks that should be considered on a personal basis:
1) If you do your quests dailly, you could argue that you have a slight higher average rerol value, since you have free slots and can try to rerol again on the next day if you get a crappy 40. If you do this, your first quest of the next day will increase in value to 51,74 (outstanding 0,18 gold), since quests cannot be repeated.
2) If you play more than 3 games a day every day, you have the risk of rolling an unskipable 40 quest, such as Win 3 games or Deal 100 damage. Depending on the number of games and deck, you could also say that Destroy 40 mininons, Play 40 spells, 30 cheap minnions or 20 big minnions are also unskippable.
Therefore, a rerol on a 50 Gold will have a 24,6% (16 out of 65) of chance to give you extra Gold, and the expected benefit for that quests is the sum of expected values (Gold-50)/65, or 5,23 gold.
A "unskippable" 40G quest looses you 10 gold, and the chance of getting any of them is 1 in 65. The expected loss is 10/65 times the number of quests you are not able to skipp due to your particular playstile, amount of games a day and decks available. For this loss to surpass the 5,23 expected gold gain of the "high value" quests, you should have 5,23/(10/65) = 29. Since there are not that many 40G quests, my conclusion, contrary to what I have been doing, is that you should ALWAYS rerol 50G if you have the slots to do so. Of course that does not take into account personal risk aversion, its up to you , but, if quests are really random, you will get more gold on the long run reroling them.
For reference, the quests I used. Feel free to check my math, specially because if I am correct, I should be rerroling those 50s!
. Since there are not that many 40G quests, my conclusion, contrary to what I have been doing, is that you should ALWAYS rerol 50G if you have the slots to do so. Of course that does not take into account personal risk aversion, its up to you , but, if quests are really random, you will get more gold on the long run reroling them.
For reference, the quests I used. Feel free to check my math, specially because if I am correct, I should be rerroling those 50s!
3 Victories!
Win 3 games with any class.
40
Druid or Hunter
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Druid or Rogue
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Hunter or Mage
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Mage or Shaman
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Paladin or Priest
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Paladin or Warrior
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Priest or Warlock
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Rogue or Warrior
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Shaman or Warlock
Win 2 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
40
Emerald Dream
Play 30 Druid cards.
40
Welcome to the Jungle
Play 30 Hunter cards.
40
Arcane Brilliance
Play 30 Mage cards.
40
Righteousness
Play 30 Paladin cards.
40
Shadow and Light
Play 30 Priest cards.
40
They Came From Behind
Play 30 Rogue cards.
40
The Maelstrom
Play 30 Shaman cards.
40
Dark Soul
Play 30 Warlock cards.
40
Tactician
Play 30 Warrior cards.
40
The Meek Shall Inherit
Play 30 minions that cost 2 or less.*
40
Only the Mighty
Play 20 minions that cost 5 or more.*
40
Destroy them All
Destroy 40 minions.
40
Spell Master
Play 40 spells.
40
Beat Down
Deal 100 damage to enemy heroes.**
40
Druid Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Hunter Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Mage Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Paladin Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Priest Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Rogue Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Shaman Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Warlock Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Warrior Victory
Win 3 games with [class].
50
Overpowered
Play 10 cards that cost 8 or more.
50
Stable Master
Play 20 Beasts.
50
Beyond the Dark Portal
Play 15 Demons.
50
Mrgrgrglrr
Play 30 Murlocs.
50
Swashbuckler
Play 10 Pirates.
50
For Azeroth!
Play 30 Battlecry minions.
50
Death to the Living!
Play 20 Deathrattle minions.***
50
Tiny Bubbles Make Me Happy
Play 10 Divine Shield minions.***
50
Rampage
Play 10 Enrage minions.
50
You Shall Not Pass!
Play 20 Taunt minions.***
50
Elemental Overload
Play 15 Overload cards.
50
Combo Meal
Play 10 Combo cards.
50
It's a Secret to Everyone
Play 10 Secrets.
50
Weaponmaster
Play 10 Weapons.
50
Inspiring
Use your Hero Power 30 times.
50
[class #1] or [class #2] Dominance
Win 5 games with [class #1] or [class #2].
60
Druid Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Hunter Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Mage Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Paladin Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Priest Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Rogue Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Shaman Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Warlock Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Warrior Victory
Play 50 [class] cards.
60
Everybody! Get in here!
Win 5 Tavern Brawls.****
60
Play a Friend!
Play a friend, you both earn a reward!*****
80
Total Dominance
Win 7 games in any mode.
100
Cry Havoc
Play 75 Battlecry minions.
100
Murlocalypse
Play 75 Murlocs.
100
Watch and Learn!
Watch a friend win in spectator mode.******
100
I agree with you on this, given the parameters outlined.
You have a 6/63 chance of rolling a worse quest, which cannot be skipped, a 23/63 chance of rolling a similar quest (which either can or cannot be skipped), and a 15/63 chance of improving. You also have a 24/63 chance of getting a worse quest, which can be rerolled at similar odds, but at the cost of not rerolling your next quest.
So while I agree with your conclusion, the maths is a lot more complex, when you take into account second rolls, and loss of opportunity to reroll the next quest.
All the analysis on quest value so far is based on the assumption that all quests are equally likely to be rolled. I'm pretty sure this isn't the case.
Yep, as in my first post, "That is only true If (...) the distribution is fully random".
I don´t have any data, maybe a group of streammers could look that up, since data from players will surelly have selection bias of people only contributing when they get unlucky.
You guys are forgetting that the quest are kinda like cards, they have rarities. Something like, 40g is common, 50g is rare, 60 is epic and 80/100/pack are legendary (not necessarily like this, just an example).
What I'm trying to say is that the "drop rate" of the quests are not the same, that's pretty obvious.
And btw, I got a huge 40g streak. I had more than 10 of those quests in a row (couting with rerolls), it was almost a week without getting anything better.
If the odds were the same that would be extremly hard to happen and we would get a lot more of 80/100/pack quests.
You guys are forgetting that the quest are kinda like cards, they have rarities. Something like, 40g is common, 50g is rare, 60 is epic and 80/100/pack are legendary (not necessarily like this, just an example).
Got a source? I believe it's random, personally. You see more 40s because there aremore 40s.
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OK - since a few months ago, there are many more quests, and squeezing maximum gold out of them is getting a little more complicated.
If I'm looking to maximise gold, I have choices to make - do I drop the 50g quest and hope for a 60+ quest?
At the moment, I keep anything 60+ and drop anything less, but sometimes I wonder if it's worth ditching a 60g quest in the hope of getting something better. Unfortunately, I sometimes get a "Win any 3" 40g quest, and short of not playing for 24h, I have to make do with 40g.
Has anyone done the maths on what strategy works best, assuming that time and games/class played is not an issue?
I am not a Site Moderator
I would not ditch the 50g quests. Don't put too much effort in them; the difference between a 40g quest and a 60g quest is in the end only 6 wins...
50g is the average, meaning (over a long enough period of time) there's no gain or loss from rerolling 50g quests.
I've checked all the current available quests and figured it's too risky to reroll 50's. Didn't do any math, so I could be wrong, I'd love to hear someone who actually did it.
Also, have you been rerolling into "3 wins / 40 g" often? I seem to get lots of 50 gold quests I don't reroll, but when I get a 40 and do, I end up with "win 3 games". Happened 3 times in less than 2 weeks. I'm pretty sure given the amount of quests that should not happen so often.
That is only true If the average includes the amount of quests in each gold return and If the distribution is fully Random. I have never seen a list w/ the new quests to know how many 40s, 60s and 100s.
There are only 23 quests that have more than 50 gold - 19 quests that are 60 gold, and 1 80 gold quest and 3 100 gold quests (plus a quest for a pack, but that doesn't count for gold)
There are 24 quests that are 40 gold and 24 quests that are 50 gold. So 1/3 of the time, if you re-roll a 50 gold quest, you will get less gold, 1/3 of the time, the same amount, and 1/3 of the time, you will get more. I don't really like those odds, but they may be okay for you. And over the long haul, it would probably even out.
You should never give up a 60 gold quest, as there is only a chance 5% chance of getting a better quest.
All the quests are listed here - http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Quest, although for the Dominance and Victory quests, it only shows one line on the chart, but there are 9 possible options.
So, I would recommend only re-rolling 40 gold quests, as then you would get a better quest 2/3 of the time. And even if you get another 40 gold quest, it is up to you to complete it or avoid it and re-roll the next day. Since you can only re-roll 1 quest per day, at some point you would need to complete a 40 gold quest to make room for a new one.
To really maximize gold production, you should be getting 30 wins per day (to get the 100 gold for wins), but that usually takes more time than people have. The other way would be to get good at arena and get at least 7+ wins each time to become infinite and never have to worry about gold (at least for buying packs).
Quit complaining and just have fun with this game!
lol
The thing with re-rolling a 50g quest is that you'll probably get another chance to re-roll it. If the next quest is 60+, then you're not losing out. If the next one is 40 AND you roll a 40, then you are. But since most quests are >40, then surely it's worth re-rolling a 50 (unless you get a 3-wins, etc.)?
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Ok, this is bullshit. I've just rerolled for the forth time a 40g quest into "win 3 games", in a timespan of less than 2 weeks. I'm calling bullshit, there is obviously something going on here that is not pure randomness.
The average quest gold worth is just over 52 Gold. This means that in the long run you will make slightly more gold by rerolling the 50 Gold quests. Like someone said before, it's about a two in three chance that you will get another 50G or a 40G quest, so you'll just have to reroll that quest again. I was trying that but I always found I was forced to complete a low worth quest anyway as I had three.
So I say just do the 50G quests but not the 40G quests, unless they increase the number of slots available.
Unpacked Golden Legendaries: Sergeant Sally, Confessor Paletress, Illidan Stormrage Hemet Nesingwary
There are 64 quest, and the average gold return is almost 51,56, therefore, rerolling a 50 g quest should, on average, give you and extra 1,56 gold. There are a few thinks that should be considered on a personal basis:
1) If you do your quests dailly, you could argue that you have a slight higher average rerol value, since you have free slots and can try to rerol again on the next day if you get a crappy 40. If you do this, your first quest of the next day will increase in value to 51,74 (outstanding 0,18 gold), since quests cannot be repeated.
2) If you play more than 3 games a day every day, you have the risk of rolling an unskipable 40 quest, such as Win 3 games or Deal 100 damage. Depending on the number of games and deck, you could also say that Destroy 40 mininons, Play 40 spells, 30 cheap minnions or 20 big minnions are also unskippable.
Therefore, a rerol on a 50 Gold will have a 24,6% (16 out of 65) of chance to give you extra Gold, and the expected benefit for that quests is the sum of expected values (Gold-50)/65, or 5,23 gold.
A "unskippable" 40G quest looses you 10 gold, and the chance of getting any of them is 1 in 65. The expected loss is 10/65 times the number of quests you are not able to skipp due to your particular playstile, amount of games a day and decks available. For this loss to surpass the 5,23 expected gold gain of the "high value" quests, you should have 5,23/(10/65) = 29. Since there are not that many 40G quests, my conclusion, contrary to what I have been doing, is that you should ALWAYS rerol 50G if you have the slots to do so. Of course that does not take into account personal risk aversion, its up to you , but, if quests are really random, you will get more gold on the long run reroling them.
For reference, the quests I used. Feel free to check my math, specially because if I am correct, I should be rerroling those 50s!
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Assuming the following 64 quests exist:
You have a 6/63 chance of rolling a worse quest, which cannot be skipped, a 23/63 chance of rolling a similar quest (which either can or cannot be skipped), and a 15/63 chance of improving. You also have a 24/63 chance of getting a worse quest, which can be rerolled at similar odds, but at the cost of not rerolling your next quest.
So while I agree with your conclusion, the maths is a lot more complex, when you take into account second rolls, and loss of opportunity to reroll the next quest.
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All the analysis on quest value so far is based on the assumption that all quests are equally likely to be rolled. I'm pretty sure this isn't the case.
The only cancer in Hearthstone is its community.
Yep, as in my first post, "That is only true If (...) the distribution is fully random".
I don´t have any data, maybe a group of streammers could look that up, since data from players will surelly have selection bias of people only contributing when they get unlucky.
You guys are forgetting that the quest are kinda like cards, they have rarities. Something like, 40g is common, 50g is rare, 60 is epic and 80/100/pack are legendary (not necessarily like this, just an example).
What I'm trying to say is that the "drop rate" of the quests are not the same, that's pretty obvious.
And btw, I got a huge 40g streak. I had more than 10 of those quests in a row (couting with rerolls), it was almost a week without getting anything better.
If the odds were the same that would be extremly hard to happen and we would get a lot more of 80/100/pack quests.
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