I'm wondering if anyone can add to this discussion. I opened a pack of 15 today and drew the same legendary twice. It appears that opening all packs at once without logging means you're more likely to receive the same card. This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug? Is the general idea to logout/close HS after opening a legendary to reset the RNG factor?
I'm pretty certain that that is confirmation bias, not fact. The way RNG typically works, seeding from a clock, would not be effected by opening packs in the same session. Personally I have opened 5 Onyxias and 3 Nozdamus over the course of 3-4 months, never in the same session, but both of our examples are just drops in the bucket compares to the samples one would need to actually test your theory, but even with all the tests in the world it could still just be bad "luck". I went on a streak once with a miracle rogue deck where I had Leroy and both auctioneers in the bottom ten cards of my deck for 5 straight games; That doesn't mean that I think the game is out to get me or that there is a bug, I just understand how randomness works and move on. (And work toward making my deck more consistent with other win conditions)
I agree with ThyEmptyLord, I have opened 12 legendaries from packs, several times saving up 15+ packs before opening them at once and have had 0 duplicate legendaries so far.
several times saving up 15+ packs before opening them at once
This is silly, Blizzard has said that the contents of the pack are decided at acquisition and not at the time of opening. Also the contents do not in any way have anything to do with opening packs in mass.
Ahh, I had not known contents are decided at acquisition. It's just, you know...all too convenient sometimes. To draw 2 of the same legendary in a 15 pack stretch, and it has happened before. Just odd.
It appears that opening all packs at once without logging means you're more likely to receive the same card. This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug?
I hope you have recorded statistics on at least a thousand packs being opened within one login session; and also from at least a thousand packs being opened one at a time with a logout/login between each one?
Please share you exact results with us, I'm sure there are people who can help you with the statistical analysis needed to determine how likely it is for the difference to be random chance.
It appears that opening all packs at once without logging means you're more likely to receive the same card. This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug?
I hope you have recorded statistics on at least a thousand packs being opened within one login session; and also from at least a thousand packs being opened one at a time with a logout/login between each one?
Please share you exact results with us, I'm sure there are people who can help you with the statistical analysis needed to determine how likely it is for the difference to be random chance.
I need *empirical evidence* to *prove* farts smell.
:o
Please share your exact results with us; scientists are waiting to help prove farts smell.
Also the rumor isn't about what happens if you get packs one by one; it's usually more about what happens if you get a *bunch* of packs at the same time (typically with real monay)
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If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
I need *empirical evidence* to *prove* farts smell.
:o
Please share your exact results with us; scientists are waiting to help prove farts smell.
Also the rumor isn't about what happens if you get packs one by one; it's usually more about what happens if you get a *bunch* of packs at the same time (typically with real monay)
Well, you kinda do need empirical evidence to prove that farts smell. Do you know what "empirical evidence" is? "A source of knowledge acquired by means of observation or experimentation." Would you trust someone who had never been in the presence of a fart but who claimed to know what they smelled like?
OK, you claim that "if you get a *bunch* of packs at the same time" you will get odd non-random results. Go on then. Get a bunch of packs at the same time. Record the precise contents. Do this enough times to get a statistically significant sample. Let's see what the results are.
Because I'm guessing the actual situation is that a few people like the OP opened a bunch of packs, got a dupe legendary, and yelled "OMG WTF LOL, not random!!!!!1" .. meanwhile many, many other people opened a bunch of packs, didn't get any dupe legendaries, and didn't post any forum posts about it.
You know why such a thing would happen? BECAUSE THE CONTENTS ARE RANDOM.
Well, you kinda do need empirical evidence to prove that farts smell.
:o
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
What fascinates me about some of these responses is the assumption on the tone of myself, the OP, and how I made my statements. I never once thought, "OMG THIS ISNT RANDOM, 2 SAME LEGENDARY!" I'm not QQ'ing or getting emo or whatever other flavor of the month insult is being hurled around these forums when someone expresses a concern and asks for feedback.
My statement was simply this. Today, I bought 15 packs of cards. When I opened them in one shot, I received the same legendary twice. As well as the same legendary, I received, 2-3 times, the same card in packs. I didn't record this, I didn't write down the contents, it was simply an observation. I have had this same thing happen before, opening 15 packs after purchasing them and receiving two Nozdormu's. It has been common place, in my mind, to open packs and see similar cards. I can recall once opening 15 packs and pulling 3 Snake Traps. My primary question was where you can "cheat the odds" by logging/closing the pack session and then resuming. However, someone stated Blizzard said the contents are set upon purchase of the cards.
The coincidence makes it hard to believe that it's completely random that I would draw the same legendary two times in a pack of 15. Does no one find that odd? If it's just "one of those things" than so be it. I was just looking for conversation and opinion.
Also, that's not how you would determine a sample size. A sample size is determined based on the population. ie: If I had 75 cards (15 packs, 5 packs per card), then you would draw a sample size from the 75 (population). From there, sample size would be determined based on what sigma level/scale you're attempting to reach/use and what certainty you'll want. Generally you want to work with a 95% confidence level, so if we have a population of 75, want a 95% confidence level and a .5 confidence interval; our sample size would be 63.
No where does the OP, myself, say "bunch of cards". It was very specifically stated what the population was. You don't need to do anything enough times to get a statistically significant sample size other than increase the population you're wished to draw a sample size from. 75 is a fine population, 63 is the statistical sample size needed to determine variance and whether it's random or not.
And if you want to go non specific, you can simple say, "I received the same 2 legendary cards out of 75. That seems odd considering the random nature of it all." Again, I was never debating whether it's random or not, more so whether anyone ever encounters this same scenario and/if there was a "work around" or suggested method to break the cycle when opening packs.
My statement was simply this. Today, I bought 15 packs of cards. When I opened them in one shot, I received the same legendary twice. As well as the same legendary, I received, 2-3 times, the same card in packs. I didn't record this, I didn't write down the contents, it was simply an observation.
No, your statement was not simply that, nor was it an simply an observation.
You said "This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug?"
Odd that you drew the same legendary twice in 15 packs? Well, first off, getting two legendaries in 15 packs is already beating the odds. But anyway, there are 36 legendaries in the current set. If you do pull two legendaries, the chance of the second one being the same as the first one is 1 in 36. That's not a high probability, but it's not miniscule, either. The chance of happening to you twice in a row? Well now we're getting into 1 in 1000 territory. That is a small chance. But how many people do you think have bought 30 packs? A lot more than a thousand, let me tell you. It would be remarkable if nobody had experienced this.
If the understanding is that you're likely to get 1 legendary per 20 packs, and I received 3 in 15 packs, while 2 were the same. That is statistically unlikely yes? And wouldn't it be less of a 1 in 36 as the likelihood isn't you get 1 legendary per pack, but you have a .2% chance of pulling A legendary per pack.
So you're simply saying that, based on your figures and my scenario, that if I were to open 1000 packs; it would occur once. What I'm saying is, I've bought far less than 1000 packs (Maybe 300) and it's happened to me twice.
I found it incredibly odd, and incredibly unlikely that I should pull the same legendary twice in only 15 packs. Very lucky and very unlikely to pull 3 legendary cards in 15 packs, let alone 2 being the same. Perhaps it was a good luck kind of day
It is certainly odd to pull two legendary within a pack of 15, that's crazy just to get 2 legendary at all in a pack of 15. You should grab a lottery ticket. No, 15 lottery tickets so you can win twice :-)
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I mean, I actually got 3 legendary in the scenario we're talking about above. Which is cool and super rare. I probably should have played the lottery :(
I mean, I actually got 3 legendary in the scenario we're talking about above. Which is cool and super rare. I probably should have played the lottery :(
Nah man, you used up all your luck in the packs, good thing you didn't waste money on the lottery ;)
It is certainly odd to pull two legendary within a pack of 15, that's crazy just to get 2 legendary at all in a pack of 15. You should grab a lottery ticket. No, 15 lottery tickets so you can win twice :-)
This post made the most sense in the entire thread.
I'm wondering if anyone can add to this discussion. I opened a pack of 15 today and drew the same legendary twice. It appears that opening all packs at once without logging means you're more likely to receive the same card. This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug? Is the general idea to logout/close HS after opening a legendary to reset the RNG factor?
I'm pretty certain that that is confirmation bias, not fact. The way RNG typically works, seeding from a clock, would not be effected by opening packs in the same session. Personally I have opened 5 Onyxias and 3 Nozdamus over the course of 3-4 months, never in the same session, but both of our examples are just drops in the bucket compares to the samples one would need to actually test your theory, but even with all the tests in the world it could still just be bad "luck". I went on a streak once with a miracle rogue deck where I had Leroy and both auctioneers in the bottom ten cards of my deck for 5 straight games; That doesn't mean that I think the game is out to get me or that there is a bug, I just understand how randomness works and move on. (And work toward making my deck more consistent with other win conditions)
Random is random.
-nttArc
I agree with ThyEmptyLord, I have opened 12 legendaries from packs, several times saving up 15+ packs before opening them at once and have had 0 duplicate legendaries so far.
This is silly, Blizzard has said that the contents of the pack are decided at acquisition and not at the time of opening. Also the contents do not in any way have anything to do with opening packs in mass.
-nttArc
Ahh, I had not known contents are decided at acquisition. It's just, you know...all too convenient sometimes. To draw 2 of the same legendary in a 15 pack stretch, and it has happened before. Just odd.
Thanks for the education though
I hope you have recorded statistics on at least a thousand packs being opened within one login session; and also from at least a thousand packs being opened one at a time with a logout/login between each one?
Please share you exact results with us, I'm sure there are people who can help you with the statistical analysis needed to determine how likely it is for the difference to be random chance.
I need *empirical evidence* to *prove* farts smell.
:o
Please share your exact results with us; scientists are waiting to help prove farts smell.
Also the rumor isn't about what happens if you get packs one by one; it's usually more about what happens if you get a *bunch* of packs at the same time (typically with real monay)
If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
Well, you kinda do need empirical evidence to prove that farts smell. Do you know what "empirical evidence" is? "A source of knowledge acquired by means of observation or experimentation." Would you trust someone who had never been in the presence of a fart but who claimed to know what they smelled like?
OK, you claim that "if you get a *bunch* of packs at the same time" you will get odd non-random results. Go on then. Get a bunch of packs at the same time. Record the precise contents. Do this enough times to get a statistically significant sample. Let's see what the results are.
Because I'm guessing the actual situation is that a few people like the OP opened a bunch of packs, got a dupe legendary, and yelled "OMG WTF LOL, not random!!!!!1" .. meanwhile many, many other people opened a bunch of packs, didn't get any dupe legendaries, and didn't post any forum posts about it.
You know why such a thing would happen? BECAUSE THE CONTENTS ARE RANDOM.
:o
If you see a post that you find objectionable, report it, it helps keep the forum clean. But be aware people are allowed a lot of latitude.
If you find my posts to be rude, objectionable, or whatever, well, I got tired of writing polite TL; DR (Too Long, Didn't Read) posts at crybaby whiners. So now I just make it short and nasty.
If you find that funny, well and good. If you find that sad, that's even better.
This entire game is random. I opened 40 packs at a time on several occasions and never got the same legendary.
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What fascinates me about some of these responses is the assumption on the tone of myself, the OP, and how I made my statements. I never once thought, "OMG THIS ISNT RANDOM, 2 SAME LEGENDARY!" I'm not QQ'ing or getting emo or whatever other flavor of the month insult is being hurled around these forums when someone expresses a concern and asks for feedback.
My statement was simply this. Today, I bought 15 packs of cards. When I opened them in one shot, I received the same legendary twice. As well as the same legendary, I received, 2-3 times, the same card in packs. I didn't record this, I didn't write down the contents, it was simply an observation. I have had this same thing happen before, opening 15 packs after purchasing them and receiving two Nozdormu's. It has been common place, in my mind, to open packs and see similar cards. I can recall once opening 15 packs and pulling 3 Snake Traps. My primary question was where you can "cheat the odds" by logging/closing the pack session and then resuming. However, someone stated Blizzard said the contents are set upon purchase of the cards.
The coincidence makes it hard to believe that it's completely random that I would draw the same legendary two times in a pack of 15. Does no one find that odd? If it's just "one of those things" than so be it. I was just looking for conversation and opinion.
Also, that's not how you would determine a sample size. A sample size is determined based on the population. ie: If I had 75 cards (15 packs, 5 packs per card), then you would draw a sample size from the 75 (population). From there, sample size would be determined based on what sigma level/scale you're attempting to reach/use and what certainty you'll want. Generally you want to work with a 95% confidence level, so if we have a population of 75, want a 95% confidence level and a .5 confidence interval; our sample size would be 63.
No where does the OP, myself, say "bunch of cards". It was very specifically stated what the population was. You don't need to do anything enough times to get a statistically significant sample size other than increase the population you're wished to draw a sample size from. 75 is a fine population, 63 is the statistical sample size needed to determine variance and whether it's random or not.
And if you want to go non specific, you can simple say, "I received the same 2 legendary cards out of 75. That seems odd considering the random nature of it all." Again, I was never debating whether it's random or not, more so whether anyone ever encounters this same scenario and/if there was a "work around" or suggested method to break the cycle when opening packs.
No, your statement was not simply that, nor was it an simply an observation.
You said "This happens too many times to be random chance, is this a known bug?"
Odd that you drew the same legendary twice in 15 packs? Well, first off, getting two legendaries in 15 packs is already beating the odds. But anyway, there are 36 legendaries in the current set. If you do pull two legendaries, the chance of the second one being the same as the first one is 1 in 36. That's not a high probability, but it's not miniscule, either. The chance of happening to you twice in a row? Well now we're getting into 1 in 1000 territory. That is a small chance. But how many people do you think have bought 30 packs? A lot more than a thousand, let me tell you. It would be remarkable if nobody had experienced this.
If the understanding is that you're likely to get 1 legendary per 20 packs, and I received 3 in 15 packs, while 2 were the same. That is statistically unlikely yes? And wouldn't it be less of a 1 in 36 as the likelihood isn't you get 1 legendary per pack, but you have a .2% chance of pulling A legendary per pack.
So you're simply saying that, based on your figures and my scenario, that if I were to open 1000 packs; it would occur once. What I'm saying is, I've bought far less than 1000 packs (Maybe 300) and it's happened to me twice.
I found it incredibly odd, and incredibly unlikely that I should pull the same legendary twice in only 15 packs. Very lucky and very unlikely to pull 3 legendary cards in 15 packs, let alone 2 being the same. Perhaps it was a good luck kind of day
just be happy u even got 3 legs in 15 packs :P
It is certainly odd to pull two legendary within a pack of 15, that's crazy just to get 2 legendary at all in a pack of 15. You should grab a lottery ticket. No, 15 lottery tickets so you can win twice :-)
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I mean, I actually got 3 legendary in the scenario we're talking about above. Which is cool and super rare.
I probably should have played the lottery :(
Nah man, you used up all your luck in the packs, good thing you didn't waste money on the lottery ;)
-nttArc
This post made the most sense in the entire thread.
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