I posted this on reddit, but somebody said I should post here as well:
I was looking for a way to quickly get a feel for some decks I was working on in the deck builder. Back when I used to play MtG I would shuffle the deck I was building and deal out a starting hand and then play out a few turns by myself to check that the tempo and mana curve of the deck was what I was aiming for.
I decided to make something similar for Hearthstone last week and just got the OK from HearthPwn to post it publicly (I used their card images since I had them available). Hopefully other people find it useful as well:
I just replaced 2 Dread infernals, and then i drew 2 Dread infernals. From a blue post that should nok be possible, as the replaced cards are put a side until after mulligan and then shuffled back in the deck. Can this be fixed?
I just replaced 2 Dread infernals, and then i drew 2 Dread infernals. From a blue post that should nok be possible, as the replaced cards are put a side until after mulligan and then shuffled back in the deck. Can this be fixed?
Wow, the odds of that happening are super low! You're right, though, I need to fix this and will do so when I get a chance.
I just replaced 2 Dread infernals, and then i drew 2 Dread infernals. From a blue post that should nok be possible, as the replaced cards are put a side until after mulligan and then shuffled back in the deck. Can this be fixed?
Wow, the odds of that happening are super low! You're right, though, I need to fix this and will do so when I get a chance.
I apologize for this, but the nerd in me has to say that the odds of that redraw were the same as for any other redraw combination :P. Lovely tool. Thanks for your work.
For a normal 30 card deck, the odds of redrawing a card you mulligan are much lower than drawing a new card. Consider the worst case of replacing all 4 starting cards as player 2: of the 30 cards you could draw, 26/30 are new cards (~87%) and only 4/30 are cards you just mulligan-ed (~13%). The odds, then, of drawing two cards you just shuffled back into the deck are even lower.
In any case, I just updated the tool to fix this issue. You can easily test the fix with a very small deck (the tool doesn't actually care that you have a 30 card deck). Note, though, that the final card drawn at the start of your first turn still could be one of the mulligan-ed cards since it's just a normal draw at the start of the turn after the old cards have been replaced and the deck has been reshuffled. (The tester moves right into the first turn draw after replacing cards, so you can't really tell that they are separate actions).
If anyone finds other problems or has suggestions for the tool, please let me know! :)
This is awesome ! :) Thank you, I really needed something like that.
If it's easy to add - could you show somewhere number of max mana crystal player has ? It will be increasing every turn and there could be some button to increase by player if cards add it. Thanks in advance.
The tool should be updated with the latest cards now.
Unfortunately, there is no logical mapping between card ID and the image URLs used by the tool, so I have to re-scrape the HearthPwn card database whenever there are updates and it took me a while to get around to messing with that again as I've been busy with other work recently.
Hmm what about cards like Captain's Parrot and Sense Demons can you make it possible to open your whole deck and put cards from it in your hand?
I also found out that the card base is not the same as in hearthpwn. Spitful Smith is still the Dark summoner.
Great little tool. Played around with it for the build I submitted for the Priest deck contest and found out I needed to make a couple of changes. I was then able to pit my deck against another deck in different window while trying as best as I could to follow the rules. I did run into some problems like the one above where having some way to do that would be nice. I also had Ysera in my deck and having a way to get dream cards into the mix would be great as well.
I just replaced 2 Dread infernals, and then i drew 2 Dread infernals. From a blue post that should nok be possible, as the replaced cards are put a side until after mulligan and then shuffled back in the deck. Can this be fixed?
Wow, the odds of that happening are super low! You're right, though, I need to fix this and will do so when I get a chance.
I apologize for this, but the nerd in me has to say that the odds of that redraw were the same as for any other redraw combination :P. Lovely tool. Thanks for your work.
For a normal 30 card deck, the odds of redrawing a card you mulligan are much lower than drawing a new card. Consider the worst case of replacing all 4 starting cards as player 2: of the 30 cards you could draw, 26/30 are new cards (~87%) and only 4/30 are cards you just mulligan-ed (~13%). The odds, then, of drawing two cards you just shuffled back into the deck are even lower.
In any case, I just updated the tool to fix this issue. You can easily test the fix with a very small deck (the tool doesn't actually care that you have a 30 card deck). Note, though, that the final card drawn at the start of your first turn still could be one of the mulligan-ed cards since it's just a normal draw at the start of the turn after the old cards have been replaced and the deck has been reshuffled. (The tester moves right into the first turn draw after replacing cards, so you can't really tell that they are separate actions).
If anyone finds other problems or has suggestions for the tool, please let me know! :)
The odds of drawing exactly the same hand has a few possibilities.
Accounting for doubles of each card the probability of drawing the same hand is: (8/30)*(6/29)*(4/28)*(2/27) * 100= 0.05%. Where (8/30) is chance to draw one of the 4 cards sense order would not matter, (6/29) chance to draw one of the 3 cards, (4/28) chance to draw one of the two, (2/27) chance to draw the final card.
This is even worse with no doubles as every value is halved (8->4, 6->3, etc) so it would be .025%.
The infernal problem of drawing them both again would be (2/28)*(1/27) *100 = 0.53% which is still very low.
Pretty sure, unfortunately, all that math is wrong.
I'm 99% sure that blues said that the way mulligans work: Card is removed, new card is drawn, card is added back to deck and reshuffled.Thus it's actually impossible to draw the 'same' card twice, and if you mulligan two duplicates (and there are only 2 in deck, aka not arena) then it will be impossible to draw them again as part of the opening hand.
When you mulligan your cards, you do not have a chance to draw the cards you are mulliganing (is that even a word?) again. They are set aside, you draw your new cards, then the mulliganed cards will go back in your deck.
The only thing to be careful of mulligan is that you can draw a duplicate version of the card. IE if you have two fireballs in your deck, draw one, mulligan it, you can draw the 2nd one.
Yes I know that there was a blue post saying that it is impossible to get the same hand/draw a mulligan card. They were talking about the deck simulator which wasn't taking that fact into account. Based on said math I wouldn't put the development time into adding the feature unless the change was trivial. Which it might be, the easiest way to do that would be to draw the number of mulligan-ed cards before putting the cards back into the deck to be shuffled.
If you have duplicates of every card you mulligan the chance to get the same hand still stands at 0.25% assuming you mulligan every card.
I posted this on reddit, but somebody said I should post here as well:
Here's an example with the Miracle Rogue deck. (You can also use it with decks created in the Forge.)
Tools: Hearth Log | Deck Tester | Mana Curve Visualizer
this is amazing thank you! :D
Let me change your mind
Really nice, GJ :)
I just replaced 2 Dread infernals, and then i drew 2 Dread infernals. From a blue post that should nok be possible, as the replaced cards are put a side until after mulligan and then shuffled back in the deck. Can this be fixed?
I have had "this" for a long time from the main forum but i guess it doesn't hurt
Wow, the odds of that happening are super low! You're right, though, I need to fix this and will do so when I get a chance.
Tools: Hearth Log | Deck Tester | Mana Curve Visualizer
For a normal 30 card deck, the odds of redrawing a card you mulligan are much lower than drawing a new card. Consider the worst case of replacing all 4 starting cards as player 2: of the 30 cards you could draw, 26/30 are new cards (~87%) and only 4/30 are cards you just mulligan-ed (~13%). The odds, then, of drawing two cards you just shuffled back into the deck are even lower.
In any case, I just updated the tool to fix this issue. You can easily test the fix with a very small deck (the tool doesn't actually care that you have a 30 card deck). Note, though, that the final card drawn at the start of your first turn still could be one of the mulligan-ed cards since it's just a normal draw at the start of the turn after the old cards have been replaced and the deck has been reshuffled. (The tester moves right into the first turn draw after replacing cards, so you can't really tell that they are separate actions).
If anyone finds other problems or has suggestions for the tool, please let me know! :)
Tools: Hearth Log | Deck Tester | Mana Curve Visualizer
Great thx!
Yeah i know about the first round Draw, but none of the dread infernals were the last Card :)
Could you update the cards :)
This is awesome ! :) Thank you, I really needed something like that.
If it's easy to add - could you show somewhere number of max mana crystal player has ?
It will be increasing every turn and there could be some button to increase by player if cards add it. Thanks in advance.
The tool should be updated with the latest cards now.
Unfortunately, there is no logical mapping between card ID and the image URLs used by the tool, so I have to re-scrape the HearthPwn card database whenever there are updates and it took me a while to get around to messing with that again as I've been busy with other work recently.
Tools: Hearth Log | Deck Tester | Mana Curve Visualizer
Great little tool. Played around with it for the build I submitted for the Priest deck contest and found out I needed to make a couple of changes. I was then able to pit my deck against another deck in different window while trying as best as I could to follow the rules. I did run into some problems like the one above where having some way to do that would be nice. I also had Ysera in my deck and having a way to get dream cards into the mix would be great as well.
This is great, thank you!
The odds of drawing exactly the same hand has a few possibilities.
Accounting for doubles of each card the probability of drawing the same hand is: (8/30)*(6/29)*(4/28)*(2/27) * 100= 0.05%. Where (8/30) is chance to draw one of the 4 cards sense order would not matter, (6/29) chance to draw one of the 3 cards, (4/28) chance to draw one of the two, (2/27) chance to draw the final card.
This is even worse with no doubles as every value is halved (8->4, 6->3, etc) so it would be .025%.
The infernal problem of drawing them both again would be (2/28)*(1/27) *100 = 0.53% which is still very low.
Pretty sure, unfortunately, all that math is wrong.
I'm 99% sure that blues said that the way mulligans work: Card is removed, new card is drawn, card is added back to deck and reshuffled.Thus it's actually impossible to draw the 'same' card twice, and if you mulligan two duplicates (and there are only 2 in deck, aka not arena) then it will be impossible to draw them again as part of the opening hand.
I'll look for the blue post.
Edit: blue confirmation:
http://us.battle.net/hearthstone/en/forum/topic/9309381395?page=1#12
The only thing to be careful of mulligan is that you can draw a duplicate version of the card. IE if you have two fireballs in your deck, draw one, mulligan it, you can draw the 2nd one.
Yes I know that there was a blue post saying that it is impossible to get the same hand/draw a mulligan card. They were talking about the deck simulator which wasn't taking that fact into account. Based on said math I wouldn't put the development time into adding the feature unless the change was trivial. Which it might be, the easiest way to do that would be to draw the number of mulligan-ed cards before putting the cards back into the deck to be shuffled.
If you have duplicates of every card you mulligan the chance to get the same hand still stands at 0.25% assuming you mulligan every card.
If anyone is looking for a simulation tool that provides a deck win rate across simulating many games, check out:
https://www.testadeck.com/index/
It's a great way to baseline a deck to see what a potential win rate could be for a deck