This is a pure list of what chances you have to draw a minion of each cost using this card. Since Unstable Portal can pull any collectible minion from any set, there are 423 possible cards that you can get from this.
This is how they break down and their percentage chance that you could draw a card of this given mana value...
0 Mana / 2 Minions / .47% chance to draw
1 Mana / 34 Mionions / 8.03%
2 Mana / 61 Minions / 14.42%
3 Mana / 61 Minions / 14.42%
4 Mana / 47 Minions / 11.11%
5 Mana / 46 Minions / 10.87%
6 Mana / 33 Minions / 7.80%
7 Mana / 16 Minions / 3.78%
8 Mana / 10 Minions / 2.36%
9 Mana / 9 Minions / 2.12%
10 Mana / 2 Minions / 0.47%
12 Mana / 2 Minions / 0.47%
20 Mana / 1 Minion / 0.23%
That means that the it's about a 50/50 chance that you will pull a card of mana value 4 or less, versus a card 5 or more. In general the value of this card really shines when you do pull a card that's 3 or more mana. You will pull a 2, 1 or 0 drop only about 23% of the time. Obviously there are some excellent 2 drops that could end up winning you the game, or higher cards that are completely dead, but this just gives you a general idea of what to expect when casting this spell.
I think you should do this with rarity of the cards. There is a lot of legendarys in %, and i think, all of them is worth drawing, because their reduced cost.
Well Millhouse is potentially a terrible pick, Cho and Pagle can be quite bad too, besides that though they are mostly good. Obviously the ideal situation is that you cast this on 3, and then on turn 4 you play a 7 drop or coin an 8, but that being said one of the giants would be interesting to get. I won't do it for all the rarities, but the legendary one is quite simple.
Before GvG there were 42 Legendary cards. They added 20 in this expansion so therefore your chances to pull a legendary are 14.65%
One other thing of note about this card is the value. If you look at the card you get in a vacume, the value you are getting is tremendous because even if you take a bad card for a mage (for example Captain Greenskin) it's still only 2 mana for a 5/4. Obviously Millhouse, Cho and several other cards may not even be worth playing at all, even at reduced cost, but for the most part the card you are getting is extreme value, even a 1 drop that is now free is still good value. Obviously if you are unlucky enough to get a Whisp or a Target Dummy, then you got completely screwed.
Now if you look at Unstable Portal as simply "draw a card" you would immediately say that it costs way too much mana. We know from Arcane Intellect that you basically pay 1.5/card and you are guaranteed something that is in your deck while this is totally random. But if you combine these last 2 thoughts, then unless you get one of the two zero cost minions or maybe a 1, this card has probably "paid" for itself.
And obviously the times where you played this card and get a whisp will be balanced by when you pull a ysera, or a cairne etc.
I really don't see this getting much play in ranked, at least after the meta settles into its groove.
Sure, it's fun as hell, but it's basically impossible to synergize with one of 423 random cards.
But in arena, where it'll often be the best choice of the 3 cards presented... chaos!
I'm not sure I agree about the ranked part. Because this card is similar to playing the lottery. According to my numbers, you have about a 40% to get a 2, 1 or 0 drop in which case, this card slowed you down which is never good, but you can play almost anything you get in this case immediately.
However, you could get...say a Jaraxxus or a Ragnaros and that alone might win you the game. On average this card does pay for itself, but it's risky.
I really don't see this getting much play in ranked, at least after the meta settles into its groove.
Sure, it's fun as hell, but it's basically impossible to synergize with one of 423 random cards.
But in arena, where it'll often be the best choice of the 3 cards presented... chaos!
I'm not sure I agree about the ranked part. Because this card is similar to playing the lottery. According to my numbers, you have about a 40% to get a 2, 1 or 0 drop in which case, this card slowed you down which is never good, but you can play almost anything you get in this case immediately.
However, you could get...say a Jaraxxus or a Ragnaros and that alone might win you the game. On average this card does pay for itself, but it's risky.
I have zero doubts about your numbers. I'm just saying constructed (particularly ranked) play prioritizes card synergy and predictable results over high risk/high reward possibilities. In fact, the ability to anticipate results and minimize the impact of inherent RNG is seen as the hallmark of a great player.
I agree with all you just said, but with all the randomness coming in this expansion, I feel like there will be more risk/reward choices in deck design.
This is a pure list of what chances you have to draw a minion of each cost using this card. Since Unstable Portal can pull any collectible minion from any set, there are 423 possible cards that you can get from this.
This is how they break down and their percentage chance that you could draw a card of this given mana value...
0 Mana / 2 Minions / .47% chance to draw
1 Mana / 34 Mionions / 8.03%
2 Mana / 61 Minions / 14.42%
3 Mana / 61 Minions / 14.42%
4 Mana / 47 Minions / 11.11%
5 Mana / 46 Minions / 10.87%
6 Mana / 33 Minions / 7.80%
7 Mana / 16 Minions / 3.78%
8 Mana / 10 Minions / 2.36%
9 Mana / 9 Minions / 2.12%
10 Mana / 2 Minions / 0.47%
12 Mana / 2 Minions / 0.47%
20 Mana / 1 Minion / 0.23%
That means that the it's about a 50/50 chance that you will pull a card of mana value 4 or less, versus a card 5 or more. In general the value of this card really shines when you do pull a card that's 3 or more mana. You will pull a 2, 1 or 0 drop only about 23% of the time. Obviously there are some excellent 2 drops that could end up winning you the game, or higher cards that are completely dead, but this just gives you a general idea of what to expect when casting this spell.
Wait, Unstable Portal doesn't pull from the deck?
The only (small) upside of drawing a 0-3 mana card is that is can be played right away, no extra cost.
Thx for the breakdown btw!
"Everyone! Get in here!"
it's complete random like webspinner, but all minions, i got Gelbin Mekkatorque, Pit Lord and Dunemaul Shaman with it
Nope. I've played it 3 times in arena: Deathwing, Loatheb, and Razorfen Hunter. None of those are in my deck.
Okay then, that's a lot different than how I read it. I thought it was just a cheaper Far Sight before.
Thanks for you work jp.
An opponent playing mage pulled a Cobalt Guardian... didn't get them far with their board position.
Thank you for the list. Although there are some bad 4+ drops you can get (Jeeves, etc.) it's nice to know the odds.
Thanks for the good work. That card looks like it will be a blast!
"Yes, finally I can test Unstable Portal!" Get Secretkeeper...
This is how my first encounter with the card went...
I'm getting pretty good drops with it. Used it 3 times so far, got an Acolyte, Neptulon, and Edwin van Cleef.
The Neptulon was picked up at a very good time too, top-decking against a Druid.
Behold, the Might of Stormwind!
Aaaaaand just got a Mukla too. Mostly Legendary drops so far!
Behold, the Might of Stormwind!
Well Millhouse is potentially a terrible pick, Cho and Pagle can be quite bad too, besides that though they are mostly good. Obviously the ideal situation is that you cast this on 3, and then on turn 4 you play a 7 drop or coin an 8, but that being said one of the giants would be interesting to get. I won't do it for all the rarities, but the legendary one is quite simple.
Before GvG there were 42 Legendary cards. They added 20 in this expansion so therefore your chances to pull a legendary are 14.65%
One other thing of note about this card is the value. If you look at the card you get in a vacume, the value you are getting is tremendous because even if you take a bad card for a mage (for example Captain Greenskin) it's still only 2 mana for a 5/4. Obviously Millhouse, Cho and several other cards may not even be worth playing at all, even at reduced cost, but for the most part the card you are getting is extreme value, even a 1 drop that is now free is still good value. Obviously if you are unlucky enough to get a Whisp or a Target Dummy, then you got completely screwed.
Now if you look at Unstable Portal as simply "draw a card" you would immediately say that it costs way too much mana. We know from Arcane Intellect that you basically pay 1.5/card and you are guaranteed something that is in your deck while this is totally random. But if you combine these last 2 thoughts, then unless you get one of the two zero cost minions or maybe a 1, this card has probably "paid" for itself.
And obviously the times where you played this card and get a whisp will be balanced by when you pull a ysera, or a cairne etc.
I really don't see this getting much play in ranked, at least after the meta settles into its groove.
Sure, it's fun as hell, but it's basically impossible to synergize with one of 423 random cards.
But in arena, where it'll often be the best choice of the 3 cards presented... chaos!
Feel free to add me if you play on NA! iMPose#1429
I'm not sure I agree about the ranked part. Because this card is similar to playing the lottery. According to my numbers, you have about a 40% to get a 2, 1 or 0 drop in which case, this card slowed you down which is never good, but you can play almost anything you get in this case immediately.
However, you could get...say a Jaraxxus or a Ragnaros and that alone might win you the game. On average this card does pay for itself, but it's risky.
I have zero doubts about your numbers. I'm just saying constructed (particularly ranked) play prioritizes card synergy and predictable results over high risk/high reward possibilities. In fact, the ability to anticipate results and minimize the impact of inherent RNG is seen as the hallmark of a great player.
Feel free to add me if you play on NA! iMPose#1429
I agree with all you just said, but with all the randomness coming in this expansion, I feel like there will be more risk/reward choices in deck design.
How come it went from 23% to 40% of having 2-1 or 0 drops?
xSnP