Hearthpwn

Hearthpwn User - BobMM

Real world results

tldr? I tracked my results with this deck. 65 games, 60% win rate, average game 8m20, Rank 14->5 (going for Legend next month). This deck is a lot of fun to play. Previously, my best rank (ever) was 12. Yah, 12. Oh, so I'm new? Uh...  well, I've been playing since before Naxx..... sooooo.... I am by no means a great player. But I have become a much better player from using this deck. Which btw, does really require a lot of thought. No facerolling the keyboard to victory here. Now just read the bolded parts of the last few sentences! Ha ha. See, good stuff. Keep reading.

First, I tip my hat to you, Wax. Thanks for several great deck guides. I loved this one so much, I've built the zoo and pally one as well and plan to try them later (in Casual mode, one at a time). Those of you saying, "I played 3 games and went 0-3, this deck sucks" - I was once like you, blind. But now I see. Read on, that you may see too!

I was stuck at rank 12-14. I often wondered if this game was more about luck than skill, or having legendaries. I would go up and down the ranks like a roller coaster, and I wondered how anyone could ever get better ranks without tons of legendaries(my cards suck). Clearly, there are good players that win by skill (see Trump take F2P decks to Legendary), but that sure ain't me! So after reading about this deck, I thought, why not. It was budget, and I only had to craft one or two cards. I dropped my old decks and started using this one. 

Previously, I could not crack Rank 12 or 13 for the life of me, and I always felt it was my deck that was bad, or I didn't have good enough cards, or I kept being matched up against my absolute worst counters, etc. I've been playing very casually for quite some time, mostly Arenas because I told myself that there everyone had an equal chance of cards. In Ranked play, I would get pissed off when people would play a Dr. Boom and I would play a Leper Gnome. When you lose after that, you get this nagging feeling that the legendary beat you, and if only you had XXX card(s)... Plus, although I liked Ranked play, I just could not get past Rank 12 or 13, and that seemed to be where my skill level and decks were keeping me. Hence why I stumbled on this deck in the first place. Aha! A "good" deck I can finally take to victory!

After adopting this deck, I initially had a great winning streak and got down to Rank 10! Big news for me. Yes, only down 2 or 3 ranks, but that was a big deal for me. I had played over 500 games in Ranked, never going below Rank 12 or 13. Yes, I suck. I know. Well Played. Anyway, so I hit Rank 10. Then I got stuck there for about 20 games. I started reading online about how to get lower than Rank 10, because I had hit a wall.  After swapping various cards in and out of the posted deck (literally after every match, sometimes 2 or 3 at a time), I finally realized the problem was me. I decided to start tracking my stats, not modify the deck, and *learn* the deck better. 

Lo and behold, that 'insane' number of warriors I was running into that would just crucify me? Actually 6% of my games. Yeah. Maybe just memorable because I was dying so badly to them? I actually win 50% of my warrior matchups now. What was killing me was the inconsistent deck makeup and bad plays. Turns out Mage at 31% of 65 games was my most common matchup, with Hunter and Pally in #2 at 15% each. Tracking at the rank you're at, you will find a different result.

Tracking my wins by class gave me all kinds of useful intel too. Knowing mage was my most common matchup helps if you do want to change 1 or 2 cards, you think about which card you could swap to help you beat Mage decks. Much more specialized to your actual situation, as opposed to how you "feel" it is (before I would have swapped something for warriors, who I thought I lost a lot to, but who I never really play). How to mulligan against which class. Which early turn plays were better. None of this is learned if you are swapping decks every few games, or switching cards in the deck around. You really have to play one deckand "learn it's secrets". Knowing my win rate against hunters is above 80%? Makes me pretty confident going in. Playing against a pally, who I have a <50% win rate? I better really be on my toes and watching for ways to improve my game against them.

The interesting thing about tracking my stats - it improved my play. Dramatically. Starting out, my win rate with the deck was about 50%. That makes sense, since I was stuck around Rank 10 and neither going up or down. My win rate climbed up to 53% or so after I watched the YouTubes listed in the guide where Wax explains his choices and talks through a few games. After playing 30 games, I ended up making a slight alteration for the meta I was facing -Coldlight Oracle +Southsea Deckhand, but it wasn't a seat of the pants change like my other modifications I talked about before. I had tracking data on who I was losing against, and had been making notes every time I lost a game or made a misplay. For my situation, I realized having that extra deckhand would win more games for me than the oracle - and it has. My win rate jumped up above 60% with that change (over 35 games). But I could see myself going back to Oracle if my meta shifted, or if my own play improved. I wouldn't recommend anyone make a card change from the get-go. Use the deck list as provided, trust it, and only after you really get familiar with it think about changing anything. Any change I make to the deck is likely going to be that small, something like a 1 card difference. And you know what? If you swap 1 card, how many games do you have to play to evaluate that difference? It's a lot. Too many to do accurately in your head, you need to track your stats.

So once you know you're win rate is 60% and climbing? What does that mean? In simple terms, now the more I play, the higher rank I go. It's not a play 5 games and advance a rank thing though, 60% means I still lose plenty, even 3 or 4 times in a row quite often. But now I don't let that bother me, losing that often is expected with a 60% win rate. And you won't get a higher win rate with some new magical deck, rather, by improving your skill by playing the same deck better and more consistently. Guess what though? As you get in better ranks, you're playing against better players. Don't count on your win rate going up forever, it could easily drop a few point as you start playing better opponents who really punish every misplay you make.

The thing I finally realized was, this is a good deck. Played a by skilled player, not making misplays, you should get 60-65% wins at Rank 5. Hell, I can, and as we've established, I'm an awful player. I was very happy when I hit 55% wins. I'm ecstatic now that I've hit 60%. My win rate is still climbing. How high can it go? If you're Trump-good, maybe you get closer to 70%+ wins with your decks. Trump gets high win rates with his skills, not his deck choices. Anyone who's tried a "Trump Free" deck knows what I'm talking about. You can't just copy his F2P deck lists and start kicking butts. You get curb-stomped.

At some point you realized that getting to Legend or even Rank 5 is about winning consistently,  and you thought that meant having a superior deck (the Holy Grail) that wins 90% of the time. That's not how it works. This deck will get you to Legend. Any of Wax's decks will. But not all of them at once. You need to pick one, play it, learn it. Don't jump back and forth, don't start swapping out cards. I guarantee you that after 30-50 games, you will have a deep appreciation for every pick and the decision of why it was chosen over something else. If you still feel a need to swap out cards, then swap out ONE. And keep tracking the change to see if your win rate improves. Not just over 1 game. Over 30 or 40 games. Or more. Watch some of his deck explaining videos, and see if your win rate improves. You need to have played a good number of games already with the deck to get the most out of the videos, trust me. They're worth watching more than once at various stages in your journey. It took me over 20 games and watching the videos a 2nd time to figure out I was playing the Tinker's Sharpsword Oil combo wrong - /facepalm. The main combo of the deck? Yup, that one. And immediately after watching the videos I figured out what I had been doing wrong. Adding the 2nd Deckhand allows me to combo Oil more consistently at the expense of losing more drawn out games.

And here's where stat tracking comes in. To get to Legend, you need to win more games than you lose. That simple. Will a 53% win rate get you there? Sure will. What's your current win rate? I guarantee if you're not tracking it, you don't have a clue.  Before I was tracking, my win rate "felt" like a 50/50. I tell you what, you cannot "feel" the difference between a 48% win rate and a 53% win rate. One of those win rates will get you to Legend and is worth playing. The other means you need to look at your deck and learn it better. You need what, 4 or 5 stars for most levels? And if you're hopping between decks, your win rate isn't even consistent, and it's certainly not improving over time. If your edge is 53%, how many games do you need to play to be ahead 5 stars? A LOT. Yes, you can randomly win streak 5 in a row, but if you're sitting at Rank 20, 15, or 10, and thinking rank 5 or Legend is sooo far out of reach, start tracking your stats, man! What is your win rate now? What is your most common class matchup? Pick a deck, learn it, and watch as your win rate starts creeping up like magic.