Everything is a set up. People who buy most packs are favoured by Blizzard and they get best mulligans possible. Be careful who you trust, they are already on my tail you didn't hear this from me. Shhh!
I did play a match yesterday that "statistically speaking" just about blew my mind. Everyone talks alot about Raza priest always having their cards on curve. Well, my opponent took that one step further.
He drew Kaza on turn 4, drew Raza on turn 5, and drew Anduin on turn 8. .... not just played them exactly on curve, but drew each of them exactly on curve.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I wanna glide down, over Mulholland I wanna write her, name in the sky I wanna free fall, out into nothin' Gonna leave this, world for awhile
Sometimes it feels that way! I will say I do think the mulliganed cards get shuffled back. If I'm remembering correctly I have redrawn singletons before. This makes sense because otherwise it would be a bottom of the deck mechanic, and we know that doesn't happen.
I would actually argue that mulligans seem to favor your starting cards more often than not. Think back to pirate warrior ... how often does your opponent open with N'zoth's First Mate? Maybe 1 time in 3 at least? Yet, theoretically, he should only have a:
2 out of 30 chance for card 1; 2 out of 29 for card 2; so on ... I'm not totally sure how that works out with 5 starting cards, but it's not a 33% chance, mathematically.
Or murloc pally opening with vilefin and following with rockpool hunter ... the list goes on. I've seen really good curve mulligans at least as often as really bad ones, and it seems like they are more common. But this is not exactly what I would call scientific. Someone who has taken a statistics class more recently should weigh in.
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Really, this is the same problem as with "not random draws". Without an objective third party to observe the results of mulligans and calculate the odds, it cannot be determined that mulligans are not completely random. You would an extremely large sample size, at least 10,000 games with the exact same deck, with various different players. Ask any poker player or mathematician, without someone who doesn't have a personal stake in the game to analyze the results, all of this speculation is null and void, and is an issue of psychology, not mathematics. And just to note, no, I am not a Blizzard dev, and yes, I play the game and have witnessed strange amounts of low chance mulligans.
I would actually argue that mulligans seem to favor your starting cards more often than not. Think back to pirate warrior ... how often does your opponent open with N'zoth's First Mate? Maybe 1 time in 3 at least? Yet, theoretically, he should only have a:
2 out of 30 chance for card 1; 2 out of 29 for card 2; so on ... I'm not totally sure how that works out with 5 starting cards, but it's not a 33% chance, mathematically.
Or murloc pally opening with vilefin and following with rockpool hunter ... the list goes on. I've seen really good curve mulligans at least as often as really bad ones, and it seems like they are more common. But this is not exactly what I would call scientific. Someone who has taken a statistics class more recently should weigh in.
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Going first, if you hard mulligan you will see 7 cards total by turn 1.
Looking for a specific card with two copies, likelihood of having at least 1 for turn 1 is...
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Going first, if you hard mulligan you will see 7 cards total by turn 1.
Looking for a specific card with two copies, likelihood of having at least 1 for turn 1 is...
Only if you can't redraw the cards that get thrown back in. I think the correct way would be to combine the probability of getting it in 3 tries with the probability of getting it in 4 tries, as two separate trials, both from a stock of 30 cards. I'm not quite sure the math for that. Been too long since statistics and probability classes. If you mulligan all 3 starting cards, they go back in and can be drawn again. So it's two separate trials of 3 and 4, not one trial of 7.
Well, if I'm doing it right, the probability of getting no First Mate in the first 3 cards is 80.7%. Probability of no First Mate in next 4 cards is 74.7%. Multiply those together, the probability of no First Mate in all those 7 cards comes out as 61% (rounded). So only slightly lower than your calculation.
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Going first, if you hard mulligan you will see 7 cards total by turn 1.
Looking for a specific card with two copies, likelihood of having at least 1 for turn 1 is...
Only if you can't redraw the cards that get thrown back in. I think the correct way would be to combine the probability of getting it in 3 tries with the probability of getting it in 4 tries, as two separate trials, both from a stock of 30 cards. I'm not quite sure the math for that. Been too long since statistics and probability classes. If you mulligan all 3 starting cards, they go back in and can be drawn again. So it's two separate trials of 3 and 4, not one trial of 7.
Well, if I'm doing it right, the probability of getting no First Mate in the first 3 cards is 80.7%. Probability of no First Mate in next 4 cards is 74.7%. Multiply those together, the probability of no First Mate in all those 7 cards comes out as 61% (rounded). So only slightly lower than your calculation.
You cannot redraw cards that are thrown back in.*
Actually the 7th card can be since its the turn one draw and not technically part of the mulligan. One sample of 6 and one of 1.
Decks have synergies, it's a common thing to draw a "partner" and it's human thing to remember correlated things more than non-correlated ones, which you just don't think about. The conclusions you are making are not true, just keep throwing away cards you don't want in first few turns. If you have very bad hand in most of your games, that would mean that you should think more about mulliganing as a skill and a thing to learn, which is unique for every deck. If you want to check some stats on various decks, check out www.hsreplay.net
There are mulligan win ratios for many decks there, so you can decide which card is ok to keep in hand and get used to it before you won't need it anymore.
This disclaimer Will cleanse any sense of innuendo or sarcasm From the comments that might actually make you think And will also insult your intelligence at the same time. So, if it sounds sarcastic, don't take it seriously. If it sounds dangerous, Do not try this at home or at all. And if it offends you, just don't read it.
Actually the 7th card can be since its the turn one draw and not technically part of the mulligan. One sample of 6 and one of 1.
So we're both wrong.
I know people say you can't redraw what you throw back ... but I've redrawn things that only have one copy in the deck. So that's just the reality. It's happened to me.
I would actually argue that mulligans seem to favor your starting cards more often than not. Think back to pirate warrior ... how often does your opponent open with N'zoth's First Mate? Maybe 1 time in 3 at least? Yet, theoretically, he should only have a:
2 out of 30 chance for card 1; 2 out of 29 for card 2; so on ... I'm not totally sure how that works out with 5 starting cards, but it's not a 33% chance, mathematically.
Or murloc pally opening with vilefin and following with rockpool hunter ... the list goes on. I've seen really good curve mulligans at least as often as really bad ones, and it seems like they are more common. But this is not exactly what I would call scientific. Someone who has taken a statistics class more recently should weigh in.
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Ok looks like you fixed ur mind math there lol, mulligans are very complex to calculate. But the OP doesn’t realize that you still have a chance to draw cards you shuffle back in with mull. Mulls don’t guarantee that you don’t draw back the card you put back (ie If I keep 1 prep in NYC opener and mulligan the other one I can still replace the prep with itself). So to answer op’s question - yes they are random. 100%.
Null hypothesis for the nerds out there: any deviation from the expected value is due to chance and chance alone
Why is it that when ever someone starts a reasonable discussion, some fool has to say this. Like don't get involved in it, if you do not want to hear about the topic.
Salt thread is meant for demonstration of frustration, by complaining and swearing, basically letting off steam, not discussion.
So look at the question before trying redirect them.
You have 30 cards, 15 pairs, you draw 3, two are good for a starting hand, one is trash.
You throw the trash, and without a seconds hesitation you draw the partner of the card you threw back.
The card thrown away, is this included back in the deck of 28 so you could draw one of either again?
Since the ktf release, more and more I draw the card or cards that I throw, is this the gamblers belief that the gods are against me?
I now only throw anything back if I have no card to play the first couple of turns. I might even start to keep a check on this.
Thoughts?
Mulligans were nerfed in the last patch.
Everything is a set up. People who buy most packs are favoured by Blizzard and they get best mulligans possible. Be careful who you trust, they are already on my tail you didn't hear this from me. Shhh!
Bitch i'm Willy Wonka!
I did play a match yesterday that "statistically speaking" just about blew my mind. Everyone talks alot about Raza priest always having their cards on curve. Well, my opponent took that one step further.
He drew Kaza on turn 4, drew Raza on turn 5, and drew Anduin on turn 8. .... not just played them exactly on curve, but drew each of them exactly on curve.
I wanna glide down, over Mulholland
I wanna write her, name in the sky
I wanna free fall, out into nothin'
Gonna leave this, world for awhile
Aaaaand here, im drawing patches everytime and keleseth is always in bottom of my deck!
Sometimes it feels that way! I will say I do think the mulliganed cards get shuffled back. If I'm remembering correctly I have redrawn singletons before. This makes sense because otherwise it would be a bottom of the deck mechanic, and we know that doesn't happen.
I want a new title, but Flux won't let me have one,
http://www.hearthpwn.com/decks/944413-rank-4-control-mage-lets-pray-for-a-priestless jaina likes the bottom of my deck
We give too many people the power to lower our vibrations, stand true to your own frequency.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE
I would actually argue that mulligans seem to favor your starting cards more often than not. Think back to pirate warrior ... how often does your opponent open with N'zoth's First Mate? Maybe 1 time in 3 at least? Yet, theoretically, he should only have a:
2 out of 30 chance for card 1; 2 out of 29 for card 2; so on ... I'm not totally sure how that works out with 5 starting cards, but it's not a 33% chance, mathematically.
Or murloc pally opening with vilefin and following with rockpool hunter ... the list goes on. I've seen really good curve mulligans at least as often as really bad ones, and it seems like they are more common. But this is not exactly what I would call scientific. Someone who has taken a statistics class more recently should weigh in.
Edit: Ok, I found the function to calculate mulligan chances in Excel. Yes, there is a function to calculate random card draw. Turns out the probability of drawing one N'zoth's First Mate if there are two in the deck and you go second is .. 28%. So yeah, that about matches my experiences actually, as 28% is more than 1 in 4 and less than 1 in 3.
Really, this is the same problem as with "not random draws". Without an objective third party to observe the results of mulligans and calculate the odds, it cannot be determined that mulligans are not completely random. You would an extremely large sample size, at least 10,000 games with the exact same deck, with various different players. Ask any poker player or mathematician, without someone who doesn't have a personal stake in the game to analyze the results, all of this speculation is null and void, and is an issue of psychology, not mathematics. And just to note, no, I am not a Blizzard dev, and yes, I play the game and have witnessed strange amounts of low chance mulligans.
Anger is the punishment we give ourselves for someone else's mistake.
Anger is the punishment we give ourselves for someone else's mistake.
Decks have synergies, it's a common thing to draw a "partner" and it's human thing to remember correlated things more than non-correlated ones, which you just don't think about. The conclusions you are making are not true, just keep throwing away cards you don't want in first few turns. If you have very bad hand in most of your games, that would mean that you should think more about mulliganing as a skill and a thing to learn, which is unique for every deck. If you want to check some stats on various decks, check out www.hsreplay.net
There are mulligan win ratios for many decks there, so you can decide which card is ok to keep in hand and get used to it before you won't need it anymore.
f2p btw
Obligatory tinfoil hat comment
This disclaimer
Will cleanse any sense of innuendo or sarcasm
From the comments that might actually make you think
And will also insult your intelligence at the same time.
So, if it sounds sarcastic, don't take it seriously.
If it sounds dangerous,
Do not try this at home or at all.
And if it offends you, just don't read it.
Rogue Deckbuilder. Midrange/Combo player.
It's all confirmation bias.