No, it is not a 50/50. There is a 42.86% chance that your Faerie Dragon dies. At least I think I calculated it correctly. My apologies if that is not the case.
Thats exactly right, there are 7 different outcomes (not 8, because the dragon cannot be hit 3 times) and 3 of those kill the dragon. 3/7=0.4286
EDIT: I'm obviously wrong, thanks for corrections. It's 3 out of 7 but not 3/7... oh well, easy mistake. The amount of people in this thread calling each other retards is ridiculous.
That is not right. The sequence does matter and both D-D-H and D-D-D (which can not be achieved, so after D-D it's always D-D-H, but the chance of it happening is not 1/7 but 2/8) kill the dragon. The chance of killing it is exactly 50%.
I would say it's still 50% because the outcome where the Faerie Dragon dies after 2 arcane shots is 0.25 vs. 0.125 for the others since you have 0.5*0.5 probability to have the Faerie Dragon to get hit twice in a row.
The 3 outcomes killing the Faerie Dragon:
FD, FD, Face : 0.25
Face, FD, FD: 0.125
FD, Face, FD: 0.125
You can't just sum up the probabilities of all 3 outcomes. Therefore you have to divide the outcomes which kill the dragon with all possible outcomes (DDH. DHD, HDD, HHD, HDH, DHH, HHH. DDD doesn't exist since you can't hit the dragon all 3 times).
No, it is not a 50/50. There is a 42.86% chance that your Faerie Dragon dies. At least I think I calculated it correctly. My apologies if that is not the case.
Thats exactly right, there are 7 different outcomes (not 8, because the dragon cannot be hit 3 times) and 3 of those kill the dragon. 3/7=0.4286
I would say it's still 50% because the outcome where the Faerie Dragon dies after 2 arcane shots is 0.25 vs. 0.125 for the others since you have 0.5*0.5 probability to have the Faerie Dragon to get hit twice in a row.
The 3 outcomes killing the Faerie Dragon:
FD, FD, Face : 0.25
Face, FD, FD: 0.125
FD, Face, FD: 0.125
You can't just sum up the probabilities of all 3 outcomes. Therefore you have to divide the outcomes which kill the dragon with all possible outcomes (DDH. DHD, HDD, HHD, HDH, DHH, HHH. DDD doesn't exist since you can't hit the dragon all 3 times).
Of course you can...
You cannot remove the DDD case like that it just means that DDH is twice as likely as the other outcomes...
You cannot remove the DDD case like that it just means that DDH is twice as likely as the other outcomes...
I believe that all outcomes come with same probability. DDD simply doesn't exist, why would you put it in there if it isn't possible? It's not the same as DDH and it doesn't make DDH twice as likely at all.
You cannot remove the DDD case like that it just means that DDH is twice as likely as the other outcomes...
I believe that all outcomes come with same probability. DDD simply doesn't exist, why would you put it in there if it isn't possible? It's not the same as DDH and it doesn't make DDH twice as likely at all.
Think about it! DD has a 25% chance of happening. What happens next doesn't matter...
RaddinHS and the Murloc guy ;) are correct. There is a 3/7 chance as in 43% (rounded) to kill a 2 health minion with Arcane Missiles, if it's the only one on your opponents board.
For the total math fails, here is every single combination of hits, "F" being Face, "D" being the Dragon
F, F, F F, F, D F, D, F F, D, D X D, F, D X D, D, F X D, F, F
3 out of these 7 possible combination of hits will lead to the death of the dragon (marked with X), thus the chance is 3 out of 7.
"D, D, D" does not exist, since the missiles will always hit F when D is no longer there.
Creates account just to post in this thread, calls others "Total math fails" and then totally fails at maths... The irony.
As others have pointed out with correct maths, it's a 50% chance.
For people who have trouble visualizing the math (meaning, those of you who incorrectly think it is 3/7) try looking at it this way. Imagine this as three coin flips, except all 3 flips are made before the results are shown at all. In other words suppose that the third flip is always made "just in case", then discarded if it's not needed.
Obviously if the three flips are made in advance, there are 8 outcomes and 4 result in the minion being killed. The fact that the third flip is ignored sometimes doesn't change the outcome.
2x hit + miss = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 3 = 37.5% The miss could either be the 1st, 2nd or 3rd hit of Arcane Missiles, hence the "x 3".
EDIT: Either the above or the chance is 50%, if the possibility of 3x hit (which does not happen in-game) also counts. Unfortunately, I do not happen to know a source which could give clarity about such a case.
With one FD on board and one AM in hand, using AM gives you ~43% to kill the dragon. Simple math. Out of 7 possible scenarios, 3 of them FD dies. So 3/7 = 43%.
Hello, I hope to be able to clear things up a little. First the way everyone is counting the chances of *blank* happening is a little more complicated than what it needs to be.
instead counting all three missiles together let's do the chances of each missile one by one.
1st Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
2nd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
3rd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to D ** However because there is a different scenario where the Dragon dies after the second Missile there is a third possibility of the missile hitting 100% F.
Now let's total it up and it comes to 3/7 hitting the Dragon
Now let's do the 3 health Grizzly
1st: 50% G - 50% F
2nd 50% G - 50% F
3rd 50% G - 50% F
Total these and its 3/6 hitting the Grizzly
So what does it mean. Obviously to kill a three health creature is 50% three chances each one being a 50% equals an easy answer however the question is in regards to a 2 health creature surely a 2 health minion can't have a lower chance of dieing than a 3 health minion. but surely it can't be the same.
The answer is a 57.14% chance of killing the Faerie Dragon the opposite of 3/7 but 4/7. because the dragon has a chance of dieing early adding the chance of hitting face 100% provides the difference for the 2 health in the case of it dieing early. Which to be accurate we have to account for however previously you were going the wrong way. The possibility of hitting face on the third missile improves the chances of FD dieing. Your Welcome.
50% it is. I'm not going to do any math cause there is already way too much in this thread and it gives me headache. If you don't understand it or just don't believe it then just go and try a thousand times and it will be roughly 50%...
literally just explained why its not 50%. i don't think you can do math. And this isn't really math its statistics which while its characterized as math, there are different processes in which you get answers.
The problem with this is that X does matter because it means the dragon has already died. If you have a higher probability of hitting face you have a higher probability of the dragon dieing. Am I only one on here that understands statistics...
Hello, I hope to be able to clear things up a little. First the way everyone is counting the chances of *blank* happening is a little more complicated than what it needs to be.
instead counting all three missiles together let's do the chances of each missile one by one.
1st Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
2nd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
3rd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to D ** However because there is a different scenario where the Dragon dies after the second Missile there is a third possibility of the missile hitting 100% F.
Now let's total it up and it comes to 3/7 hitting the Dragon
Now let's do the 3 health Grizzly
1st: 50% G - 50% F
2nd 50% G - 50% F
3rd 50% G - 50% F
Total these and its 3/6 hitting the Grizzly
So what does it mean. Obviously to kill a three health creature is 50% three chances each one being a 50% equals an easy answer however the question is in regards to a 2 health creature surely a 2 health minion can't have a lower chance of dieing than a 3 health minion. but surely it can't be the same.
The answer is a 57.14% chance of killing the Faerie Dragon the opposite of 3/7 but 4/7. because the dragon has a chance of dieing early adding the chance of hitting face 100% provides the difference for the 2 health in the case of it dieing early. Which to be accurate we have to account for however previously you were going the wrong way. The possibility of hitting face on the third missile improves the chances of FD dieing. Your Welcome.
*mic drop*
This is the very reason I hate math threads in this forum. The odds of killing a Grizzly with arcane missiles is far from 50%. The reason is because there's only a single outcome that leads to this result. IE: GGG. If any other outcome happens, the Grizzly lives. Here are the possible outcomes.
FFF
FFG
FGG
GGF
GFF
FGF
GFG
GGG (Grizzly dies)
As you can see, the grizzly only dies in 1 of those scenarios. a 1/8 or 12.5% chance to die. Certainly not 50%. Ugh people, this isn't rocket science, this is 3rd grade math.
literally just explained why its not 50%. i don't think you can do math. And this isn't really math its statistics which while its characterized as math, there are different processes in which you get answers.
You have so many people explaining why you are wrong.
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it will not necessarily die to Arcane Missiles. It's a 50/50, assuming that Faerie Dragon is the only minion on the board.
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Thats exactly right, there are 7 different outcomes (not 8, because the dragon cannot be hit 3 times) and 3 of those kill the dragon. 3/7=0.4286
EDIT: I'm obviously wrong, thanks for corrections. It's 3 out of 7 but not 3/7... oh well, easy mistake. The amount of people in this thread calling each other retards is ridiculous.
That is not right. The sequence does matter and both D-D-H and D-D-D (which can not be achieved, so after D-D it's always D-D-H, but the chance of it happening is not 1/7 but 2/8) kill the dragon. The chance of killing it is exactly 50%.
You can't just sum up the probabilities of all 3 outcomes. Therefore you have to divide the outcomes which kill the dragon with all possible outcomes (DDH. DHD, HDD, HHD, HDH, DHH, HHH. DDD doesn't exist since you can't hit the dragon all 3 times).
This is
Of course you can...
You cannot remove the DDD case like that it just means that DDH is twice as likely as the other outcomes...
I believe that all outcomes come with same probability. DDD simply doesn't exist, why would you put it in there if it isn't possible? It's not the same as DDH and it doesn't make DDH twice as likely at all.
Think about it! DD has a 25% chance of happening. What happens next doesn't matter...
Yes, it really is 50% chance of the dragon dying.
Creates account just to post in this thread, calls others "Total math fails" and then totally fails at maths... The irony.
As others have pointed out with correct maths, it's a 50% chance.
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For people who have trouble visualizing the math (meaning, those of you who incorrectly think it is 3/7) try looking at it this way. Imagine this as three coin flips, except all 3 flips are made before the results are shown at all. In other words suppose that the third flip is always made "just in case", then discarded if it's not needed.
Obviously if the three flips are made in advance, there are 8 outcomes and 4 result in the minion being killed. The fact that the third flip is ignored sometimes doesn't change the outcome.
splitting the other thread to prevent off-topic derailment
2x hit + miss = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 3 = 37.5%
The miss could either be the 1st, 2nd or 3rd hit of Arcane Missiles, hence the "x 3".
EDIT:
Either the above or the chance is 50%, if the possibility of 3x hit (which does not happen in-game) also counts. Unfortunately, I do not happen to know a source which could give clarity about such a case.
With one FD on board and one AM in hand, using AM gives you ~43% to kill the dragon. Simple math. Out of 7 possible scenarios, 3 of them FD dies. So 3/7 = 43%.
Hello, I hope to be able to clear things up a little. First the way everyone is counting the chances of *blank* happening is a little more complicated than what it needs to be.
Arcane Missiles is comprised of 3 missiles. Faerie Dragon is comprised of two health, I will be doing a secondary comparison using Ironfur Grizzly
instead counting all three missiles together let's do the chances of each missile one by one.
1st Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
2nd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to hit D
3rd Missile: 50% to hit F - 50% to D ** However because there is a different scenario where the Dragon dies after the second Missile there is a third possibility of the missile hitting 100% F.
Now let's total it up and it comes to 3/7 hitting the Dragon
Now let's do the 3 health Grizzly
1st: 50% G - 50% F
2nd 50% G - 50% F
3rd 50% G - 50% F
Total these and its 3/6 hitting the Grizzly
So what does it mean. Obviously to kill a three health creature is 50% three chances each one being a 50% equals an easy answer however the question is in regards to a 2 health creature surely a 2 health minion can't have a lower chance of dieing than a 3 health minion. but surely it can't be the same.
The answer is a 57.14% chance of killing the Faerie Dragon the opposite of 3/7 but 4/7. because the dragon has a chance of dieing early adding the chance of hitting face 100% provides the difference for the 2 health in the case of it dieing early. Which to be accurate we have to account for however previously you were going the wrong way. The possibility of hitting face on the third missile improves the chances of FD dieing. Your Welcome.
*mic drop*
50% it is. I'm not going to do any math cause there is already way too much in this thread and it gives me headache. If you don't understand it or just don't believe it then just go and try a thousand times and it will be roughly 50%...
uM0p3p!sddn
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According to Bayes:
D: dragon
F: face
X: doesn't mater
DDX (DDF) - 0.5 * 0.5 * 1
DFD - 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5
DFF
FDD - 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5
FDF
FFX (FFD/FFF)
P(dragon die) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 1 + 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 = 0.5
literally just explained why its not 50%. i don't think you can do math. And this isn't really math its statistics which while its characterized as math, there are different processes in which you get answers.
The problem with this is that X does matter because it means the dragon has already died. If you have a higher probability of hitting face you have a higher probability of the dragon dieing. Am I only one on here that understands statistics...
This is the very reason I hate math threads in this forum. The odds of killing a Grizzly with arcane missiles is far from 50%. The reason is because there's only a single outcome that leads to this result. IE: GGG. If any other outcome happens, the Grizzly lives. Here are the possible outcomes.
As you can see, the grizzly only dies in 1 of those scenarios. a 1/8 or 12.5% chance to die. Certainly not 50%. Ugh people, this isn't rocket science, this is 3rd grade math.
You have so many people explaining why you are wrong.
The first time someone calls you a horse, you call him a jerk. The second time someone calls you a horse, you punch him in the nose. The third time someone calls you a horse... Well, maybe it's time to start shopping for a saddle.
Unbowed. Unbent. Unbroken.